We kept it rolling in Week 2, as the Denver Broncos covered the 6-points, and we won our same game parlay, as the Under 45 points also cashed. We’re hot right now, but let’s keep it going in Week 3! This week, we’re going to talk about the game between the New Orleans Saints and New England Patriots.
The Saints followed up their impressive blowout win against the Green Bay Packers with a disappointing loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Patriots took care of business by dismantling the New York Jets after a costly home loss against the division rival Miami Dolphins in Week 1.
Let’s find out which side you should bet on in this inter-conference clash between two playoff contenders.
Best Bet: Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings
For in-depth analysis of this NFL bet of the day, continue reading. Please note that all odds are current as of Friday, September 24.
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New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Prediction
Both of these offenses have looked underwhelming so far. While the Saints did score 38 points against the Packers, that was aided by two turnovers.
This offense struggled last week against the Panthers, with quarterback Jameis Winston averaging only 5.05 yards per attempt. New Orleans currently ranks 18th in pass DVOA and 29th in run DVOA.
The Patriots have found some success with rookie quarterback Mac Jones as the game manager, leaning on their running game with Damien Harris and James White. However, this is a ball-control offense with limited explosiveness. New England is 22nd in pass DVOA and 11th in run DVOA.
Both of these defenses have been rock solid so far. The Saints have limited opposing running backs to 2.7 yards per carry, which could make it difficult for the Patriots’ run-heavy offense. New Orleans is 3rd in run DVOA but 12th in pass DVOA, making them more vulnerable to the passing game.
The Patriots picked off rookie Zach Wilson four times last week. They rank 2nd in pass DVOA but can be beaten on the ground, placing 23rd in run DVOA.
The issue for the Patriots is that the Saints have one star on offense in Alvin Kamara. We all know how head coach Bill Belichick thrives at limiting his opponent’s best player.
This profiles as a gritty, defensive game with points at a premium. That makes it difficult to lay points with the favorite here, as it could be tough for Mac Jones to do much against this imposing Saints defense. This game should come down right to the wire, so I’ll take New Orleans plus the points here.
Prediction: New Orleans Saints 21, New England Patriots 17
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Best Bets
Best Bet: Saints +3 (-115) at DraftKings
The Saints are in a good bounce-back spot following a let-down game against the Panthers. They have the better quarterback and defense here. I’d rather have the underdog in a low-scoring game like this one.
It could be tough for the Patriots to establish their running game against this Saints stout rush defense. This might force Mac Jones to air it out, which could lead to some turnovers here. Take the Saints plus the points.
Best Bet: Under 42 (-110) at BetMGM
Saints games have combined for 41 and 33 points this season, while Patriots games have gone for 33 and 31 points. The Saints rank 26th in pace in neutral game scripts (score is within seven points), and the Patriots are 24th.
These are two slow-paced teams that rely on their defense and running game. While 42 points is a super low bar to clear in today’s NFL, it wouldn’t surprise me to see this game combine for fewer than 35 points. I’d play it safe with the under here.
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Same Game Parlay Pick
Saints +2.5 & Under 42.5 Total Points (+260) at BetMGM
The Saints and the under look like the right side because points should be hard to come by, making it more appealing to take the underdog plus the points. The slow-paced nature of this game should lead to longer drives that eat up more clock.
The only way that I see this game going over is if Jameis Winston reverts to his turnover-prone ways or Mac Jones does the same while forced to air it out against this defense.
Both of these teams are similarly matched, but I’d give a slight edge to the Saints because they have the better quarterback (Winston) and high-end talent (Kamara).