In an SEC Top 25 conference matchup, 11th ranked Florida is hosting 1st ranked Alabama. Alabama is the favorite to win the National Championship and the favorite to win the SEC.
As a perennial powerhouse, Alabama unsurprisingly is a 14.5-point favorite on the road against Florida. In their season opener against a ranked Miami (FL) team, Bama won 44-13. That is why the Crimson Tide are heavy favorites again, even against a ranked Florida team.
Going into the season, Alabama was set as a 13.5 point favorite against Florida. Even after their strong debut against Miami, the needle has barely moved on Alabama’s spread.
Florida currently is a +2200 underdog to win the SEC and a +450 underdog to win the SEC East division. If the Gators can beat Alabama, they will be vaulted to slim underdogs to win the SEC East against Georgia.
The question for Saturday’s game is if Bama can run the table against a strong Florida team?
Below, I go over how I think the game will go and my favorite bets.
Alabama vs. Florida Best Bet: Over 59.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
For in-depth analysis of this CFB bet of the day and others, continue reading.
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Alabama vs. Florida Prediction
Even though Alabama is the defending National Champion, they went into this season with some skepticism. They lost several key players from their 2020 National Championship team to the NFL. In fact, six of their players were drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, including Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, QB Mac Jones, CB Patrick Surtain, and RB Najee Harris.
Despite significant losses to the NFL, Alabama continues to be Alabama. They easily covered as heavy favorites against Miami, and they are looking to do the same against Florida.
Instead of Mac Jones this year, the Crimson Tide has leading Heisman candidate Bryce Young. Instead of DeVonta Smith as their leading receiver, they have John Metchie III.
With Bama being the best school, they will always get the best recruits. That is why, unlike most schools, it should not be worrying when there is turnover at Alabama.
Florida is a strong team, but they have the misfortune of playing in the SEC. To win the SEC, they must win their division, the SEC East, and then beat the winner of the SEC West. In the SEC East, they are blocked out by perennial contender Georgia.
If Florida makes it past Georgia, then chances are they will lose to either Alabama, Texas A&M, or Auburn out of the SEC West in the conference championship game.
This year, the Gators have a strong running game that will face a stiff test against Alabama. Additionally, Florida is vulnerable at quarterback with Emory Jones, as Jones has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns.
Despite Florida having a competitive roster, they are clearly outmatched by the Crimson Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 45, Florida 27
Alabama vs. Florida Best Bets
Best Bet: Over 59.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
My favorite bet for Saturday’s game is on over 59.5 Points to be scored between both Alabama and Florida’s offenses. Alabama is back to having one of the best offenses in the country, and even against strong SEC defenses, they should continue to produce.
Florida should be able to put points on the scoreboard once Alabama gets to a comfortable lead. At only 59.5 points, the over is worth a bet unless the total moves past 62.5 points.
Best Bet: Alabama 1st Half -8.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I like Alabama to cover against Florida as 14.5 point favorites, but I am a little hesitant to make that bet. Of all the NCAAF conferences, the SEC is the only one where I have a losing record in my NCAAF betting career. The market is efficient, and I need to respect it more.
Instead of backing Bama’s full-game spread, I like them to cover as 8.5 point favorites in the first half. I suspect that Alabama Head Coach Nick Saban will want to move up the score in the first half and then run down the clock in the second half. That is why I like the Crimson Tide more in the first half than in the second half.
I would bet half a unit on the under up to 49.5 at -110 odds.