2021 AL MVP Futures Bets: The American League offers value for Most Valuable Player (MVP) wagering, thanks to Mike Trout listing as the chalk at +200 odds at PointsBet. Three players featured in the 2021 AL MVP Betting Picks list with odds of +2500 or longer represent my favorite AL MVP betting picks, including some 2021 AL MVP sleeper favorites.
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2021 AL MVP Futures Bets
American League MVP Odds: Favorites
- Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (+200)
- Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros (+1000)
- Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (+1200)
- Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Indians (+1200)
- Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics (+1500)
- Anthony Rendon, 3B, Los Angeles Angels (+1500)
- Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees (+2500)
- Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox (+2500)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays (+2500)
- Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox (+2500)
Mike Trout, the three-time MVP (2014, 2016, and 2019), is the overwhelming favorite to win the AL MVP. Jose Abreu, the 2020 honoree, is the only other player in the top 10 betting odds who’s taken home the award.
It’s a wide-open race with tons of value presented for fading the Trout chalk pick. Jose Ramirez is a head-turning option among the top players listed above. He led MLB in FanGraphs’ measure of Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last season. Additionally, he has a pair of third-place AL MVP finishes on his resume in 2017 and 2018. Beyond Ramirez, consider these American League MVP sleeper picks for 2021.
2021 AL MVP Bet Picks
Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox (+2500)
Second-year outfielder Luis Robert flashed a bevy of skills in his rookie season. He smacked 11 homers with a .203 ISO and swiped nine bases in 11 attempts.
A 32.2 K% prevented him from a big season at the dish, though, causing him to finish with a 101 wRC+, per FanGraphs. He struck out in a more palatable 23.3% of his 467 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A combined in 2019, providing optimism for a step forward in that department this year.
Robert shined the brightest in the field. He tied for second in Outs Above Average among qualified fielders, according to Baseball Savant. Robert possesses a well-rounded skill-set for impacting games across the board and posting eye-catching statistics worthy of MVP consideration.
Shohei Ohtani, P/DH, Los Angeles Angels (+4000)
Could Trout’s teammate get some love from the 2021 AL MVP voters?
Shohei Ohtani’s two-way ability, at its best, is unique and capable of appealing to new-school, sabermetric-leaning voters and traditional, old-school, narrative-driven voters alike.
He’s coming off a forgettable 2020 campaign in which he struggled to the tune of an 82 wRC+ and was limited to two starts spanning 1.2 innings due to a forearm strain. Los Angeles Times beat reporter Maria Torres reports, “Ohtani is expected to arrive at spring training fully recovered from the forearm strain that cut short his return to the mound in 2020."
Ohtani amassed 40 homers, 22 stolen bases, and a 134 wRC+ in his first 792 plate appearances in 2018 and 2019. He also dazzled on the bump in 2018 with a 3.31 ERA, 3.65 SIERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 29.9 K% in 10 starts spanning 51.2 innings in 2018.
I’m cutting the two-way star slack for struggling in a pandemic-shortened season — and predicting that he’ll return to top form at the plate and on the mound on his way to an MVP-caliber season.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays (+5000)
Randy Arozarena captivated baseball watchers during the 2020 postseason, smashing 10 homers with a 239 wRC+ in 86 plate appearances. He wasn’t fully utilized during the regular season but made the most of his 76 plate appearances by swatting four homers, stealing four bases, and totaling a 176 wRC+.
He barrels the ball well and hits it hard, ranking tied for 59th out of 437 hitters with a minimum of 25 batted-ball events in barrels per plate appearance percentage (7.9%) and tying for 29th in flyball/line-drive exit velocity (96.8 mph).
Arozarena has 30-plus-homer potential even with regression to his HR/FB percentage inevitable.
Arozarena’s offensive contributions aren’t limited to power, either. He struck out in an uncharacteristic 28.9% of his plate appearances in the regular season but pared it down to 22.1% in the postseason while simultaneously boosting his walk percentage from 7.9% to 9.3%. His postseason plate discipline numbers align with his 9.3 BB%, and his 17.8 K% totaled in 399 plate appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels in 2019.
Those trends should play well for his stolen-base potential, and the possible ceiling on Arozarena’s total skills package makes the soon-to-be 26-year-old an offensive stalwart in the making.
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