The Detroit Lions (0-8) are one of the worst teams in the NFL. They’re coming off their bye week, following a blowout home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) have turned their season around, winning four in a row after starting the season at 1-3.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff has really struggled this season, averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. He ranks No. 30 in EPA per play and No. 33 in air yards. Simply put, Goff has been a check-down machine.
This has caused the Lions’ offense to be among the worst in the NFL, ranking No. 3o in EPA per play. They have a lot of trouble making big plays, especially since their receiving core is highly limited.
Having said that, this looks like a good spot to ride with the Lions against the spread in a tough road game. Let’s dive in and find out why.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Friday, November 12.
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Lions vs Steelers Prediction
The Lions just lost 44-6 to the Eagles prior to their bye, but they have demonstrated the ability to keep games close. Five of their eight losses have been by 10 points or less, including two that were within a field goal.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have struggled to blow teams out. Their five wins have come by an average of 5.0 points, including two that were within a field goal.
This is because Pittsburgh has struggled to make big plays on offense. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ranks No. 32 in air yards, highlighting his difficulties making downfield throws. He’s another check-down machine at quarterback, just like Goff.
While the Steelers’ defense should cause problems for this limited Lions’ offense, it’s hard to feel comfortable laying nine points with such an underwhelming offense.
We also have to consider that Pittsburgh played on Monday night, giving them only six days of rest between games. Meanwhile, the Lions are fresh off their bye week.
Look for the Steelers to win, but the Lions should be able to keep this game within a touchdown.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Lions 16
Lions vs Steelers Best Bets
Best Bet: Lions +8 (-112) at Unibet
Wager: 2 Units
The Lions have played good teams like the Ravens and Rams close. I also have to believe that they’ll put forth a better effort coming out of their bye than what we saw against the Eagles.
I love the fact that we’re getting eight points against a limited Steelers’ offense. It’s tough for this Steelers team to cover large point spreads because they struggle to make big plays.
Look for the Lions to keep it close and make this your NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Under 43 Total Points (-110) at Unibet
Wager: 2 Units
Here we have a battle of the two biggest check-down artists in the NFL, with Jared Goff and Ben Roethlisberger ranking in the low 30s in air yards.
The Steelers’ defense should be able to contain this limited Lions’ offense. This total should be closer to what we saw on Monday night between the Bears and Steelers, which was set around 41 points.
I understand that the Lions have the worst defense in the NFL, but the Steelers offense hasn’t really shown the ability to put up points against any team.
Roll with the Under here.