The Texans still haven’t notched a win since their Week 1 defeat of the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they came very close in Week 5 before succumbing to the New England Patriots, 25-22.
Rookie quarterback Davis Mills turned in an outstanding out-of-nowhere effort that included 312 passing yards and three touchdowns, while receiver Chris Moore stepped up with an equally surprising 5-109-1 line.
The Colts lost in crushing fashion to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, allowing 16 fourth-quarter points to send the game to overtime and then yielding a 10-play, 68-yard scoring march during the extra period to drop a 31-25 decision.
Indy certainly put up plenty of encouraging offensive statistics in the loss as Carson Wentz posted a 402-yard, two-touchdown effort, while Jonathan Taylor contributed a 76-yard catch-and-run touchdown grab as part of a 3-116-1 line through the air.
However, the defense also gave up 523 total yards, a whopping 504 of them to Lamar Jackson (442 passing, 62 rushing).
Both teams will therefore be striving to get over major disappointments in this Week 6 AFC South showdown. Let’s take a closer look to see which side to take in this latest matchup in the NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all NFL Week 6 odds and lines are current as of 5 PM EST on Friday, October 15.
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Texans vs. Colts Prediction
The Colts’ already nightmarish start to the season got exponentially worse with Monday night’s crushing blow.
Although there are plenty of encouraging signs on the offensive side of the ball as Wentz has progressively gotten healthier from his pair of ankle sprains, the defense has struggled to slow down any team not named the Miami Dolphins.
The secondary has been especially poor, as they have surrendered 15 touchdowns and only have 3 interceptions.
While Mills, as a rookie quarterback, could easily regress week-to-week, the command he displayed versus the scheme of an elite defensive mind like Bill Belichick in Week 5 certainly can’t be overlooked.
The Stanford product could very well be progressing with the more reps he gets, certainly not out of the question for a young player who was thrown into the fire when Tyrod Taylor went down with a hamstring injury just before halftime in Week 2.
The Colts should also be able to make plenty of inroads against the Texans’ defense, even as Houston is playing better overall on that side of the ball than in recent seasons.
David Culley’s squad is allowing a respectable 257.0 passing yards per game (225 per road game), although their work against opposing ground attacks requires more improvement (134.8 rushing yards per contest allowed).
Indy’s offense should be able to achieve balance, even if it starts a bit sluggishly due to the MNF hangover, with Taylor, who generated a 29-174-1 line on the ground and a 7-56-1 tally through the air versus the Texans in two games last season.
With Indianapolis playing on a rest disadvantage, I can see a tight, lower-scoring first half. However, Indy’s superior talent should rise to the top in the second half, allowing the Colts to pull away for a close home victory.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts 27, Houston Texans 20
Texans vs. Colts Best Bets
Best Bet: Texans +10 (-110) at BetMGM
As already highlighted, the Colts will certainly be at what would have to be considered a significant rest disadvantage for this contest and continue to deal with key injuries on defense.
Meanwhile, the Texans have to have built some confidence in both Mills and their offense in general with Sunday’s performance.
While I predict an Indy win as noted above, I don’t necessarily think it will be a blowout victory, and this is a large number. The Colts are also just 10-10-1 as a home favorite since Frank Reich took over the head coaching reins in 2018.
Best Bet: Over 43.5 (-110) at Caesars
The Texans are allowing 28.2 points per contest, while the Colts aren’t far behind them with 25.6 per game allowed. What’s more, those figures bump up to 35.5 and 27.5, respectively, when utilizing the home/road splits that apply in Week 6.
Wentz certainly showed he’s getting increasingly healthier and more comfortable with his new teammates in Monday night’s shootout in Baltimore, while Mills has a growing rapport with Moore and Chris Conley, in addition to the explosive Brandin Cooks.
This number is a very low threshold to clear as well, putting me in the camp of the Over.
Best Bet: Texans Over 16.5 (-105) at BetMGM
The Texans managed just nine points in Mills’ first two games as a starter (they all actually came in a Week 3 loss to the Panthers) before Sunday’s improved effort against the Patriots.
Mills and Houston’s stable of veteran backs should be able to get to at least 17 points in this spot against what could once again be a short-handed Colts defense and is sure to be a bit of a fatigued unit after the OT loss Monday night.
Indianapolis has also allowed at least 25 points in four of its first five games, and they gave up 17 to the Dolphins in the one instance in which they fell under that number.