The Atlanta Braves are currently 7-0 in the postseason at home and are just one more win at home away from winning the World Series against the Houston Astros.
It’s always special to win the World Series. But it’s another thing to win the Fall Classic in your home ballpark. The Braves are leading the Astros 3-1 through four games in the series and will have one more game at home tonight.
If the Braves win, the series is over. If the Astros win, both teams will be headed back to Houston for Game 6, and 7 (if necessary).
At this time, the Braves haven’t announced a starter for Game 5. This would usually be Charlie Morton‘s spot, but he was injured in Game 1 and is unavailable to pitch.
Not having to face Morton can only help Houston, except for the fact that the Astros have been held to two runs in their last two games on the road against Atlanta.
Will the Astros offense finally figure it out with their backs up against the wall? Here are our picks and predictions for tonight’s Game 5 of the World Series between the Astros and the Braves.
Please note that all Astros vs Braves odds and lines are current as of 11:00 A.M. EDT, October 31.
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Astros vs Braves World Series Game 5 Prediction
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, October 31, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Framber Valdez, Astros (11-6, 4.16 ERA)
- TBD, Braves
Again, the Braves will make us wait to know their starter. With Morton injured and out for the rest of the postseason, the Braves will have to rely on their bullpen one more game.
The Braves do have options, however, they surprised everyone yesterday choosing to pitch Dylan Lee, a left-handed pitcher to open game four. Lee threw just two innings in 2021 and randomly got the start for one of the biggest games of the postseason.
So tonight, anything is possible. Even left-hander Max Fried getting the start to finish off Game 5 is likely on the table. Due to Morton’s injury, the Braves added Tucker Davidson to their roster and he’s another option to start the game.
Kyle Wright, who mainly did the bulk of the work in Game 4, will not be available, but he pitched well last night to keep the Astros in check.
I would assume the Braves will start a lefty against the Astros. The Astros have a 44.8 percent ground ball percentage but a 31.5 percent line drive percentage in the last 30 days against lefties.
Meanwhile, the Astros have a confirmed starter with Framber Valdez taking the hill. Valdez has a 2.90 xFIP in the last 30 days with 22.2 percent strikeouts and 7.1 percent walks. He hasn’t been getting a whole lot of strikeouts but he’s getting plenty of ground-ball outs with a 76.9 percent of grounders in the last 30 days.
However, Valdez has an wOBA of .418 to lefties and .381 to righties in that same time frame along with an ISO of .261 to lefties and .224 to righties.
He’s been getting hit hard when he’s hit. The Braves have a .354 ISO and .470 wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days with 11 percent walks and just 18 percent strikeouts.
At home, the Braves haven’t lost in this postseason, and with the way they’ve hit lefties, it’s hard to pick against them. Valdez allowed eight hits and five runs last time out against the Braves in Game 1 of the World Series in just two innings. That could replicate tonight.
World Series Game 5 Pick: Braves 7, Astros 5
Astros vs Braves Best Bets
Best Bet: Braves Moneyline (+103) at WynnBet
Wager: 1 Unit
In every single game in the World Series, I’ve taken the Braves and it’s been very profitable. Atlanta is usually a slight underdog despite profiling very nicely in each game.
With Valdez on the mound, the Braves should break out offensively. They scored five runs on eight hits in just two innings of work against him just five days ago, with two home runs. They also put just 50 percent ground balls against Valdez in that game instead of 76.9 percent, which is what he is averaging in the last 30 days.
Read all of our 2021 World Series Game 5 Betting Tips
Best Bet: Jorge Soler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Jorge Soler has the biggest hit in the World Series. With the game tied, Soler slugged a hard line-drive over the fence to give the Braves the lead and some real momentum. Soler has a .310 ISO on the season against lefties and has absolutely slugged left-handed pitching throughout his career.
Let’s not forget, Soler smacked a home run against Valdez to start Game 1 for the Braves. He’s got a hot bat and if he’s hitting at the top of the order, there’s plenty of value here.
Best Bet: Framber Valdez Under 4.5 K’s (-170) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Valdez looks for ground ball contact and has just over 20 percent strikeouts in the last 30 days. Against the Braves in Game 1, he went 52 pitches with just two strikeouts against the Braves lineup while allowing eight hits and five runs with two home runs.
Tonight, the Astros need to win to stick around in the World Series. If Valdez gets in any kind of trouble, he’s out of this game. Take the under on his strikeout prop.