MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/30/21

Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 7/30/21. All odds for July 30 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM.

The MLB trade deadline is approaching today with many star players potentially on the move. Be careful with your bets and confirm lineups before placing any wagers.

Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 7/30/21.

  • Overall: 25-19 (+2.76 units)
  • Team Totals: 10-7 (+0.62 units)
  • First 5 IP Bets: 11-6-3 (+3.99 units)
  • Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
  • Totals: 1-2 (-1.35 units)

MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/30/21

Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET)

  • Probable Pitchers: PHI RHP Vince Velasquez @ PIT RHP Wil Crowe

Over 4.5 Runs In First Five Innings (-120)

Wager: 1 unit

prop bet

-120

Over 4.5 Total Runs Scored In 1st 5 Innings (PHI @ PIT)

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All July 30 MLB bets, odds, and lines are courtesy of BetMGM. BetMGM offers a Risk-Free Bet for up to $600 for new players.

At this point, it looks like the Pirates are done trading position players ahead of the deadline. They moved Adam Frazier and dealt pitchers Tyler Anderson and Clay Holmes as well. If they do make any more swaps at the deadline, it’ll likely involve other pitchers like Richard Rodriguez.

Pittsburgh’s lineup has actually done well in the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, compiling a .264 ISO with a .369 wOBA. That makes them dangerous against Velasquez, who has a 10.91 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in four starts this month while allowing seven home runs and a 1.186 opponent OPS in 15 2/3 innings. Velasquez has been getting hammered all season, as evidenced by his 41.7% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate, which are both career-worsts.

On the other hand, the Pirates will trot out Crowe, who’s struggled all year with a 5.89 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP over 65 2/3 innings. Similar to Velasquez, he’s been hit hard this season based on his 2.1 HR/9 rate, 37.4% hard-hit rate, and 10.1% barrel rate.

The Phillies’ lineup has come around after a slow start, averaging 5.23 runs per game since the beginning of June. They also come into this game with a .222 ISO and a .336 wOBA in the last 30 days against righties.

Accordingly, nobody would be surprised if both of these starters allowed more than three runs. With the line at 4.5 total runs in the first five innings, betting the over is the way to go.

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