You must admit, seeing the No. 8 team in the country, the Oklahoma State Cowboys as a seven-point road dog against the Iowa State Cyclones definitely causes a double-take.
These teams are the cream of the crop when it comes to the Big 12.
Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy was once thought of as a dark horse early-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft, but his stock has definitely cooled off a bit. The entire Iowa State team had higher expectations but losing to Iowa and Baylor has brought them to 4-2 while the Cowboys come in at 6-0.
While the Cowboys are unbeaten, they have not exactly cruised to easy victories. Through six games, the Cowboys have won by an average of seven points per game, with their largest margin of victory coming against Kansas State by 11.
Can the Cowboys overcome their road odds and stay undefeated, or will Purdy and running back Breece Hall knock off a top-10 team in the country?
For in-depth analysis of this CFB bet of the day and others, continue reading.
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Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Prediction
While a 7-point spread might be a bit large, the Cyclones are just a better football team.
Sure, the Cowboys might have had the No. 1 defense in the Big 12, according to Pro Football Focus, but guess who sits at No. 2? The Cyclones.
The Cyclones also have a better rushing attack and better quarterback play.
Cowboys quarterback Spencer Sanders tends to get a bit too risky with the ball for my liking in a game like this and tends to melt under pressure.
Look for the Cowboys to keep up, but for Sanders to make one too many bad decisions to cost them the game.
Betting Pick: Iowa State 28, Oklahoma State 24
Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Best Bets
Best Bet: Oklahoma State +7 (-105) at DraftKings
These teams are very evenly matched when comparing the different units, but the Cyclones have better quarterback play in Purdy and a superior rushing attack with Hall.
The Cowboys will be able to pass the ball and keep up, which is why I expect them to cover here. But again, Sanders does struggle under pressure and the Cyclones have the players to do so. Under pressure, Sanders only completes just above 30 percent of his passes, and 4.9 yards per attempt, per PFF.
This season, the Cowboys are no stranger to close games. This will be another one, but instead, they’ll be on the losing side of it with their first loss. It may sound like a cliche, but one pressured interception from Sanders could be the deciding factor in this game.
Take the Cowboys with the points with reduced juice.
Best Bet: Iowa State Moneyline (-260) at DraftKings
If you wanted to hedge here and go for the Cowboys moneyline, that wouldn’t be a terrible idea, but removing the spread and picking straight up, there just isn’t a single matchup or metric that indicates the Cowboys winning this game.
The Cyclones have the edge in quarterback play, the running game, and receiving options. The teams are a bit more evenly matched defensively, but eventually; talent will win out as the game progresses. There’s no denying the Cyclones just have a better offense from top to bottom.
Cyclones EDGE Will McDonald will be on a mission to pressure Sanders throughout the night.
Best Bet: Over 47 (-110) at Caesars
This game should stay close enough that will make it so each team will need to pass the ball to stay in it. For the Cyclones, Hall is good enough to also gash opposing defenses, with 20 runs this season of 10 or more yards. Hall has also scored a touchdown in every game this season.
Again, it’s not like the Cowboys are a bad team. They’re 6-0 for a reason, they’ll find a way to score points.
For Purdy, he also struggles against pressure like Sanders, but not to the same effect. The silver lining is that when Purdy is under pressure, he tends to want to push the ball downfield, amassing a 12.1 average depth of target, per PFF.
It also goes against my personal belief that totals down in this range for College Football are an excellent “over" opportunity.
This is going to be an exciting game that could even go beyond the 28-24 prediction outlined above.
All statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
