The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins may play in the same division, but that’s where the similarities end. The Bills sit atop the AFC East at 4-2 and are arguably the best all-around team in football this year, while the Dolphins have sunk to the bottom of their division following a 1-6 start.
Yes, the Dolphins have been even worse than the New York Jets.
Miami has lost six straight games while Buffalo appears to be gearing up for a possible Super Bowl run. The Bills are also coming off a bye week, which makes this road game even more challenging for the Dolphins, who are searching for their first victory since Week 1.
Let’s dig into our Dolphins vs Bills predictions and best bets for this AFC East matchup. Please note that all NFL Week 8 odds and lines are current as of 12 PM EST on Friday, October 29.
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Dolphins vs Bills Prediction
While the Bills will win this game pretty handily, it’s worth noting that Tua Tagovailoa has played well since returning from injury in Week 6. Tua has completed 75% of his passes over his last two games while throwing for 620 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Against pressure, however, his performance is another story. According to Pro Football Focus, Tua has thrown two touchdowns, four interceptions, and has a total of five turnover-worthy plays on dropbacks where he was blitzed or under pressure.
That spells trouble for the Dolphins against an elite Bills defense that’s allowing the second-fewest points per game in the NFL this year at 16.3. Buffalo’s also tallied 14 sacks and 33 quarterback hits through their first six games, so Tua will likely be under duress and pressured into at least one turnover.
Regardless of how Tua plays, Miami’s defense has been their fatal flaw this season. The Dolphins rank second-to-last in the NFL with 29.6 points allowed per game and have surrendered at least 23 points in every game since Week 1. Their defense has been incapable of stopping anybody, even mediocre offenses such as the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Even if Tua plays well, it’s hard to envision the Dolphins’ defense putting up much resistance against the NFL’s second-highest scoring offense. This projects to be an easy win for Buffalo.
Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 13
Dolphins vs Bills Best Bets
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -14 (-110) at WynnBET
Wager: 1 Unit
If you’ll recall, Tua’s injury occurred during a 35-0 home loss to Buffalo in Week 2. While he didn’t last long in that game, he was under heavy fire before being hurt on a fourth-down sack.
Tagovailoa can expect to face a lot of pressure in this game as well and may struggle as a result. The Bills’ defense will prevent him from keeping pace with Josh Allen and co., who should have no problem overpowering Miami’s porous defense.
Expect the Bills to score with ease and shut the Dolphins down at home. All four of Buffalo’s wins have come by at least 18 points, so they should have no problem outscoring Miami by at least two touchdowns in our NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 Total Points (-110) at BetRivers
Wager: 1 Unit
The Over could be tempting here given Tagovailoa’s success throwing the ball during his last few games, but I wouldn’t recommend it. When you factor in his struggles under pressure and the talent of Buffalo’s defense, this could definitely be a rough game for him.
The Bills will score, but I’m not sure the Dolphins will put enough points on the board to push the total over 50 based on our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills Moneyline (-900) at WynnBET
Wager: 1 Unit
Do we really need to dissect this one? Sure, betting a moneyline at -900 is never ideal, but betting on the Dolphins moneyline is the equivalent of throwing money off an 90-story balcony.
The Bills will win easily at home, and this is as close to a lock as you’re going to find this week.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 8 Dolphins vs Bills Prop Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 8 Power Rankings.