Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 8/6/21. All odds for August 6 MLB bet picks were obtained from PointsBet.
On Tuesday, we took the Yankees Over 3 in the first five innings against a lefty. It cashed by the third inning. Today, we’re looking at the same team for the same type of wager.
Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 8/6/21.
- Overall: 28-19 (+5.76 units)
- Team Totals: 10-7 (+0.62 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 14-6-3 (+6.99 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-2 (-1.35 units)
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MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 8/6/21
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: SEA LHP Marco Gonzales @ NYY LHP Wandy Peralta
Yankees Over 2.5 Runs in First Five Innings (-140)
Wager: 1.40 unit
The Yankees have crushed lefties as of late and there’s no better lefty to crush than one who gives up a lot of long balls.
Left-hander Marco Gonzales will take the mound for the Mariners with a 5.15 ERA on the season. He’s been better as of late, allowing two runs or fewer in his last three starts, although they came against the Rockies, Athletics and Rangers. Now he’s taking on the Bronx Bombers, who are starting to figure it out offensively thanks to their additions at the trade deadline.
Gonzales has an XFIP of 5.44 in his last 30 days and is striking out just 15.1 percent of batters in those 30 days. On top of that, he’s getting just 37 percent of ground balls, allowing nearly 22 percent of line drives and giving up 35.6 percent hard contact.
Lefties have an ISO of .286 against Gonzales in his last 22 plate appearances while righties have a wOBA of .345 and ISO of .185. What stands out the most is Gonzales allowing 2.09 home runs per nine innings. The Bronx Bombers have showcased some power at home and have built their team to be more of a home run threat with Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo being able to hit home runs against lefties from the left side.
The Yankees lineup combined has a wOBA of .409 and ISO of .224, and that’s with Jonathan Davis batting ninth in center field. Even if Brett Gardner plays instead of Davis in tonight’s game, that would help the Yankees case, surprisingly enough.
In the first five innings, the Yankees will need three runs. Gonzales has allowed multiple home runs in five starts this season and at least one home run in every game but four. Basically, he’s allowed two home runs or more in a start than he’s allowed none.
If the Yankees can get a couple base runners before the blast, we’ll be cashing this ticket.