To the individuals who bet Louisiana-Monroe to beat Liberty on the moneyline last weekend, if you exist, I salute you.
The Warhawks closed as a 33-point underdog, although they ultimately toppled Hugh Freeze and Malik Willis in an absolute thriller. In terms of upsets, this is one of the largest in recent memory, the kind of moment we love and appreciate in this weekly piece where we celebrate underdogs.
We didn’t exactly nail that level of upset, although I did have Auburn (+165) over Arkansas in Week 7. I nearly hit Tennessee over Ole Miss, although ultimately the Vols fell just short as the fans littered the field with beer cans, golf balls and mustard bottles.
Yes, it was weird.
This week could follow suit. While Week 8 might lack meaningful matchups on paper, it is no short on fascinating point spreads. And we’ve already seen No. 13 Coastal Carolina fall to Appalachian State as a small underdog. That’s a good start.
What other upsets are in store? Let’s dive in.
CFB Week 8 Upset: Miami (+3) vs. No. 18 North Carolina State
Hurricanes fans, let’s face it, it’s been a rough year.
In fact, rough probably isn’t enough.
A season that began with a blowout loss to Alabama has been filled with injuries, disappointment and losses. Miami could very well part ways with head coach Manny Diaz after the season, which says a lot about where things stand.
However, not every loss has been a blowout. In fact, Miami lost the last two games against Virginia and North Carolina by a combined five points. Last week, we saw the Hurricanes bounce back against the Tar Heels only to fall just short.
North Carolina State has had a fabulous start to the year, although the schedule has certainly allowed that. Beating Clemson, while meaningful in the moment, looks less meaningful each week. And NC State is only a few weeks removed from nearly dropping a game outright to Louisiana Tech as an 18-point favorite.
At home, Miami can finally celebrate a win. While it won’t erase all woes, it will be a much-needed win.
Prediction: Miami 37, NC State 30
Over 27 First Half Points (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Both offenses can move the football. And Miami, in recent weeks, has been turnover prone. When betting a Total, these are the two kinds of teams I want to be involved in. Although North Carolina State’s defense has played well, I don’t believe the competition completely reflects the kind of unit this is.
Miami Moneyline (+135) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The record says this is a bad bet, but the outcomes suggest this is very much possible. I like Miami (+3), although I believe the Hurricanes win outright as well.
CFB Week 8 Upset: Louisiana Tech (+6.5) vs. No. 25 UTSA
First and foremost, good for you, UTSA.
The Roadrunners are ranked, unbeaten and on the verge of a special season. At 7-0, I implore you to watch UTSA if you haven’t already.
I wanted to say all of this before telling you why they are likely to lose this week. This is an intriguing matchup on the road, and as referenced above, Louisiana Tech has been a difficult out at home.
The Bulldogs are coming off an ugly road loss to UTEP, another solid team this year. We’ve also seen them play tight with SMU and others. Playing at home for the first time in almost a month should help, and I expect this game to be much closer than the spread would indicate.
I love the value in both the points and the moneyline here, and I’ll get to that momentarily, but Louisiana Tech plays up to the competition once again and plays spoiler.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 30, UTSA 27
Louisiana Tech (+4) First Half (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Home has been comforting for the Bulldogs, and it will be again. I look for a fast start to help apply the necessary pressure to beat UTSA.
Louisiana Tech Moneyline (+210) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
We take it a step further with an outright winner. AT +210, we’re diving into getting 2/1 on our money. Louisiana Tech delivers a sizable upset that pays.
Army (+3) vs. No. 16 Wake Forest (-110) at Caesars
Like UTSA, Wake Forest finds itself unbeaten heading into the meat of the college football season. The Demon Deacons have largely done it with touchdowns, and they currently have the nation’s No. 12 scoring offense.
In recent weeks, however, the contests have become much tighter. Before a bye, Wake Forest beat both Louisville and Syracuse by three points, failing to cover in both games.
To say the schedule has been friendly is perhaps being too kind. But unbeaten is still unbeaten.
Army, of course, plays a much different style. And last week the Knights pushed Wisconsin in Madison as a two-touchdown underdog.
With a little over 400 passing yards on the year, you know what you’re getting with Army, lots and lots of rushing attempts. For Wake Forest, which currently ranks No. 92 in the nation in rushing defense, this isn’t exactly good news.
Prediction: Army 28, Wake Forest 24
Under 26 First Half Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Yes, this game will be on the gross side. For Army to compete, it must be. Although the formula here is clear. Wake Forest can’t stop the run and Army runs a lot. The clock will be moving.
Army Moneyline (+145) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
It was close against Wisconsin, and Army does one better this week. Playing at home helps in what feels like an oddly timed matchup for Wake Forest.
