Welcome to Week 7! I started out on fire last week in the London game but finished at 6-6 after a rough afternoon slate. As usual, I’ll be looking for opportunities where players who are stepping into new or bigger roles can take advantage of some their opportunities.
Let’s see if I can re-capture some of that London magic!
All NFL gameday odds for Week 7 NFL player prop bets are current as of October 22 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Best Bet: James Winston Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Caesars
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 7
Check out the best player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool, including projections to help you make the best decisions.
Click “Place Bet" to unlock the associated sportsbook’s welcome offer and place your bet.
Learn more about NFL prop bets and the best sportsbooks for prop betting.
Best NFL Player Props Week 7
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs
Derrick Henry Under 123.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
I know Derrick Henry has smashed this total in four of his six games this season. And I really hate to bet against the big dog (hence the 0.5 units), but I think this is the week when he stays under 125 rushing yards.
The Chiefs’ defense is admittedly bad, but I think the Titans are going to be playing from behind a lot in this one. While I’m sure they’ll try to control the clock with Henry as much as they can, I’m not sure that can last much beyond the first half, so I think we’ll see Henry’s rushing opportunities limited as the game go on.
And let’s be honest, 124 yards is still a lot — even for a superhuman like Henry.
Derrick Henry Under 123.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Ryan Tannehill Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
If Henry isn’t rushing for 500 yards, where is the Titans offense going to come from?! It’s more than likely going to have to come from Tannehill’s arm as there’s a very good chance he’s going to be playing catchup with Patrick Mahomes and his supernova of an offense.
The Chiefs are giving up 287.5 passing yards a game to opposing quarterbacks, and I’m seeing a scenario where Tannehill has to throw for 40 or more times this week. He’s had to do that twice this year and he’s put up 298 and 347 passing yards in those two games.
Ryan Tannehill Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
While Mahomes isn’t running the ball as much as he did when he first came into the league, he’s still a capable runner when he needs to be. He’s topped 19 rushing yards in each of his past four games and hasn’t run for less than 26 in any of those.
At 7.08 yards per rush on the season, we probably only need three or four scrambles from Mahomes this week.
Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions
Matthew Stafford Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
I hate revenge narratives. But even I must admit this one is interesting in that we have the double-quarterback revenge game.
On Matthew Stafford’s side of things, we’ve got a Lions team that has been allowing 270.5 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. That puts Detroit basically in the middle-of-the-pack in terms of the league.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford will look to have a big day through the air when he faces his former team, the Detroit Lions, for the first time on Sunday. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
While the matchup isn’t otherworldly, Stafford’s 2021 season has been close to it as he’s currently averaging 306.3 passing yards per game. Revenge narrative aside, I think we’ll see Stafford top 300 yards again this week.
Matthew Stafford Over 288.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Jared Goff Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
Stoppable force meets immovable object. What will happen?
Jared Goff is currently averaging 250.8 passing yards per game this season but hasn’t topped 205 in his last two and has been held to under 250 in four of his six games.
While the Rams pass defense hasn’t been fantastic statistically this year, they’ve also played some much better quarterbacks than Goff and have fared well against Goff-adjacent quarterbacks in Andy Dalton (206 yards) and Daniel Jones (242 passing yards).
Jared Goff Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
Sam Darnold has come back to Earth a bit after a scorching start to the season, but he has a nice opportunity to get back on track against a Giants defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to put up 271.8 passing yards per game.
While I don’t feel great about this one (hence the 0.5 unit), I still think 235.5 is low enough that Darnold should be able to top that.
Sam Darnold Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Caesars
Robby Anderson Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
If you have Robby Anderson on your fantasy team, you already know he’s had a rough start to the season. But you might not know that he’s seen 11 targets in two of his last three games with 29 total targets during that span. Sure, he’s only caught 10 of those targets, but these things usually tend to balance themselves out.
At 12.67 yards per reception, we only need Anderson to haul in four or five passes to be happy this week. That’s very possible if he sees the number of targets he’s been seeing as of late.
Robby Anderson Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Caesars
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans
Kyler Murray Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
Kyler Murray has only rushed for a total of seven yards in his past two games. But he’s also had 14 total rushing attempts in those two games and had run for 27.25 yards per game in his first games of the season.
While I wouldn’t blame anyone for being worried about his last two outputs, I’m very much viewing those games as an anomaly and think we’ll see Murray get back to running the ball effectively this week against a weak Texans defense.
Kyler Murray Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Caesars
A.J. Green Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
The Cardinals have a lot of mouths to feed on offense, but Green has consistently been fed the ball as he’s seen exactly six targets in five of his six games this season. Averaging a whopping 16.19 yards per reception, we theoretically only need Green to catch the ball three or four times this week to hit the over here.
A.J. Green Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
Best Bet: Jameis Winston Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
To start, the Seahawks are the fourth-worst team in the league in terms of passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks at 306.2 yards per game. I wasn’t a math major in college, but that’s over 100 yards more than the total we need Jameis Winston to hit this week.
While Winston has had a very weird start to the season (he didn’t top 150 passing yards in any of his first three games), he’s been over 225 passing yards in each of his last two games. Coming off a bye week, I think we can feel good on Winston topping 205.5 passing yards against a very bad Seahawks pass defense.
Jameis Winston Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Best Bet: Geno Smith Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
Smith didn’t reward my confidence in him last week, but his yardage total came down about 20 yards so I’m going to the well again this week.
While Smith only threw for 209 yards last week, he’s facing a Saints defense that is in the bottom-10 in terms of passing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks at 285.2 yards per game.
Smith has the best group of weapons he’s ever had in his career and will likely be playing from behind this week, which should make hitting 207 or more passing yards doable.
Geno Smith Over 206.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Props Betting Record: 9-9, +1.45 Units
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 7 Best Prop Bets.
