I was able to redeem myself somewhat last week with a 9-2 record, but I need to continue that level of success this week and I will repeat a lot of what worked. Looking for opportunities in which a player is being cast into a bigger role or a team has a great matchup that presents value.
Now that we’re one month into the season, we have some larger data sample sizes to work with which is key to winning NFL props.
All NFL gameday odds for Week 5 player prop bets are current as of October 8 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Best Bet: Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (+105) at Caesars
For in-depth analysis on this NFL bet of the day and others, continue reading.
Best NFL Player Prop Bets to Make in Week 5
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Best NFL Player Props Week 5
Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets
➕ Zach Wilson Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
➕ Zach Wilson Over 36.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115) at Caesars
➕ Zach Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit on Passing Yards/Touchdowns; 0.5 Unit on Longest Pass Completion
I was on Zach Wilson last week, as I thought the Jets had a real shot to win outright. Fortunately, they did just that.
Their schedule had been brutal, and it was time they were able to get a reasonable opponent. I think the same thing here this week against the Falcons, which is in London on a neutral field.
Sometimes the London games can be tricky, as you don’t know how the team is preparing. But Wilson hit two deep balls last week for 54 and 53 yards, and the Falcons defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and has not recorded an interception this season. Moreover, They have allowed 11 passing touchdowns, which is tied for worst in the league.
Zach Wilson Over 244.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Zach Wilson Over 36.5 Longest Pass Completion (-115) at Caesars
Zach Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110) at Caesars
➕ Matt Ryan Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
The Jets have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 264 passing yards in three consecutive games, and the only one that went over was 270 (Robby Anderson had a 57 yard-reception in that game for Carolina). They have also allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league.
Matt Ryan has gone over this prop total twice, but context is king, as they were against Tampa Bay and Washington — two of the worst passing defenses in the league. Without Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage, Ryan will have a tough time getting to 264 this week.
Matt Ryan Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-110) at Caesars
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers
➕ Kareem Hunt Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
WAGER 1.5 Unit
Kareem Hunt has gone over this prop in three consecutive games with 51, 81, and 69 yards rushing, respectively. This game sets up to be another run-heavy affair for the Browns, as they will want to keep the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands.
Another factor is Baker Mayfield playing with a torn labrum. The Browns will look to limit the number of passing attempts to protect Mayfield, but he also hasn’t been as effective since sustaining the injury.
Mayfield has a 53% completion rate over the last 2 weeks vs 82% in the first two weeks. The Chargers are also allowing the third-highest yards per carry at 5.3.
Kareem Hunt Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-120) at Caesars
➕ Justin Herbert: Under 287.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
The Browns have held opponents to 220, 1, and 190 passing yards over the last 3 weeks. Granted two of those teams were the Texans and Bears, but to do it against the Vikings was impressive.
If the Browns continue with the ground and pound dominance, Herbert just won’t get enough passing attempts to get close to this prop in which he has gone under in two straight games.
Justin Herbert: Under 287.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Justin Herbert has gotten off to a strong start in 2021, though he may run into some difficulties this week when his Los Angeles Chargers meet the Cleveland Browns. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
➕ Derrick Henry Over 107.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 0.5 Unit
➕ Derrick Henry Over 23.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) at Caesars
WAGER 1.0 Unit
Derrick Henry has been in beast mode as of late after being shutdown in Week 1. That was more of the way the game was played, as the Titans got down big early to the Cardinals.
They should be able to have control of this game early against a Jaguars defense that ranks near the bottom in most categories. Henry has rushed for 182, 113, and 157 in his last 3 games and carried it 35, 28, and 33 times.
Derrick Henry Over 107.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Derrick Henry Over 23.5 Rushing Attempts (-120) at Caesars
➕ A.J. Brown Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
A.J. Brown is back after sitting out last week with a hamstring injury. Julio Jones is still out, which means more focus on Brown for the Titans passing offense.
The Jaguars defense has just 1 interception on the season and allow a league-high 9.1 net yards per pass attempt. I think Ryan Tannehill will look to hit Brown deep early in this game, which makes the Over even more attractive.
A.J. Brown Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
➕ Laviska Shenault Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 1 Unit
Once D.J. Chark went to IR with an ankle injury, it was time to fire up Laviska Shenault. Chark’s 22 targets will first be distributed to Shenault and then James Robinson.
Shenault went for 50 yards in Week 1 and 48 in Week 3, but exploded for 99 last week against the Bengals. The Titans are allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and have allowed at least 280 passing yards in 3 out of 4 games.
Laviska Shenault Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars
Best NFL Player Prop Bets Today
➕ Best Bet: Dalton Schultz: Over 4.5 Receptions (+105) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
Dalton Schultz has hit this over in 3 out of 4 games with 6 receptions. With Michael Gallup out and Amari Cooper not at 100 percent, he has become a prime target for Dak Prescott. With this week’s game coming against the Giants at home, I would lean on him to hit the Over again.
Dalton Schultz: Over 4.5 Receptions (+105) at Caesars
➕ Best Bet: Trey Sermon Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
WAGER 2 Units
Trey Sermon had 19 carries for 89 yards last week against the Seahawks, while Elijah Mitchell was out with a shoulder injury. Mitchell did participate in Friday’s practice, but I would expect the 49ers to lean on Sermon more this week until he is back to full health.
Even in Week 3, he was able to get 31 yards rushing on 10 carries which would go over this week’s total. Sometimes a number is just so low that you have to take it and go over.
Trey Sermon Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars
Michael Rathburn 2021 NFL Betting
- Overall record: 17-16 (-3.00 units)
- Last week: 9-2 (+6.93 units)
- Week 3: 2-6 (-4.43 units)
- Week 2: 3-4 (-2.17 units)
- Week 1: 3-4 (-3.33 units)
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