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2021 ALDS Game 3 Predictions | Rays vs Red Sox Best Bets & Projections

Posted: Oct 10, 2021Last updated: Oct 10, 2021

After a decisive Game 2 victory in which the Red Sox scored 14 runs and had 20 hits, they will head to Fenway Park with a tied series against the Rays.

Boston was always capable of this type of offensive explosion, but they put it into action in Game 2 and will look to continue that on their home turf.

These two teams played each other 19 times during the regular season, but will now play at least two more games in this series to seal the fate of an AL East competitor.

Will the Red Sox take the series lead in front of their home crowd? Or will the Rays steal one back on the road? Let’s discuss my ALDS Game 3 Rays vs Red Sox predictions and best bets.

Please note that all ALDS Game 3 odds and lines are current as of 2 p.m. EST on Sunday, October 10.


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Rays vs Red Sox Game 3 Predictions

The Rays will turn to Drew Rasmussen (4-1, 2.84 ERA) to start Game 3 and the Red Sox will have their big game pitcher on the mound in the form of Nathan Eovaldi (11-9, 3.75 ERA).

Rasmussen was solid in his role for Tampa Bay this season. He will likely be used as a bulk reliever but will be receiving the start regardless. Expect him to go 3-4 innings in this one.

Eovaldi, on the other hand, is well-rested after pitching a gem in the AL Wild Card Game against the Yankees. The right-hander has had an amazing postseason career, evidenced by a 1.63 ERA across seven appearances.

Eovaldi faced the Rays a total of four times this season and pitched quite well overall. He did allow five earned runs in St. Petersburg on July 31, but outside of that start, he has only allowed two earned runs across 21 innings of work.

Rasmussen faced the Red Sox five times in 2021, but mostly in relief outings. He compiled 15.2 innings against Boston, allowing four earned runs and striking out 14 batters.

I give the Red Sox the pitching advantage in Game 3 and riding their hot offense is the play here.

Rays vs Red Sox Game 3 Pick: Red Sox 6, Rays 4

Rays vs Red Sox Game 3 Best Bets

Best Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-120) at BetMGM

Wager: 1 Unit

I cannot reasonably go against the Red Sox with how good their offense looked in Game 2. Eovaldi on the mound is another key point that drives me in Boston’s favor. The Rays’ outstanding bullpen had a full day of rest, but they are still somewhat depleted after having to string together 6+ innings of work in Game 2.

Back the hot offense and the better starting pitcher in Game 3. Red Sox all the way.

Best Bet: Rays/Red Sox OVER 8.5 Runs Scored (-120) at BetMGM

Wager: 1 Unit

The Red Sox and Rays combined for 20 runs in Game 2 and while I’m not expecting that to happen again, I am expecting these two teams to show off their offensive firepower at Fenway.

Rasmussen and Eovaldi are both great pitchers, but these are two elite offensive forces. While 20 runs is a lot to ask for, half that will do.

Author

Daniel Preciado

Daniel is a current student at Syracuse University in the sports analytics program where he is minoring in economics and cognitive science. He is an occasional guest speaker for the Society of American Baseball Research and is a yearly participant in numerous high-stakes fantasy leagues across multiple sports. Prior to joining The Game Day, Daniel has written for Prospects Live, Fantrax, FanSided, and countless Dodgers blogs.

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