Oklahoma vs Baylor Predictions NCAAF Week 11 | College Football Pick of the Day
Are you ready for some offense? That’s exactly what the Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears will bring this Saturday, as Oklahoma hopes to advance to 10-0 and remain in the College Football Playoff conversation.
On the road in Waco, the Sooners will look to boost their résumé as they hope to clinch a CFP berth. A loss to Baylor would perhaps sink those chances, and that is not out of the realm of possibility.
The 7-2 Baylor Bears are averaging 36 points per game, while Oklahoma is currently averaging over 42 points per game. According to Pro Football Focus’s grading system, both teams are ranked inside the top 11.
Oklahoma caught a scare a few weeks back on the road against Kansas. Should they run into a game like that with Baylor, it may not end favorably for them.
With that said, let’s dive in and look at everything involving this game from a betting angle. Let’s win some money.
All NCAAF gameday odds are courtesy of TwinSpires Sportsbook. All odds and lines are accurate as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, November 10. All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
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Oklahoma vs Baylor Prediction
When looking at offense and defense, Oklahoma is better on both ends. Both coverage units are fairly average, but what helps put Oklahoma over the top is their stout pass rush led by EDGE Nik Bonitto.
So far on the season, Bonitto has 25 hurries and has also been the team’s best run defender. He’s expected to get some looks in the first round of the upcoming NFL Draft.
Back on the offensive side of the ball, Sooners quarterback Caleb Williams is playing at a level that should put him in Heisman consideration. In fact, if he continues on this same pace, he should win the award — he’s been that good.
Both Williams and Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon can move the ball with their feet, and the running game is something both defenses will have to consider.
Oklahoma running back Kennedy Brooks is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt on 130 tries with nine touchdowns, whereas Baylor lead back Abram Smith has 11 touchdowns, over 1,000 yards, and over seven yards per attempt.
In the end, Williams and Brooks will be able to outscore Baylor as Bonitto looks to crack through this Baylor offensive line.
Get ready for a high-scoring affair.
Betting Pick: Oklahoma 38, Baylor 31
Oklahoma vs Baylor Best Bets
Best Bet: Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 (-110) at TwinSpires
Don’t expect many field goals in this one.
Both defenses will surrender quite a bit through the air. The only defensive battle worth monitoring is Bonitto against this Baylor pass-blocking offensive line, which ranks third in the FBS, per PFF.
Williams will be able to march up and down the field. Baylor will be able to as well, but Bonitto should make an impact at some point in this game. When under pressure, though, Bohanon has six turnover-worthy plays, has a 38.5 completion percentage, and passes for just 5.3 yards per attempt.
Baylor cornerback Jalen Pitre has shown to be a decent coverage player this season, so he could help against this receiving core, but after that, everybody else is relatively average.
The other factor to consider is Oklahoma’s playoff hopes and Williams’ Heisman potential, even after starting only a few games.
Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 (Oklahoma @ Baylor, CFB Week 11)
Bet $20, Payout $38
Best Bet: Oklahoma Sooners Moneyline (-220) at TwinSpires
The only way Oklahoma loses this game is if the offense is sluggish and falls behind by a couple of scores. Oklahoma can make comebacks, but Baylor does have the kind of program that could make it far harder to get back into the game as opposed to Kansas or Texas.
Williams will continue to lead the way as opposed to once-thought-of No. 1 overall NFL draft pick Spencer Rattler.
Even in Waco, Oklahoma will come away with the W, making this our CFB bet of the day.
Oklahoma Sooners Moneyline (Oklahoma @ Baylor, CFB Week 11)
Bet $20, Payout $29
Best Bet: Over 63 (-108) at TwinSpires
At (-108), you’re getting better juice here, but only slightly, of course.
Unless I’m missing something, Williams should be able to pass all over Baylor and run effectively against them, while Baylor should be able to throw with some success and the running back duo of Smith and Treston Ebner should also be able to stuff the stat sheet against a relatively weak Oklahoma run defense.
Both teams average close to 70 plays per game. I’ll take my chances with the Over, especially with Williams at quarterback.
Point Total Over 63 (Oklahoma @ Baylor, CFB Week 11)
Bet $20, Payout $39
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