In what is another SEC battle in a Week 6 slate featuring multiple other SEC matchups, Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral will look to improve his draft stock in a floundering quarterback class.
Last week against Alabama, Corral simply could not keep up or match the Crimson Tide.
Arkansas, on the other hand, lost 37-0 to Georgia’s backup quarterback Stenson Bennett.
Arkansas will be on the road in this contest as it looks to test its solid defense against an Ole Miss offensive line that could be had and create some pressure on Corral.
So, how do we compare two teams coming off of brutal losses to opponents that are atop the SEC?
This is a prime opportunity to cash in.
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Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Prediction
Heading into this game, the focal point is going to be Corral, who leads the team in rushing touchdowns with six and has yet to throw an interception.
The Ole Miss offense is tied for 22nd in the nation in total points, whereas Arkansas is tied for 34th in the nation in points allowed, allowing 19 points per game, which includes their 37-0 loss to Georgia.
There’s no doubt that the Ole Miss offense is head and shoulders better than Arkansas, though the lead component of the Arkansas offense is the rushing attack, with 61 percent of their offensive plays coming on the ground.
However, this game could get interesting due to the defenses of each squad. Neither team has an elite defense, but Arkansas shines most in pass rush, led by EDGE Tre Williams.
Corral has an affinity for play-action concepts and slinging the ball with those intermediate and deeper passes. However, when faced with pressure, that is where Corral struggles the most, with a 48.5 percent completion percentage. Corral has also been under pressure on 33.6 percent of his dropbacks.
If the Razorbacks can apply some pressure and run a safer, run-focused offense, this game could get interesting down the stretch.
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Prediction: Ole Miss 33, Arkansas 28
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss Best Bets
Best Bet: Ole Miss Moneyline (-220) at WynnBET
The Razorbacks would need a few things to go right for them to pull off the upset. While it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility, Corral is mobile, and if the Rebels jump out to a lead and can establish the play-action attack successfully, that’s the bread and butter for Corral and Ole Miss.
Arkansas should be able to keep it close with their solid defense, but Corral will bring home the “W” at home coming off of a loss to Alabama.
Best Bet: Arkansas +6 (-110) at Caesars
Although the Rebels will more than likely win this game, the strategy going into this game will be to pressure Corral, establish the run-focused offense, and limit Corral’s big plays down the middle of the field.
With Arkansas having a run-focused offense, this will also help drain the clock in a way that should also help keep the game close.
Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson is competent at airing the ball out when needed but is also a candidate to break off those long runs to keep Arkansas in this game.
Best Bet: Under 66.5 (-110) at Caesars
Overall, betting the over/under here is somewhat of a toss-up. On one hand, the rushing attack of Arkansas could wear the clock down. On the other hand, if Corral and Ole Miss start racking up points through the air, Arkansas will need to match it.
I’ll tend to side with the former, but it will be razor-thin. If Arkansas can sustain some longer drives while also forcing some shortened drives here and there against Ole Miss via the pass rush, it’s going to leave gaps of time with minimal scoring.
Arkansas also typically runs almost 20 offensive plays less than Ole Miss, with 68.8 on average compared to the Rebels’ 84.8.