Last week, it was quiet around survivor pools. Most favorites won and many contestants likely survived another week. It’s not going to be this easy every week, but for most, last week was as simple as it gets.
In Week 6, we took the Los Angeles Rams, who were trailing 3-0 in the first quarter only to go up 28-3 in the second quarter. I’ll admit, I was in panic mode early on, but then again, the Rams were playing the Giants. There was no need to panic!
Anyway, Week 7 has plenty of big favorites at home against straight-up bad teams. We’ve saved most of these teams for this moment, so let’s get right to it.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 7
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck, uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. Lines are current as of Tuesday, October 19.
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2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 7
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans
The Cardinals are currently a 17.5-point favorite and can be found at a couple books as an 18.5-point favorite.
I’ll admit that I will only take the Cardinals knowing Tyrod Taylor isn’t playing for the Texans. Taylor was widely expected to return this week, but his status remains up in the air. The Texans are taking it day-by-day and have said that they’ll see where he is at later in the week.
If Taylor is playing instead of Davis Mills, I will turn to my second selection listed below.
The Cardinals are 6-0 and the only undefeated team in the NFL. They’ve been terrific offensively, scoring 33.3 points per game and have surprised defensively, allowing just 18.2 points per game.
Meanwhile, the Texans are 1-5 and have looked completely lost since Taylor was injured in in Week 2. They’ve only been competitive in one game with Mills under center and just took a deflating 31-3 defeat to the Colts last week.
The offense is only averaging 15.3 points per game, but if Taylor returns, the offense will produce, even against the Cardinals who have struggled tackling in the open field. Arizona has also been poor against the run, but they’ve led for most of each game, leading teams to pass a little bit more.
The Prediction Tracker gives the Cardinals an 89.85 percent chance of defeating the Texans on Sunday afternoon. That’s the highest percentage we’ve seen for an NFL team this year. However, if Taylor is playing, the spread might shrink a bit.
There’s still a very high chance the Cardinals win against Taylor, but he looked solid before his hamstring injury and I’d want to see him play again before betting against him.
Betting Pick: Cardinals -17.5 (-110) at Caesars
Green Bay Packers vs Washington Football Team
I’m going to think long and hard on the Cardinals over the Texans. However, my second choice will be the Green Bay Packers, who host the Washington Football Team. Again, I haven’t made a final decision just yet. I’ll know more when the Taylor news breaks.
The Prediction Tracker gives the Packers a 76.88 percent chance of winning this game, which is the fourth-highest percentage on the Week 7 slate.
The Rams and Buccaneers are solid options if you haven’t taken them already. For me personally, the Rams and Buccaneers are already crossed off my list.
The Packers have an elite offense behind Aaron Rodgers that is starting to pick up steam. The Packers are 5-1 and haven’t looked back since an embarrassing loss to the Saints in Week 1, averaging 28.2 points per game since the defeat.
Expect them to have fun offensively against a Washington team that’s allowing nearly 310 passing yards per game.
To put it lightly, the Washington Football Team’s secondary is absolutely abysmal. While the pass rush is still solid for Washington, Rodgers will be able to read the defenses and fire quick strikes to his receivers. Green Bay’s offensive line has also been one of the better units in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Packers haven’t been all that great on defense, but they still rank just outside the top 10 in points allowed. The weakest link for the Packers has been in coverage, but Washington is going to want to run the football early.
That won’t work against the Packers, however, who have allowed just 108.5 yards per game on the ground.
Betting Pick: Packers -9.5 (-110) at Caesars
Packers wideout Davante Adams has put together a terrific season thus far, logging a league-best 668 receiving yards through Week 6. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Tennessee Titans vs Kansas City Chiefs
The Titans might’ve lost star receiver Julio Jones for some more time, but that won’t stop me from thinking the they can upset the Chiefs at home. Kansas City is just 3-3 on the year and have looked terrible on the defensive end. The rushing defense has been miserable and coverage has not looked great at all.
The Chiefs are allowing 29.3 points per game, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Titans are coming off of a huge win over the Buffalo Bills, proving that they still belong in conversation of elite teams this year.
The Prediction Tracker has the Titans winning 49.34 percent of the time, yet Caesars and all other sportsbooks have the Chiefs as a 5.5-point favorite on the road. Tennessee could absolutely find a way to win this game, even if it comes down to a shootout.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals
With the Ravens at home as 6-point favorites, they’re very appealing against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the Bengals are 4-2 and have looked much better this season behind Joe Burrow and a rock-solid defense.
Lamar Jackson has been brilliant. He led the Ravens to a huge comeback win against the Colts and beat up a very good Chargers team that has been recognized as a legitimate playoff contender.
However, I wouldn’t get all excited and use them just yet. Wait it out and take the Ravens when they face a team with a losing record like the Miami Dolphins, for example.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions
Call me crazy, but this is a revenge game for Jared Goff. It’s not saying much knowing that Rams are a 15-point favorite, but there have been weeks where the Lions have resembled an actual football team.
This is a Lions team that was a 66-yard field goal away from beating the Baltimore Ravens. The defense has its bright spots and the offense will be very well prepared with Goff under center. I’m not saying this is a lock, but I’m not going to want to bet against Goff in this situation.
This game will be much closer than some would expect. Grab your popcorn!
