The panic button is being hammered in Kansas City. Last year’s Super Bowl runner-up, the Chiefs have struggled to a 2-3 record out of the gate, allowing a league-high 163 points through five weeks of play.
Luckily for KC, their Week 5 matchup comes against the Washington Football Team. Washington looked to be one of the strongest defensive units in the league on paper heading into the season, yet trail only the Chiefs with 155 points allowed up until this point in the season.
Can Patrick Mahomes carry his team to victory? Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been placed on Injured Reserve, and superstar receivers Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce picked up injuries of their own in Week 5.
Washington’s injuries are known, with Antonio Gibson continuing to impress as the lead back in spite of playing through an ankle injury and Taylor Heinicke playing acceptable football following an early season trip to the IR for Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Injuries to their receivers continue to be an issue, with all of Logan Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Dyami Brown all missing or leaving last week’s game.
Kansas City absolutely has to win this game regardless of the status of key players. As long as Mahomes is on the field, the talent disparity at QB is too much for lesser teams to have a chance to compete.
With that said, let’s dive in the NFL pick of the day series. All odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 15 at 4 PM EST.
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Chiefs vs Washington Prediction
KC ran into the buzz saw that is Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night. 38-20 was the final score of the ugly loss, bringing the Chiefs’ point differential on the season to -9.
Thankfully, Kelce and Hill are not expected to miss any time. As two of the most dominant forces at their positions in the NFL, injury updates on these two are important enough to impact the line on this game.
Depth isn’t a strong suit for skill position players in Kansas City, but Mecole Hardman and Darrel Williams did solid work filling in for the injured players ahead of them. Williams should get the start this week with CEH sidelined, and Jerrick McKinnon should continue to be mixed in more after registering a season-high in snap percentage on Sunday night.
There is no replacing Kelce’s production. As someone who has never had a stinger, his injury sounds no fun at all, albeit better than being stuck in concussion protocol.
Kansas City should bounce back and put up numbers this week. To make it back to the championship game, the main concern for Andy Reid is getting his defense in gear.
On top of allowing the most points in the NFL, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most passing yards in the league. This isn’t a special teams issue or the offense continually turning over the ball allowing for strong field position for the opposition — the Kansas City defense simply hasn’t been able to stop the ball.
Coming off an ugly home loss of their own to the Saints, the Washington Football Team will do their best to put up points with whoever is left on the field for them in Week 6. Their clear alpha receiver is Terry McLaurin who New Orleans successfully neutralized last week, holding him to 4 catches and 46 yards on 11 targets.
In Week 5, no Washington receiver finished with more than 5 receptions despite 41 pass attempts by Heinicke. Logan Thomas’ backup Ricky Seals-Jones led the way with 5 catches of his own, a promising performance by the young TE who has done little to start his career.
The passing game has been unimpressive. One positive takeaway from the first five games for Washington is that they have allowed the least amount of sack yards in the league. Heinicke is an athletic signal caller who has the ability to escape the pocket and take the ball into his own hands when needed.
Rushing yards haven’t came much easier for Washington, either. They sit at No. 11 in the league with 4.0 yards per carry, which is reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
Antonio Gibson is an extremely promising second year talent. A stress fracture in his his shin that he’s trying to power through is putting a damper on his talent, however. JD McKissic continues to see involvement as the change of pace back, and will continue to get touches regardless of Gibson’s injury status.
Even if Washington is mediocre on offense, the Chiefs defense is worse. This won’t be enough to win the game, but it should at least give Washington’s home crowd something to cheer for come Sunday.
Prediction: Chiefs 34, Washington 24
It will be essential to keep an eye on the status of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill throughout the week, as the availability of Kansas City’s offensive stars could determine the outcome of their matchup with the Washington Football Team. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Chiefs vs Washington Best Bets
Best Bet: Chiefs -6.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Wager: 2 Units
Kansas City is in need of a confidence boost as much as they are in need of a win. I don’t expect the brakes to be pumped on offense, which makes this our NFL bet of the day.
One would think a WFT defense headlined by Chase Young, Landon Collins, and William Jackson would be a force to be reckoned with. That has been far from the case in 2021.
This looks like a classic spot for a Hill or Kelce nuclear performance. Maybe we even see Josh Gordon have his first impact performance for his new team. What I do know is that the Chiefs absolutely cannot afford to drop to 2-4 in the middle of their dynasty run.
Patrick Mahomes will strike back with a vengeance, kicking off what should be a nice three-game win streak, as KC’s next two opponents are the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants.
Rest assured, their focus will solely be on getting back on track against a team who is more deserving of their 2-3 record.
Best Bet: Over 54.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
This will be one of the most popular bets industry-wide this weekend, which makes sense considering how terrible the defense of both teams has been this year. However, I’m bringing my wager down to 1 unit due to the uncertainty of what exactly Washington can do on offense.
Kansas City has allowed a 100-yard receiver in every game except for Week 1 against the Browns, where they allowed 321 total yards to 9 different Cleveland receivers instead.
McLaurin will certainly be the main point of focus to stop by KC’s defense. If they can manage to slow him down, there really isn’t anyone that can break loose on Washington. No disrespect to Adam Humphries, he’s just not a deep threat.
Mahomes and crew can put up 40 with ease here. My concern is how well Washington can respond when they have the ball. I’d be comfortable betting the Over up to 58 points before I’d call it a push.
Any surprise injury downgrades to Hill or Kelce would be terrifying as well. Tread cautiously.
Dane’s Best Bets Record: 11-10
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