Marcus Stroman 2021 Outlook: MLB Betting, Fantasy Baseball Tips

Marcus Stroman 2021 Outlook: MLB Betting, Fantasy Baseball Tips Marcus Stroman accepted the Mets’ one-year, $18.9 million qualifying offer back in November instead of testing an uncertain free-agent market after opting out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns.

Marcus Stroman 2021 Outlook

Stroman provides New York’s rotation a workhorse, ground-ball inducing starter. The veteran righty’s more valuable to the Mets than fantasy squads. He adds to the appeal of betting on some of the Mets’ futures lines. The 29-year-old righty is also a solid-if-unspectacular fantasy arm.

Mets MLB Futures Betting Odds

BetMGM lists the Mets as +175 to win the National League East, +600 to win the National League, and +1200 to win the World Series. Stroman is an integral piece of a deep rotation fronted by ace Jacob deGrom.

A returning Noah Syndergaard and off-season acquisition Carlos Carrasco offer high-end upside to the mix, too. The pitching staff has a legitimate shot to close the gap with New York’s top-shelf offense.

The Mets ranked second in wRC+ (122) last year, per FanGraphs. Robinson Cano posted a 141 wRC+ last year and will be a notable absence this year due to a full-season PED suspension. Additions of catcher James McCann and, more importantly, Francisco Lindor should more than offset the loss, though.

The bullpen also should be an asset to the club’s World Series aspirations and receives a boost from the signing of talented setup man Trevor May.

The Mets are a hair behind the Braves (+125) in betting odds to win the National League East.

I’m not crazy about their line to win the division, despite my belief they should be the favorite.

I do, however, love their lines to win the National League and World Series.

They’re a well-rounded club with a talented offense, a solid bullpen that could be excellent, and a deep rotation with upper-echelon talent at the front of it. The combination is one that’s easy to dream about getting hot and winning the whole shebang.

Fantasy Baseball: Stroman with Mets

Stroman ranks as SP71 with an average draft position (ADP) of 237.3, per FantasyPros. I’m more bullish on his fantasy outlook and rank him as SP54.

League settings are an important consideration for Stroman’s fantasy value. He’s struck out more than 20% of batters in just two seasons, his rookie year and 2019 campaign with a 20.8 K% and 20.5 K% in those seasons, respectively. The league average strikeout percentage for pitchers in 2019 was 23.0% and, last year, it was 23.4%, per FanGraphs.

The more restrictive the innings limit in your roto league, the less valuable Stroman is due to his below-average strikeout rate. Stroman’s mediocre strikeout rate becomes less problematic in head-to-head formats and roto leagues with no-innings or high-innings limits.

Stroman’s capable of pitching deep into games and is backed by a strong offense, enhancing his odds of helping fantasy teams in wins. He’s also capable of contributing positively in ERA, having spun a 3.09 ERA in 2017 and a 3.22 ERA in 2019.

The righty’s SIERA lagged behind both marks with a 3.85 SIERA in 2017 and 4.41 SIERA in 2019. An ERA in the 3.75 to 4.20 range this year feels about right when factoring in his advanced metrics. He’s a perfectly acceptable, ho-hum SP5/SP6 in standard 12-team mixed leagues.