Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5. Both teams have started the year 3-1 and have aspirations of making a playoff run come January.
With plenty of star power on both offenses, there’s a wide array of tantalizing prop bets to look into. Will Cincy’s second-year signal-caller outduel the reigning MVP, especially after posting eerily similar numbers to begin his career?
Here are some Packers vs Bengals Prop Bets to consider for Week 5. Please note that all Packers vs Bengals odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 8 at 1 PM EST.
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Packers vs Bengals Player Prop Bets
Aaron Rodgers Over 263.5 Passing Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
This is a bet on the Bengals staying in the game. While things got ugly early on Week 4’s edition of Thursday Night Football, Cincinnati showed some true mettle in a comeback win.
What lead to them playing from behind was their run defense putting up an uncharacteristic performance, allowing Jacksonville to rush for 139 yards. Perhaps the dual-threat ability of Trevor Lawrence kept them off balance, but that hasn’t been the typical case for their run-stopping performance this year.
Nose tackle DJ Reader headlines a front seven that started the year by holding Dalvin Cook to 3.1 yards per carry, David Montgomery to 3.1, and Najee Harris to 2.9. Even after last week’s letdown performance, the Bengals remain top 10 in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed to their opponent per game.
Even if Aaron Jones is one of the best running backs in the league, I’d expect him to run into trouble against a Bengals front seven that looks to be at full strength. Defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi is the only injury concern for that unit after tweaking his knee in Week 4, but he registered a limited practice on Wednesday.
Nathaniel Hackett surely is aware of these numbers heading into Paul Brown Stadium. I’d expect him to put the ball in the reigning NFL MVP’s hands to attack the weaker portion of the Bengals’ defense. I’d be comfortable tacking on another 10-12 yards to this prop and betting the Over for Rodgers passing yards up to 275.
Joe Burrow Over 23.5 Completions (-125) at DraftKings
Wager: 1.5 Units
This will be the biggest test of the year to date for the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner. His performance has been remarkable in 2021 when taking into account the gruesome knee injury that he suffered less than a year ago.
I mentioned before how Burrow and Rodgers have very similar numbers to start their careers. Through 14 career games-
- Rodgers completed 63.5% of passes, Burrow 66.9%
- Rodgers threw for 3,470 yards, Burrow 3,676
- Rodgers threw for 23 TDs and 12 interceptions, Burrow has thrown 22 TDs to 9 picks
- Rodgers had a passer rating of 91.8, Burrow 94.8
Things are looking up for the kid from LSU after a long offseason of rehab and bad training camp press.
It hasn’t been all perfect- Week 2 featured a stretch where Burrow threw three picks on three consecutive attempts. Despite this and other mistakes he has gotten away with, Burrow is third in the NFL in completion percentage through four weeks of play.
I would bet this prop as soon as possible due to impending injury news for the Bengals. WR Tee Higgins registered a limited practice on Wednesday, while star RB Joe Mixon did not. If both players keep trending on their current injury paths, Cincinnati will have all the more reason to throw in a game where they could be playing from behind.
Tyler Boyd Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Wager: 1.25 Units
Tyler Boyd took a step forward in 2018 as a 24-year-old slot receiver and has continued to produce ever since. He very likely would have eclipsed the 1,000 receiving yard mark for the third consecutive season in 2020 had Burrow been healthy.
While Ja’Marr Chase may already be the new WR1 for the Bengals, Boyd certainly won’t be forgotten by Burrow as an elite safety blanket receiver. With Higgins out in Week 4, Boyd put up 9 catches for 118 yards on 11 targets.
I’d expect the Bengals to be needing to throw a lot to keep up with the Packers. Even if Higgins returns, all three of the talented Bengals starting WRs will have ample opportunity to put up yards and keep the chains moving.
Green Bay has yet to face a passing attack this powerful in 2021. I, nor anyone else, can explain what exactly happened in their Week 1 38-3 loss to New Orleans. What is known is that Cincinnati is much harder to stop than the Saints, Lions, 49ers, and Steelers.
Chalk up Green Bay being top 10 in the NFL in fewest passing yards allowed per game to their easy first four matchups. Boyd’s low Over number is the most appealing to take a bet on.
Davante Adams Longest Reception Under 26.5 Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
The Cincinnati Bengals are not strong at cornerback. Davante Adams should have no issues dominating whoever lines up against him, as he usually does. What makes the Under on his long reception number is the return of safety Jesse Bates.
Bates has proven himself to be one of the premier ball hawks in the league, earning himself an exceptional 90.1 overall grade on Pro Football Focus in 2020. Bates was ruled out last week with a neck injury, but looks good to go for this weekend after completing a full practice on Wednesday.
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has one less threat to worry about with Marquez Valdes-Scantling being placed on injured reserve. Expect Jesse Bates to follow Davante Adams to whatever side of the field he is on. With two games with a reception over 26.5 yards and two games under that mark this season, this is a spot where I like the under.
- Read our full NFL Week 5 Packers vs Bengals Predictions & Best Bets.
Packers vs Bengals Week 5 Prop Bets
No Team Scores 3 Unanswered Times (+200) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Green Bay likely wins as the road favorites in Cincinnati, but this game should remain competitive throughout. A blowout in this game would be surprising, despite the history of disappointment the Cincinnati Bengals are well known for.
Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air while their run games may falter. One thing I love in this game is that each side features two solid kickers. If Rodgers and Burrow don’t satisfy your “aging legend vs. developing star" narrative, how about the kicking matchup between Mason Crosby and Evan McPherson.
Crosby remains solid, following up his perfect conversion percentage on field goals in 2020 with a 6/6 mark this year. It’s not easy to hold a job for 14 years in any field, but Crosby is always a reliable option to finish a drive with points.
Evan McPherson was the sole kicker selected in the 2021 NFL Draft, going to the Bengals in the 5th round. After a perfect preseason performance featuring a 56-yard field goal that would’ve been the longest regular-season make in Paul Brown Stadium’s history, McPherson has gone 5/6 to start his career. A very narrow miss from 43 yards is the only blemish on McPherson’s record so far that otherwise features two 53-yarders and two game-winning field goals.
If the Bengals can at least get the ball to the other side of the 50-yard line, they’ve got a solid chance to keep up with the Packers and keep them from scoring 3 times unanswered.
Green Bay Packers to Win by 1-6 Points (+270) at DraftKings
Wager: 0.75 Units
With both teams looking good early in the season, I wouldn’t expect either side to wave the white flag in this game. Green Bay is currently the 3 point favorite.
While that line is forgiving to a Bengals team whose future win total was at 6.5 on most books prior to the season starting, I think Cincinnati can keep the game within a touchdown.
These two teams have the second-lowest combined plays per game total of all Week 5 matchups. With a slower game and modest 50.5 projected point total, a 1-6 point Packers win is the most likely outcome of this game.
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