2021 NLDS Game 3 Predictions | Brewers vs Braves Best Bets & Projections

Last Updated: Oct 11, 2021

After splitting the first two games of the NLDS in Milwaukee, the Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers will square off in a pivotal Game 3 in Atlanta.

Following a 3-0 loss in Game 2, the Brewers will send All-Star starter Freddy Peralta to the bump for Game 3 against Ian Anderson, who is in his second MLB season. Offense has been hard to come by in this series with just six total runs over the first two games, but perhaps we’ll see more scoring with a change of scenery in Game 3.

Below are our NLDS Game 3 predictions and best bets for Brewers vs Braves. Please note that all MLB gameday odds and lines are current as of 11 AM EST on Monday, October 11.

Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Prediction

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves, October 11, 1:07 PM EST on TBS

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Freddy Peralta, Brewers (10-5, 2.81 ERA)
  • Ian Anderson, Braves (9-5, 3.58 ERA)

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In Game 2, the Braves evened the series with a 3-0 victory behind Max Fried, who’s been dominant in the second half. For Game 3, however, they’ll lean on a young pitcher who has struggled recently.

The 23-year-old Anderson faded down the stretch of his first full season. Perhaps feeling overused, he allowed a 4.39 ERA and 5.98 FIP over his final five starts. He also surrendered seven home runs during that span, and his results likely would have been even uglier were it not for his good fortune on batted balls (.203 BABIP).

Anderson also doesn’t miss a ton of bats, averaging fewer than a strikeout per inning this season. Peralta, on the other hand, compiled an outstanding 12.2 K/9 rate and 0.97 WHIP this year, while his 3.12 FIP supported his 2.81 ERA. On a per-inning basis, he was one of the best pitchers in the National League this year.

Accordingly, look for Milwaukee’s lineup to score some runs against Anderson while Peralta keeps Atlanta in check.

Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Pick: Brewers 3, Braves 1

Brewers vs Braves NLDS Game 3 Best Bets

Best Bet: Brewers Moneyline (+101) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Milwaukee may be on the road, but they have the clear advantage at starting pitcher in Game 3. Anderson has been trending in the wrong direction lately and could continue to struggle against a Brewers lineup that is due for a breakout.

Peralta has been more reliable this year and is the more seasoned starter, so he’s less likely to get rattled in this crucial postseason matchup.

Best Bet: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-105) at BetMGM

Wager: 1.43 Units

Peralta was one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this year, fanning 33.6% of all batters he faced. He’s in a prime spot to rack up plenty of whiffs today against a Braves offense that posted MLB’s ninth-highest strikeout rate this year at 24.0%.

Assuming Peralta lasts four or five innings, he should be able to notch at least six punchouts, which he did in 22 of his 28 regular-season appearances this year.

Best Bet: Under 8 Total Runs (-112) at Unibet

Wager: 1.25 Units

Atlanta’s roster has gone 7-for-45 against Peralta (.156) while Milwaukee’s roster is just 1-for-16 against Anderson. Both teams haven’t found much success against the opposition and while it’s a small sample size, it’s still worth noting. With both offenses struggling, I’m taking the Under for my MLB bet of the day.


Jason Radowitz

Jason Radowitz is a jack of all trades when it comes to writing sports. Jason writes and bets the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB when the sports are in season. Currently, he's a Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day providing daily content in the MLB. Earlier in his sports career, Jason was a graduate assistant for the University of Hartford Men's Basketball team using analytics and numbers to help put together the winningest season in program history. With his articles, you will be sure to get an analytical approach.

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