MLB Betting Props of the Day: Best Baseball Prop Picks Today 8/6/21
Michael Rathburn is here with your MLB Betting Props of the Day for August 6. Which August 6th strikeout props make up the Best Baseball Prop Picks Today 8/6/21?
MLB Betting Props of the Day: Best Baseball Prop Picks Today
Kyle Gibson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (7:05 p.m. ET)
Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Wager: 1 unit
Kyle Gibson: Under 6.5 Strikeouts (NYM @ PHI, 8/6)
NYM @ PHI | 08/06, 7:05 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $34
The Mets and Phillies meet Friday night in what could be considered the biggest series of the year for both teams as they battle it out in the National League East. The posted odds have both teams at (-110), making it a dead even matchup.
Kyle Gibson was acquired by the Phillies from the Rangers at the trade deadline, and his recent performances have not been good. The ballpark is not the best match for Gibson, either, as Citizens is known for giving up a ton of power to left-handed batters.
The strikeout prop of 6.5 is high to me, considering Gibson has averaged 4.9 per game on the season. Gibson has only eclipsed his posted prop 20% of the time in 5 of 20 starts. Recent trends have the Mets only striking out 7.6 times per game. I think we just happen to catch a bad number here tonight and I love the under 6.5 strikeouts on Gibson.
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Corbin Burnes, SP, Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants (8:10 p.m. ET)
Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Wager: 1 unit
Corbin Burnes: Over 7.5 Strikeouts (SF @ MIL, 8/6)
Bet $20, Payout $36
Corbin Burnes and the Brewers open a huge series against the visiting San Francisco Giants and Logan Webb on Friday night. The Brewers are currently a (-150) favorite with a run total of 8. Burnes has been a pitcher that I have relied on most of the year for going over on strikeout props. While oddsmakers have certainly adjusted his props higher, he still presents value in certain spots.
I love Burnes at home, where he has a 13.7 K/9 vs. 12.0 on the road. Every slight edge you can find means something and one of the stats I rely on is the “power vs. finesse” pitcher splits. A power pitcher is what baseball reference defines as being in the top 1/3 in strikeouts and bottom 1/3 in walks allowed. I look at the difference between what a team normally does vs. when they are facing a power pitcher.
The Giants have a strikeout rate of 29% against power pitchers and 24% overall. The Giants have struck out the seventh-most times in baseball, and Burnes averages 8.4 punch outs per game. The key for Burnes is getting through 6 innings.