Super Bowl 55 Bet Tips: Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks, NFL Championship Odds
Here’s our complete guide to Super Bowl 55 Bet Tips, Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks, and Super Bowl 55 Predictions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Super Bowl 55 at the Buccaneers’ Raymond James Stadium at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Feb. 7.
Odds and lines used for Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks are from PointsBet, current as of Thursday at 11 a.m.
Super Bowl 55 Bet Tips, Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks, and Super Bowl 55 Predictions provided by Anthony Cervino and Pauly Parlays.
Super Bowl 55 Bet Tips: Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks
Odds & Betting Lines for Super Bowl 55: Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks
- Against the Spread: Chiefs -3 (-110) / Buccaneers +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-180) / Buccaneers (+150)
- Over/Under Total: 56 — Over 56 (-115) / Under 56 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 29.5, Buccaneers 26.5
Super Bowl 55 Bet Tips: Key Injuries for Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks
Kansas City Chiefs
KC LT Eric Fisher tore his Achilles during the second half of the Chiefs’ 38-24 win over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game. KC was forced to juggle its offensive line after Fisher went down, shifting Mike Remmers (questionable) from right tackle to left tackle.
Right guard Andrew Wylie (questionable) moved to right tackle, and Stefen Wisniewski was slotted in at right guard. Despite the questionable tags for Remmers and Wylie, both as fully expected to play.
However, losing a two-time Pro Bowl left tackle is something that could affect both the Chiefs’ run game as well as its pass protection for the blind side of Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs’ backfield is also banged up. While Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned to the field for the AFC title game, the rookie was limited, carrying the ball six times for seven yards and a 1-yard TD in the second quarter.
With an extra week of rest for Edwards-Helaire’s injured ankle, we could see more of an even split between him and Darrel Williams for the Super Bowl. Williams has tallied exactly 13 carries in both of the Chiefs’ playoff games, averaging exactly 65 yards per game. Veteran Le’Veon Bell is also expected to be available come Feb. 7, but he likely won’t be too deep in the mix with CEH and Williams getting the bulk of the touches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are dealing with three significant injuries mixed on either side of the football. However, there may be good news on the horizon in terms of their playing status versus the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55 and tilting the scales on Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks.
On offense, WR Antonio Brown was sidelined for the NFC Championship game win over the Packers with a knee injury, but earlier in the week, ESPN reported that the sometimes troubled wideout should be good-to-go on Super Bowl Sunday. While Brown may sit out of practice this week, HC Bruce Arians hopes the wideout will be ready to step back onto the practice field next Tuesday.
Defensively, the Buccaneers are dealing with two injuries to their defensive backfield. Both FS Jordan Whitehead (shoulder) and SS Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle) are also not expected to practice this week, but similar to Brown, there is optimism that both safeties will be ready to go on the immediate Tuesday ahead of the Big Game.
While both Brown and Winfield missed the NFC Championship game, Whitehead suffered his shoulder injury in the victory. Should any of the aforementioned players miss the Super Bowl, WR Scotty Miller would be next in line if Brown sits. S Andrew Adams and S Mike Edwards would be the next men up if one or both safeties are ruled out.
Top Super Bowl 55 Matchups To Consider For Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks
Leonard Fournette vs. Chiefs Run Defense
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady is playing some of the best football of his storied career this season. However, despite throwing three late interceptions in the NFC Championship win over the Packers, Brady’s play in the postseason has been just as impressive as his regular-season accomplishments.
Albeit he’s played in three games — just as many as the anointed one, Josh Allen — Brady leads postseason quarterbacks in passing yards (860) and touchdowns (7) while ranking second in yards per attempt (7.9). He’s also only taken five sacks in that three-game period, compared to Allen, who has taken eight sacks in as many opportunities.
This will be Brady’s unprecedented — by far — 10th Super Bowl and holds a 6-3 record. In those nine games, the GOAT has completed 256-of-392 passes (65.3%) for 2,838 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions while holding a 95.6 passer rating. Brady has been sacked 18 times in those nine appearances.
Keep in mind that the last time Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lost a playoff game, was to Brady and the Patriots back on January 20, 2019, in the 2018-2019 AFC Championship.
A record four-time Super Bowl MVP, Brady can’t do it alone. While I don’t have to say much about his ridiculously deep slew of pass-catching weapons, I should comment on RB Leanard Fournette and RB Ronald Jones.
While Fournette and Jones are unfairly the butts of jokes amongst the fantasy football landscape when it comes to their role in getting Tampa Bay to the Super Bowl, their numbers speak for themselves, most notably, the former.
For Jones, he’s been dealing with a knee contusion which not only forced him to sit out the Wild Card win over the Washington Football Team, but the injury also forwarded Fournette with the opportunity to showcase exactly why he was the fourth overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
While Jones has only rushed for 78 total yards on 23 carries in two postseason appearances, he did manage 103 total yards (37 receiving) and a touchdown on 10 touches (1 reception) back in Week 12’s loss to the Chiefs.
In three playoff games this season as Tampa Bay’s primary back, Fournette has totaled 74+ yards with a touchdown. In two of those contests, Fournette totaled 107+ yards with a score. Fournette touched the ball 17+ times in those three postseason outings, two of which, garnering 22+. He’s also been an exceptional receiver. Despite a handful of drops, Fournette has accumulated 4+ targets and 4+ targets in all three playoff games while seeing 6+ targets and five receptions in each of his past two.
Fournette is hot, which bodes well for his matchup against the Chiefs. While the Kansas City defense has been terrific at times this season, you can run against them. The Chiefs have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards per game (122.1) during regular season play. In the postseason, they aren’t much better, yielding the seventh-most rushing yards per game (120.5) in two outings.
It’s not all on Brady and the Buccaneers’ offense, however. The Tampa Bay defense must find a way to slow down Kansas City’s explosive offense. Despite only surrendering 27 points in their 27-24 loss to the Chiefs back in Week 12, the Tampa Bay defense allowed 543 total yards while also forcing two turnovers and sacking Mahomes three times. They’ll need to find a way to minimize Kansas City’s yardage totals and reduce their scoring opportunities to win.
While they are yielding 350 total yards and 23 points per game this postseason, the Buccaneers’ defense has recorded seven sacks and five interceptions — both playoff-bests in the league — along with three forced fumbles. If Tampa’s fierce front seven led by Lavonte David, Pro Football Focus‘ fifth-best linebacker, can pressure Mahomes, they should be able to get another turnover or two, which could be the difference in the game. — Anthony Cervino
Chiefs Receiving Corps vs. Buccaneers Secondary
When these two teams met back in Week 12, Tyreek Hill had arguably the best game of his career. Catching 13 balls for 269 yards and three touchdowns, Hill accounted for more than half of Mahomes’ 462 passing yards on the afternoon. Travis Kelce was his usual self, tallying eight receptions for 82 yards. Whether or not the Buccaneers’ secondary can slow down the Chiefs’ top two targets, can and will be the difference in this contest.
The Bucs allowed a whopping 16 catches for 266 yards and two TDs to the Packers’ top three receivers in the NFC Championship, and 14 grabs for 161 yards and another two TDs for the Saints’ three leading receivers in the Divisional Round. With the Chiefs’ offense leading the league in pass yards per game (303.4), this matchup should be on display throughout Super Bowl 55. — Pauly Parlays
Super Bowl 55 Predictions: Chiefs-Buccaneers Picks
Betting on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV
ANTHONY CERVINO’s Super Bowl 55 Predictions
BEST BET: Buccaneers (+150)
Bucs To Win SB55(+150)
KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM
Before I break down my Best Bet, let’s take a look at how the Buccaneers and Chiefs match up comparing their regular season finishes in the most significant team categories.
- Points scored: Buccaneers 3rd-most (30.8), Chiefs 6th-most (29.6)
- Points allowed: Buccaneers 8th-fewest (22.2), Chiefs 10th-fewest (23.1)
- Total yards: Buccaneers 7th-most (384.1), Chiefs No. 1 (415.8)
- Total yards allowed: Buccaneers 6th-fewest (327.1), Chiefs 16th-most (358.3)
- Passing yards: Buccaneers 2nd-most (289.1), Chiefs No. 1 (303.4)
- Passing yards allowed: Buccaneers 12th-most (246.6), Chiefs 14th-fewest (236.2)
- Rushing yards: Buccaneers 5th-fewest (94.9), Chiefs 16th-most (112.4)
- Rushing yards allowed: Buccaneers No. 1 (80.6), Chiefs 12th-most (122.1)
While these two teams match-up well in points scored and points surrendered as well as in total yards and passing yards, the Buccaneers have the edge defensively, at least in yardage production yielded. When it comes to rushing, however, I will give a huge nod to Tampa Bay.
Not only do they employ the best-run defense in the NFL, but the Chiefs aren’t exactly known for running the football. They can get the job done, but they may not be too effective against the Buccaneers. In fact, back in Week 12, Le’Veon Bell and Clyde Edwards-Helaire only combined for 59 yards on 16 carries.
While Darrel Williams is the hot hand for the Chiefs right now, he did not handle a single touch in that regular-season meeting. Williams has managed 14+ touches for 61+ total yards in each of Kansas City’s two playoff games this season, finding the end zone only once, which was in the AFC Title game.
Meanwhile, while the Buccaneers were one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL this season, they have the players who can get the job done if need be in the form of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. I highlighted what Fournette and Jones did against the Chiefs back in Week 12 as well as their postseason numbers in the Players to Watch section of this article.
Breaking it down even further, here are two more categories that will impact this game. To me, sacks and turnover differential can shift the momentum in any matchup.
- Sacks: Buccaneers 4th-most (48), Chiefs 15th-most (32)
- Sacks allowed: Buccaneers 3rd-fewest (22), Chiefs 4th-fewest (24)
- Turnover Differential: Buccaneers 4th (+8), Chiefs 6th (+6)
As you can see, both the Buccaneers and Chiefs are skin-tight in the turnover differential and sacks allowed categories. However, when it comes to getting home and sacking the quarterback, the Buccaneers are a league above the Chiefs.
Ok, here it is. In the preseason, I had picked the Buccaneers and Chiefs to face-off in the Super Bowl. While I didn’t go out on a limb choosing Kansas City, the Tampa Bay pick was a stretch. However, the reason why I picked Tampa was Tom Brady.
Even at his age, Brady is doing foolish things in the NFL. While many believed Brady was done following his final stint with the Patriots, nobody considered how poor his offensive pieces actually were. That, was until we saw Cam Newton struggle mightily with nearly the same pieces, and the GOAT still got that team to the playoffs in 2019.
Through a rocky regular season, I did not jump ship. I bought into Brady and the Buccaneers despite it all. I did so through the playoffs against a fierce Football Team front seven and defense as a whole. I picked them to win over the Saints, who beat the Buccaneers twice in the regular season, including an embarrassing defeat in their second outing. And I picked them to win last week in Green Bay. Guess what? I am doing it again on Super Bowl Sunday.
Forget the spread, my Best Bet is the Buccaneers winning outright. After all, Brady is 6-3 in nine Super Bowl starts.
While the Chiefs have not lost since Week 5 against the Raiders — I am not counting their loss to the Chargers in the regular-season finale in which the Kansas City rested most key starters — the Buccaneers have been white-hot since coming out of their Week 13 bye.
Including the playoffs, the Buccaneers have won seven straight games by at least five points with a handful of double-digit wins mixed in there as well. In those seven victories, Brady has a 19:4 TD/INT ratio with three of those picks coming in the NFC title game against Green Bay. To keep things fair, Mahomes has a 15:4 TD/INT ratio in his past seven as well.
As I eluded to earlier, the difference in this game will be sacks and turnovers. While the Buccaneers had more sacks and turnovers in Week 12’s loss, the Chiefs barely squeaked by with a three-point victory. Back in Week 12, the Buccaneers were at the tail-end of their midseason downward spiral.
After starting the season 6-2, the Buccaneers would lose three of their next four games going into that key Week 13 bye. As I said before, you can make the case that the Buccaneers have been the best team in football coming out of their week off. The Chiefs are getting a different Tampa Bay team in Super Bowl 55 than they had almost 10 weeks ago.
As long as Tampa Bay can run the ball, their offense should be firing on all cylinders while keeping Mahomes and company on the sidelines. Yes, it is an overused narrative, but it is a narrative that holds true at a high rate.
Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 28
CONSIDER: Buccaneers +3 (+110)
KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM
If you want to protect yourself in case the Chiefs ultimately win by fewer than three points, you can take Tampa Bay getting the three points at terrific (+110) odds.
- The Chiefs are 2-8 against the spread in their past 10 games, covering in the AFC Championship.
- Outside of that 14-point victory over the Bills in the AFC title game, the Chiefs’ largest margin of victory in their past nine wins was six points. They won four of those games by fewer than three points.
- The Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games, 4-1 in their past five while covering in each of their past two contests.
The Buccaneers and Chiefs have played each other four times since 2008. The Buccaneers are 3-1 in those meetings, losing back in Week 12 of this past regular season.
- The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS in their past four meetings with the Chiefs, covering in three straight.
A few betting trends to chew on:
- The Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games on grass.
- The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their past four games as an underdog.
- The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these two clubs.
- Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS in nine Super Bowl outings.
- The Favorite is 27-25-2 in Super Bowl history, covering in two straight.
- The AFC is 5-1 ATS in the1 past five Super Bowls.
CONSIDER: Over 56 (-115)
KC-TB Over 56(-115)
KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM
During the regular season when the Buccaneers and Chiefs played back in Week 12, the total was also set at 56 points but the final score was 27-24, which means the game went Under and totaled 51. Despite the fact that the past two Super Bowls went Under, I do believe this game will meet the Over when it is all said and done. Both of these offenses can score at will.
In the AFC and NFC Championship games, the games totaled 62 and 57 points respectively. Those matchups featured Buffalo and Kansas City and Green Bay and Tampa Bay. All high-scoring offenses like we will get on Super Bowl Sunday.
With both teams expected to be at full strength on offense — Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are expected to play for the Chiefs while Antonio Brown is expected to play for the Buccaneers — these clubs are not short on playmakers.
While Tampa Bay does employ the better defense, we have seen their secondary get lit up a lot this season. On the Kansas City end, their defense is bend but not break. They will give up ample yards but are stingy in the points category. Tom Brady will not leave points on the table, however.
- The Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers’ past four games played on grass
- The Over is 6-4 in the Chiefs’ past 10 games, 2-1 in their past three, hitting in the AFC title game.
- The Over is 6-4 in the Buccaneers’ past 10 games, 3-1 in their past four, hitting in the NFC title game.
- The Over is 2-2 in the past four games between these two teams, going Under in each of their past two, including back in Week 12.
- The Over is 26-26-1 in Super Bowl history
- There was no Total in Super Bowl 1
- The Over is 10-10 in the past 20 Super Bowls, going Under in each of the past two.
Anthony Cervino is 73-56-4 on his NFL Best Bets this season.
Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LV
PAULY PARLAYS’ Super Bowl 55 Predictions
BEST BET: Chiefs (-180)
Chiefs To Win SB55(-180)
KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM
I like the Chiefs win their second straight Super Bowl, in a game that plays out similar to the Week 12 matchup between these two teams. KC got out to a 17-0 lead in that contest and were up 27-10 at the end of the third quarter, before Brady and Co. scored two fourth-quarter touchdowns. Simply looking at the final score, the game looked a lot closer than it actually was. The Chiefs completely dominated until they started playing prevent defense and allowed the Bucs to seemingly get back in the game. But, truth is, the outcome was never in doubt.
That being said, there are two ways to think about why Chiefs moneyline is my best bet. While I’m confident enough to risk almost 2-to-1 odds, I’m not confident enough to take them minus the 3-point spread. My reasoning is simple. I expect this game to end with a 3-point scoring difference, and potentially playing a best bet for a tie is no fun.
My final score prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24
CONSIDER: Under 56 (-105)
Chiefs-Bucs Under 56(-105)
KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM
And that leads right into my first Chiefs-Buccaneers pick to consider — the under 56. If I expect a 27-24 final score, that’s 51 points, but we could fall way short of this total.
With the last two Super Bowl-winning QBs facing off in this one, it’s important to remember how each of those contests played out. Mahomes and the Chiefs won 31-20 last year, and Brady and New England Patriots won 13-3 the year prior, in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl of all time. Even though we have the GOAT taking on the potential future GOAT, it’s the defensive side of the ball that often shines the brightest on Super Bowl Sunday.
I’m taking the under in a one-score win by the Chiefs.
CONSIDER: Chiefs -2.5 / Buccaneers +3.5
Last but certainly not least, a play that will get you slightly better odds (than Chiefs moneyline) and avoids a potential push (if you like Bucs +3).
I am all for buying half a point when the spread sits on a key number like 3. And if you’ve been reading my content throughout the NFL season, you’ll know I do this a lot when I’m actually placing bets on games. I’d rather pay a small premium to potentially avoid rooting for a bet, only to end up in a tie.
That’s all I’m considering here.
If you like the Chiefs, like myself, then buying it down to 2.5 points puts you in a position to win a 3-point game while risking slightly less on your initial bet. Same goes for buying it up to Bucs +3.5. You’ll have to risk a few more dollars up front, with the chance to win a wager if Tampa ends up losing by a field goal.
However you decide to play it, we should have a great game on our hands with two of the best to ever play the quarterback position on display throughout Super Bowl 55.
Pauly Parlays is 45-32-4 on his NFL Best Bets this season.
Super Bowl 55 Bet Tips
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