Buccaneers-Packers Prop Bets & Tips for NFC Championship
Read the best Buccaneers-Packers Prop Bets for NFC Championship player props. Odds and lines for Buccaneers-Packers Prop Picks are courtesy of PointsBet, current as of Wednesday night.
Check out Buccaneers-Packers Bet Tips and Buccaneers-Packers picks in the NFC Championship Betting Guide.
Buccaneers-Packers Prop Bets for NFC Championship
Picks in this article
GB & Davante Adams
20+Pts & Adams 7+Rec(-105)
TB @ GB | 01/24, 3:05 PM
TB @ GB | 01/24, 3:05 PM
50+ Rush Yds & 1+ TD(+320)
TB @ GB | 01/24, 3:05 PM
Green Bay Packers to score 20+ and Davante Adams to get 7+ receptions (-105)
I had this combo-wager in last week’s Rams-Packers Prop article and it hit. In last week’s Divisional Round win over the Rams, it was the Packers to score 20 points and Davante Adams to get 6+ receptions at (-110) odds, this week’s odds for Championship Sunday’s matchup against the Buccaneers are slightly better at (-105).
Although the odds are better, BetMGM also bumped up Adams’ part of the two-legged parlay. Now, instead of needing 6+ catches to quality, the elite wideout needs 7+.
Either way, this is easily attainable.
In 14 regular-season games, Adams caught 6+ balls 13 times, including in 12 straight games since Week 14.
Moreover, in the past two seasons including last year’s playoffs, Adams managed 6+ receptions in 24 of his past 28 games. In each of the past two regular seasons, Adams averaged 10.6 targets per game. The opportunity will be there.
Last week against a tough Rams’ secondary, Adams caught 9-of-10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. He didn’t pop yardage-wise, but we are only worried about receptions here.
In three career games against the Buccaneers, Adams has caught fewer than 6 receptions for 61 yards without a touchdown in each outing. His best game against the Bucs in which he went for a 6/61/0 line on 10 targets came this season, back in Week 6’s 38-10 loss.
The Buccaneers have allowed the fifth-most receptions (237), the 13th-most yards (2,773), and the seventh-most touchdowns (17) to enemy wideouts in the regular season.
In two postseason games this season, the Buccaneers surrendered a 6/75/0 line to Terry McLaurin and an 8/48/0 line to Robert Woods.
Robert Tonyan anytime touchdown scorer (+150)
Although the Buccaneers managed to hold enemy tight ends to a combined 12 receptions for 107 yards in two postseason games against the Football Team and the Saints (Jared Cook, Josh Hill, Logan Thomas, Jeremy Sprinkle), they have been gashed by the position for the better part of the regular season.
The Tampa Bay defense yielded the seventh-most receptions (86), the 17th most yards (832), and the fifth-most touchdowns (9) to the position in the 2020 regular season campaign.
And while they bottled up Robert Tonyan in their Week 6 meeting, holding the breakout tight end to a 3/25/0 line on four targets, the Green Bay offense was stifled as a whole in the 38-10 loss.
If you read my Buccaneers-Packers NFC Championship Betting Preview, you will see why I believe this will be a high-scoring affair.
If this game indeed goes the way I think it will, Tonyan should play a role. Tonyan scored 11 touchdowns this season but managed to find the end zone in six of his past eight games. Tonyan failed to score last week against the Rams but hauled in all four of his targets for 60 yards.
Facing a Tampa Bay defense that has surrendered a touchdown to an opposing tight end in three of their past six games including two playoff games, the odds of Tonyan scoring are favorable. The Buccaneers’ secondary is playing better, which means Aaron Rodgers might have to find other ways to score than keying in on Davante Adams.
Tonyan is it, especially in the red zone.
Leonard Fournette to get 50+ rushing yards and 1+ TD (+320)
Leonard Fournette has been the hot hand amongst Tampa Bay running backs in the playoffs. While Ronald Jones is fully expected to play, he is still dealing with a quad contusion, which not only showed in last week’s win over the Saints despite the fact that he rushed for 62 yards on 13 carries, but the injury could also flare-up in the cold weather. This means Fournette should lead the backfield in touches once again.
Jones may have been the proverbial guy in the regular season, but in Tampa Bay’s two postseason games, Fournette has been outstanding.
Against the Football Team in the Wild Card round, Fournette went for 132 total yards and a touchdown on 23 touches (4 receptions). Jones was active but did not play a single snap because of the aforementioned quad injury.
And facing the Saints on Divisional Weekend in a game in which Jones went for 62 yards on 13 carries in his own-right, Fournette managed 107 total yards with another touchdown on 22 touches (5 receptions).
In back-to-back games, Fournette would have hit this prop. Considering the fact that Jones is ailing, Fournette should see enough carries to get going against a Packers defense that you can run on. In each of their past two games including Week 17 of the regular season, the Packers allowed two backs to go for 50+ rushing yards and a score (David Montgomery and Cam Akers).
Fournette has rushed for 50+ yards five times this season. In all of those games, he saw 11+ carries. In three of those five games, he scored a touchdown.
There was only one instance this season in which Fournette saw 11+ carries and did not rush for 50+ yards, which was back in Week 15 against the Falcons. In that game, Fournette rushed 14 times for 49 yards and a pair of scores.
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