Georgia vs. Tennessee Predictions NCAAF Week 11 | College Football Pick of the Day
Coming off a spread that saw the Georgia Bulldogs as 40-point-favorites (or even higher) against Missouri, the Bulldogs will now be about half of that on the road against the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Bulldogs won easily against Missouri, 43-6, but did fail to cover. The Volunteers, on the other hand, are coming off a 45-42 thriller over Kentucky.
Tennessee and Georgia may in the same conference as one another, but Georgia is overwhelmingly the better football team. Offensively, these teams have scored a similar amount of points—346 for Georgia; 344 for Tennessee—but Georgia has allowed fewer than 60 total points this season.
The Bulldogs will look to remain undefeated and head to 10-0, but will need to get by the Volunteers in Knoxville.
Who will come out with the win? Let’s dive in.
For in-depth analysis of this CFB bet of the day and others, continue reading.
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Georgia vs. Tennessee Prediction
It’s actually quite incredible to watch the absolute dominance the Bulldogs defense has illustrated this season. According to Pro Football Focus, the Bulldogs are the highest-graded defense, with a 95.5 grade. That’s out of 100.
The most points they’ve allowed in a single game this season is 13, to both South Carolina and Kentucky. They’ve also managed two shutouts.
Tennessee does have a great running attack led by quarterback Hendon Hooker and running back Tiyon Evans, but Hooker also has nine fumbles on the season.
The Volunteers will get squashed here.
Betting Pick: Georgia 34, Tennessee 10
Georgia vs. Tennessee Best Bets
Best Bet: Georgia Bulldogs -20.5 (-110) at Caesars
Looking at this game, you struggle to find a way in which the Volunteers will score. Yes, they do a nice job running the ball, which could help set up some positive field positions. But again, Hooker struggles with fumbles when rushing with the ball.
Hooker has been a fine passer overall this season with 21 touchdowns and just two interceptions, but he also has a total of six turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. Against Georgia, those turnover-worthy plays will more than likely amount to actual turnovers.
The Volunteers may be able to locate the end zone once in this game, but that may also be a stretch.
The Bulldogs don’t typically score a lot of points in the context of a college game, averaging about 38 a game. That’s still plenty of points to facilitate a 20.5 point cover.
Also, consider that the Bulldogs have only allowed 150 passing yards per game and three touchdowns in coverage all season long. This matters because when Hooker is under pressure, he’s only a 48.4 percent passer. He tends to throw the ball deep in these situations and this is where interceptions can and will more than likely happen.
Considering Hooker’s turnover potential and Georgia’s defense, led by linebacker Nakoke Dean, plus the sheer ability of the offense with either Stetson Bennett under center or JT Daniels back in his second game from injury, the Bulldogs should cover and then some.
Georgia -20.5 (Georgia @ Tennessee, CFB Week 11)
Bet $20, Payout $38
Best Bet: Georgia Bulldogs Moneyline (-1400) at Caesars
At -1400 you may not even want to bother, but make no bones about it—it may require a modern miracle for the Volunteers to beat the Bulldogs.
When going up against the Bulldogs, it’s not really a question of if you’ll win or not. It’s more a question of how much you’ll lose by.
Georgia To Win (Georgia @ Tennessee, CFB Week 11)
Bet $20, Payout $21
Best Bet: Under 55 (-110) at Caesars
Going back to Georgia’s 38 points per game, getting to 55 would require some help from the Volunteers. The Volunteers could be a decent candidate to go above the 13-point, single-game high surrendered by Georgia this season, but even if you take the Bulldogs average of 38 and give Tennessee 14, they’d still fall short of 55.
The best bet for the Over would be the Bulldogs scoring on offense and capitalizing mightily on some turnovers.
An Over/Under of 55 in a college game is usually pretty easy to take the Over on, but with Georgia, there are just no points to be scored by the other team.
Under 55 Total Points Scored (Georgia @ Tennessee, CFB Week 11)
Bet $20, Payout $38
All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).