The New Orleans Saints enter a new era in 2021 with Drew Brees in retirement following 15 spectacular seasons with New Orleans. That leaves Sean Payton‘s squad with some serious questions to answer going into the new season, even with key talent returning on both sides of the ball. The Game Day is here to preview some of the best Saints prop bets for 2021.
Saints Prop Bets 2021: Best New Orleans Odds + Betting Picks
Saints Prop Bets 2021: Team Bet Picks
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New Orleans Saints Under 9 Regular-Season Wins (-105)
The departure of Brees this offseason could be akin to pulling the one thread that unravels everything, as New Orleans will almost assuredly find life without the future Hall of Famer even more difficult than imagined. There’s a certain complacency that settles in when a team has a surefire, long-term answer under center, and the abrupt jolt of a downgrade to either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill will likely lead to an up-and-down season for the Saints.
Compounding matters is that top receiver Michael Thomas will be unavailable for the start of the season while he recovers from ankle surgery. Combined with the departures of veterans Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook this offseason, the pass-catching cupboard is relatively bare for New Orleans as they embark on the impossible task of trying to fill Brees’ shoes.
The Saints’ strength of schedule only ranks 22nd, with their opponents sporting a combined .483 winning percentage in 2020. However, New Orleans has to deal with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and an improved Carolina Panthers squad in their own division. What’s more, they draw the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, and Dallas Cowboys among their non-division opponents.
As such, even with a 17-game season, I see this as a seven-to-eight-win team at best.
New Orleans Saints To Miss Playoffs (-120)
Building on the previous prediction, I see New Orleans definitely missing out on the playoffs with an 8-9 record or worse. The quarterback play is likely to be spotty regardless of who wins the job, and it could end up becoming a revolving door throughout the season. The receiving corps figures to be quite pedestrian until Thomas comes back, which may not be until the second half.
Alvin Kamara is still a force to be reckoned with, and a talented defense will do its best to keep games close. The Saints’ schedule won’t be easy, however, making 2021 a non-contending campaign in my view.
Saints Prop Bets 2021: Player Bet Picks
Alvin Kamara Over 945.5 Rushing Yards (+100)
Kamara is coming off a season in which he compiled a career-high 932 rushing yards over 15 games, with his epic 155-yard, six-touchdown Christmas Day performance giving him a serious boost. Had he suited up for the season’s final game, he may have eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career.
Given the Saints’ lack of quality receiving options and potentially erratic quarterback play, Kamara should see plenty of work on the ground this year, even with established veterans Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman on the roster.
With a 17-game regular season, Kamara will only need to average 56 rushing yards per contest if he plays every game for this prop to hit. Given his durability (only four total games missed in four seasons) and potential increase in carries, he’s a good bet to hit the over here.
Jameis Winston Most Regular-Season Interceptions Thrown (+2500)
There isn’t exactly a wealth of Saints player props available at the moment, but this one is an interesting one to consider when factoring in the highly appealing price. The one main conundrum here is not an inability on Winston’s part to lead the league in picks, but whether he’ll be given enough opportunities to do so.
Winston led the NFL with 30 interceptions in his last season as a starter in 2019, so New Orleans may choose to mix and match with Hill where possible. The lack of receiving talent will likely lead to a high number of turnovers for Winston when he does play, however. If you have the bankroll, a +2500 price on this prop for a mistake-prone QB merits a look.