2021 ALDS Game 4 Predictions | Rays vs Red Sox Best Bets & Projections

Last Updated: Oct 11, 2021

The ALDS between the Rays and Red Sox is shaping up to be one of the best series in recent memory. It has been a back-and-forth display of offense and timely heroics.

The Rays took Game 1 by a score of 5-0 and evaluators began to count the Red Sox out. However, Boston came back with a vengeance, taking both Games 2 and 3 thanks to impressive offensive displays. The Red Sox tallied 20 hits and 14 runs in Game 2 and continued the hot hitting into Game 3, posting 15 more hits and scoring six runs in an extra-innings victory.

Boston catcher Christian Vazquez provided the heroics on Sunday with a two-run, walk-off homer in the 13th inning to send Tampa Bay to the brink of elimination.

Will the Red Sox win the series on Monday night or will the Rays even the series and push it to a winner-take-all Game 5? Let’s take a look at my ALDS Game 4 Rays vs Red Sox predictions and best bets.

Please note that all ALDS Game 4 odds and lines are current as of 5 PM EST on Monday, October 11.

Rays vs Red Sox ALDS Game 4 Prediction

Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, October 11, 7:07 PM EST on FS1

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Collin McHugh, Rays (6-1, 1.55 ERA)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox (13-8, 4.74 ERA)

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The Red Sox will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the bump to try and advance to the ALCS. Rodriguez has not pitched well in his postseason career, sporting an 8.49 ERA across nine appearances (two of which were starts). One of those starts came in Game 1, in which Rodriguez allowed two earned runs in 1.2 innings of work before getting a quick hook from Red Sox manager Alex Cora.

The Rays will roll with Collin McHugh, who pitched well for them out of the bullpen this year and will likely serve in an opener capacity. Beyond that, Tampa Bay will have to patch the rest of the game together with their bullpen.

I’m expecting the full-on offensive battle to continue in this game given the lack of consistency from both Rodriguez and the Rays’ bullpen. It’s unclear which team carries the true pitching advantage, but the Rays have exhausted most of their bullpen and will need to get outs from anyone after a 13-inning thriller on Sunday.

I like the Red Sox to end this series in Game 4 as they have the better-rested pitching staff and the hotter lineup.

Rays vs Red Sox Game 4 Pick: Red Sox 7, Rays 4

Rays vs Red Sox Game 4 Best Bets

Best Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-115) at BetMGM

Wager: 1 Unit

I’m backing the Red Sox in this one for a variety of reasons. Not only are they playing this game in Boston in front of their home crowd, but they have also been the better offensive team in back-to-back games. Red Sox batters will be facing a lot of tired Rays relievers in Game 4 and that will certainly be a welcome sight to the already red-hot Boston lineup.

Back the home team with the hot bats and better-rested pitching staff.

Best Bet: Rays/Red Sox Over 9.5 Runs (+100) at BetMGM

Wager: 1 Unit

The total of 9.5 is a little high, but with the way this series has been going for both clubs, I find it to be a fair total. The over has hit in each of the last two games, with Game 2 going over by a wide margin. With uncertainty in the Rays’ pitching staff and the substandard postseason past for Eduardo Rodriguez, expect scoring early and often in this one.

Back the Over on BetMGM as both of these offenses should be in good situations on Monday night.


Daniel Preciado

Daniel Preciado is a current student at Syracuse University in the sports analytics program where he is minoring in economics. He is a yearly participant in numerous high-stakes fantasy leagues across multiple sports. Prior to joining The Game Day, Daniel Preciado has written for The Action Network, FanSided, and Fantrax.

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