2021 NLDS Game 4 Predictions | Brewers vs Braves Best Bets & Projections

Posted: Oct 12, 2021Last updated: Oct 12, 2021

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers have finally announced starters for Game 4 of the NLDS.

The Atlanta Braves are up two games to one against the Milwaukee Brewers in a best-of-five series. Therefore, if the Braves end up winning Game 4, they’ll move on to the NLCS to face the winner of the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants series.

If the Brewers end up winning Game 4, both teams will travel back to Milwaukee for the winner-take-all game.

Here’s a breakdown of what will be in store for Tuesday’s matchup between the Brewers and the Braves.

Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Game 4 Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, October 12, 5:15 PM EST on TBS

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Eric Lauer, Brewers (7-5, 3.19 ERA)
  • Charlie Morton, Braves (14-6, 3.34 ERA)

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It took a while to figure out both starters for today’s game between the Brewers and Braves.

It looks like the Braves are going for the win in Game 4, at home, while they have the chance, and will pitch ace pitcher Charlie Morton. Meanwhile, the Brewers elected to stay away from Corbin Burnes and hope he can pitch in Game 5 if there is one.

The Brewers will instead pitch Eric Lauer, a left-handed pitcher that has a 3.94 xFIP in the last 30 days. Lauer makes the most sense if Burnes isn’t getting the start, knowing Adrian Houser already pitched in yesterday’s game.

Lauer has struck out 29.9 percent of batters in the last 30 days but has induced just 33.3 percent ground balls and has allowed 21.4 percent of line drives along with 64.3 percent hard contact.

Oddly enough, the Braves really haven’t faced many left-handed pitchers in the last 30 days. Therefore, as a group, they’ve hit a .083 ISO and .262 wOBA based on an average of about 14 plate appearances each.

Lauer has held the Braves to a .222 average in 23 at-bats this season, surrendering one home run to Ozzie Albies.

On the other hand, the Braves will pitch Charlie Morton, who had a 3.34 ERA in the regular season. In the last 30 days, Morton had a 3.57 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 31.1 percent and a walk rate of 7.5 percent.

The Brewers have struggled against Morton with 19 hits in 101 at-bats, with Willy Adames and Omar Narvaez having homers against Morton. But in 103 at-bats, the Brewers lineup only has accumulated five extra-base hits against him.

However, Milwaukee is crushing righties with 29.3 percent line drives and a .192 ISO. They simply profile better and should have half their lineup batting from the left side against Morton.

This will be another low-scoring affair, but I like the Brewers to find a way late in this game.

Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Game 4 Pick: Brewers 3, Braves 2


Brewers vs. Braves NLDS Game 4 Best Bets

Best Bet: Brewers Moneyline (+140) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Neither offense has been electric in this series, but there’s reason to believe the Brewers can find some offense to force a Game 5.

The Brewers have hit nearly 30 percent line drives against righties in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, the Braves will send out a full lineup of righties that have struggled against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days.

Best Bet: Brewers Over 3.5 Team Total (+102) at FanDuel

Wager: 1.30 Unit

Again, the Brewers profile nicely against Morton, despite struggling against him in Game 1. I’d like to believe the Brewers will have a better game plan coming into this game, going up against Morton for the second time in four games.

Morton has walked 8.8 percent of lefties and has given up plenty of hard contact to lefties. Those lefties could drive home some righties that stay patient at the plate and walk.

Best Bet: Rowdy Tellez Over .5 Hits (-185) at DraftKings

Wager: .5 Units

Rowdy Tellez has smashed his last 10 righties he’s faced with a .556 ISO and wOBA of .505. Every time he’s put the ball in play, it’s been a line drive against righties.

Tellez has one hit in six at-bats against Morton but just two strikeouts. If Tellez puts the ball in play, good things tend to happen against righties. He’s red hot and might get some of those Braves bullpen pitchers later in the game if he can’t get Morton for a hit. It’s a bit juiced but worth it at this price.

Author

Jason Radowitz

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