It’s been a wacky first two weeks of the NFL season. Everything we learned in Week 1 was basically the opposite in Week 2. However, at the end of the day, as long as you survive your pool, that’s all that matters.
In Week 1, we took the Panthers over the Jets and in Week 2 we selected the Buccaneers over the Falcons. We’re surviving. In large pools, at this time, 15-20% of participants are likely out of your pool.
Last week, it was the Pittsburgh Steelers that stunned many participants. Still, the top three selections between the Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all went on to win Week 2.
Continue on to find out which team is this week’s pick for the pool!
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid — Week 3
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck, uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. Lines are current as of Tuesday, September 21.
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2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 3
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos
In my first two picks of the survivor pool, I’ve made sure that both of my teams were at home. After watching the pandemic season last year, it became clear that fans truly make a difference in games. Having them back is crucial.
I’ll continue the same theme for Week 3 and select the Denver Broncos to beat the New York Jets. The Broncos have been incredible to start the season, and while they’ve only beat two bottom tier teams, they’re about to get another in the Jets.
Teddy Bridgewater took over as the starting quarterback for the Broncos this season, and he’s played wonderfully. He’s thrown for 4 touchdowns along with no interceptions through two games.
However, the Broncos don’t have just one playmaker. They’ve got a bunch of guys performing well, between Melvin Gordon III, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy, and KJ Hamler.
There’s just so much talent on this offense, and Denver finally has a quarterback that has learned how to utilize it.
Meanwhile, the Jets’ defense has been awful this season. They can’t stop the run, they’re banged up in the secondary and have missed plenty of tackles.
On offense, rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has thrown 5 interceptions in two games and the offensive line has struggled without their big left tackle in Mekhi Becton.
The prediction tracker has the Broncos winning this game 73.27% of the time, making them the third-most likely team to win on Saturday — something that’s reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
I’ve been surprised by the Broncos to start the season. Let’s eat off them while we can, especially with Denver at home against a young Jets team.
You can bet the Broncos against a 10.5-point spread at Caesars at (-110) if you’re looking to bet on this game.
Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Cardinals have started the season 2-0 thanks to a Minnesota missed field goal as time expired. The offense looks ridiculous behind Kyler Murray, but the defense has looked questionable since shutting down the Titans in Week 1.
The Cardinals are averaging 36 points per game, and that should be enough to win any game against the Jaguars this season. However, the defense has allowed 362.5 yards per game and has struggled to stop the run so far this season.
Granted, the Cardinals had to go up against Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook to start the year. Either way, tackling has been an issue as well as the run game, and while the pass rush has been effective, it can’t be nearly as strong with a secondary that has played average football in the first two weeks of the season.
However, all of these concerns are a little overblown knowing the Cardinals will face the Jaguars. Arizona will be on the road, but they’ll get to face a defense that has allowed 30 points and 437.5 yards per game.
Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled under center for the Jags early, with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. The pass protection has been pitiful for Lawrence, which is something he’s truly not used to.
Even with the Cardinals struggling on defense, they should be just fine against the Jags.
Trevor Lawrence’s Jacksonville Jaguars have been far from impressive this season, a trend that both the rookie quarterback and coach Urban Meyer aren’t too familiar with.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
New Orleans Saints vs New England Patriots
It looks like the overreaction is real. The Saints dominated the Packers on opening day, then struggled to do much of anything in Week 2 against the Panthers in a lopsided 26-7 loss.
Through two games, the Saints have been able to run the ball well, averaging nearly 110 yards per game on the ground. The pass protection and run blocking needs to be better, but for now, they’re doing what they can.
Jameis Winston doesn’t have Michael Thomas available right now, but he’s working with a variety of different receivers to make things happen. The Saints were at an all-time high to start the season and fell to an all-time low last week.
They’re somewhere in the middle of those two performances. A Saints “middle" is enough to beat the Patriots.
The Patriots struggled to do much of anything against the Dolphins Week 1, taking a one-point loss on opening day. They then followed that performance up with a loud win against the Jets.
Still, the Patriots have not looked good against the run and aren’t tackling at a solid level right now. When Saints running back Alvin Kamara gets in space, things could get ugly for the Patriots.
The Prediction Tracker has the Saints winning this game 53.36% of the time, and they’re now 3-point underdogs. The Saints are the better team, despite their effort last week.
If you’re thinking about making this your NFL bet of the day, the Saints are currently (+130) at Caesars to defeat the Patriots.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Washington Football Team vs Buffalo Bills
The Washington Football Team showed some fight against the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. While the defense was ugly, the offense did some solid things behind Taylor Heinicke.
I honestly don’t know what to think about the guy. He’s thrown for 458 yards along with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception this season, and he led his team on a game-winning drive to beat the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. It was impressive.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are home and will welcome Washington to Highmark Stadium. The Bills and their mafia should be able to pull out a win.
However, Buffalo hasn’t looked all that amazing through two weeks of the season. The offensive line has been struggling, and the defense continues to struggle against the run.
The Bills get the Texans, Jaguars and Jets a little later in the season. Hold off on the Bills and wait for them to get back to their normal brand of football.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
The Dolphins are currently 4-point underdogs against a 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders team. We’re only two weeks through the season, but the Raiders offense looks unstoppable, averaging 475.5 yards and nearly 30 points per game.
The defense has been a bit shaky, allowing 379 total yards per game. The Raiders have struggled against the run, and their pass coverage could be improved.
Las Vegas has surprised with a solid pass rush, but that’s about all they’ve gotten going on the defensive side of the ball right now.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, will be without their starting quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa after he suffered a rib injury in Week 2. The Dolphins are expected to use Jacoby Brissett in his place, and although he’s not the best option out there, he’s got legitimate experience as a starting quarterback.
With a full week of preparation, he should be able to help put some points on the board, unlike last week. The Prediction Tracker gives the Dolphins a 42.24% chance of winning their game against the Raiders at this time.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 3 Survivor Pool Picks! Before making your picks, also be sure to check out our NFL Week 3 Power Rankings.
