After going up against Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers at home in Week 9, the Kansas City Chiefs managed to escape with a win by only putting up 13 points.
On the other side, the Las Vegas Raiders have had an insanely tumultuous few weeks. Between Jon Gruden being ousted, wide receiver Henry Ruggs facing serious criminal charges, and former first-round draft pick Damon Arnette being released, things are not going well in Vegas.
With all of this going on, the Raiders are also coming off a seven-point road loss against the New York Giants in which they were favored, scoring only 16 points in the defeat.
If we spoke about this matchup during the first few weeks of the season, we’d be expecting this game to be a lot more exciting and wondering which team could potentially be the No. 1 seed in the AFC postseason picture.
However, while both of these teams have had their standards lowered, this game will still have some playoff ramifications. Every time these teams match up, it usually ends up being a hard-fought battle.
Let’s sort through some props for this game and make some money.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, November 11.
Chiefs vs Raiders Prop Bets: NFL Week 10 Prop Betting Picks
First Score: Raiders Field Goal (+380) at Caesars
If you’ve been keeping up with my prop suggestions, I’ve been sticking with the first score being a field goal. This was my pick last week against the Packers, but instead, the Chiefs marched down the field, scored a touchdown, and then only put up six more points throughout the rest of the game.
Overall, Kansas City failed to display anything inspiring on offense. The team locks on to wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and the RPO game is just not working out. On top of that, they cannot really run the ball that well. However, I’d prefer they just run it outside as opposed to RPO’s.
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With that said, the Chiefs defense has actually been sort of decent as of late, but is still not any good. This should provide a nice springboard for Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to get the ball moving early.
The Raiders will not have the luxury of facing safety Daniel Sorenson that often since he’s been benched, but as the offense tries to readjust with DeSean Jackson coming into the fold, we could see a nice first drive, but ultimately end up with a field goal.
At (+380), I’ll take my chances with the Raiders starting off leading 3-0 over the Chiefs at home and make this my NFL bet of the day.
Winning Margin: Chiefs by 1-6 Points (+250) at Caesars
As 2.5-point road favorites, I’ll still side with the Chiefs in this one.
Kansas City’s defense is not good, but the Raiders should provide opportunities for Patrick Mahomes. This season, the Raiders have done well when it comes to rushing the passer, led by Maxx Crosby. On the offensive line, the Chiefs have been above average against the pass rush.
In order for the Chiefs to win, they just need to abandon the RPO game unless they see some different looks on defense that will allow someone other than Hill to get loose.
Outside of tight end Darren Waller, the Raiders offense is just going to be much different without a field-stretching threat. Jackson will be on the field, but you’d have to imagine he won’t have as prominent a role so quickly.
Carr should be able to play well overall, but in the end, the Chiefs will escape with a narrow victory on the road.
Chiefs Under 26.5 Points (-105) at Caesars
Speaking of narrow wins on the road, the Chiefs are just not in the right state offensively to put up more than 26.5 points.
When I saw this prop, I immediately wrote it down. Sure, this is a divisional matchup with two teams that know each other well, but the Chiefs have not topped this 26.5 total point prop since October 17, when they scored 31 against the Washington Football Team.
Since that game, the team has combined for 36 points across three games. This feels more like a low-scoring game, such as 23-20 or 20-17.
Again, the Chiefs offense just isn’t right and Carr and the Raiders offense will be lacking that explosion. At (-105), the juice here is a bit less which provides even more value.
After this game, the Chiefs have just one more game before the bye. For the sake of the team, hopefully, they can get back on track after their bye week comes and goes.