Coming off of a bye week, the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) will hit the road to face the Miami Dolphins (1-5) in Week 7.
The Falcons have been surprisingly decent so far this season, while the Dolphins have failed to meet expectations. Atlanta still has Matt Ryan at the helm, but despite losing Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans, the offense still hums.
Cordarrelle Patterson has been excellent so far this season in his goal-line rushing work and pass-catching out of the backfield. Rookie tight end Kyle Pitts is looking to start his inevitable breakout. They have also received solid production from their WR1, Calvin Ridley.
The Dolphins have been a mess so far this season, evidenced by their record. Tua Tagovailoa has been hurt for the better part of the season and has played in battered shape for multiple weeks. Miami’s defense has not performed as advertised, and it appears that a team that was viewed as up-and-coming might never find their peak.
This should be an interesting matchup as the Falcons try to get back to .500 while the Dolphins fight to stay afloat.
Please note that all Falcons vs. Dolphins odds are current as of Friday, October 22. Continue reading for my Falcons vs. Dolphins predictions and best bets in the latest installment of our NFL pick of the day series.
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Falcons vs. Dolphins Prediction
The key for me in this matchup is that the Falcons are coming off of a bye week. The offense has looked passable, and while the defense has not necessarily picked up the slack, the Dolphins’ offense is nothing to be afraid of.
Tua Tagovailoa looked a lot better in his last start against the Jacksonville Jaguars, though, albeit in a loss. He went 33-for-49 with 329 passing yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. He added three rushes for 22 yards, as well.
It was a welcome sight to see Tua seem to be at nearly full strength since his September rib injury.
Matt Ryan has looked like typical Matt Ryan, going 33-for-45 with 342 passing yards and two touchdowns against the New York Jets two weeks ago.
The Dolphins are on a downswing at the moment, and the Falcons have more of the momentum, even though that isn’t saying much. I’m still backing the Falcons coming off of their bye week with some of their older legs getting rest on the offensive end.
Betting Pick: Falcons 30, Dolphins 23
Falcons vs. Dolphins Best Bets
Best Bet: Falcons -2.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1.5 units
As previously mentioned, I believe the Falcons are the better team in this matchup, and I think there is added value here given that they are coming off of a much-needed bye week.
The Dolphins don’t look like a force right now, and while the Falcons cannot necessarily be classified as one either, they are still a solid enough team to compete with Miami.
Back the Falcons and Matt Ryan, according to our NFL gameday odds, who should have no problem picking apart Miami’s lowly defense and winning by at least a field goal.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 unit
While both of these teams are not necessarily gifted offensively, they both are owners of defenses that can get exploited. I expect both offenses to put up as many points as they are capable of in this one, which admittedly is not saying much.
Still, both teams have proven in at least one week this season that they can score at least 25 points. Back the over here, but be cautious. These teams are so bad offensively that this could be boom or bust.