MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/19/21

Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 7/19/21. All odds for July 19 MLB bet picks were obtained from DraftKings.

On Friday, we cashed another ticket. Now we’ll have multiple days to bring home the bacon. Tonight, I’m thinking about fading my favorite team. I haven’t done this all this season, but I’m going where the value is.

Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 7/19/21.

  • Overall: 22-17 (+1.86 units)
  • Team Totals: 10-7 (+.62 units)
  • First 5 IP Bets: 8-5-3 (+2.04 units)
  • Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
  • Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)

MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/19/21

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds (7:10 p.m. ET)

  • Probable Pitchers: NYM RHP Jerad Eickhoff @ CIN RHP Vladimir Gutierrez

Reds Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (-130)

Wager: 1.20 units

prop bet

-130

Cincinnati Reds Over 2.5 First Five Team Total (NYM @ CIN, 7/19)

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I haven’t faded my favorite team at all this season, but there’s always room for a first. I’m going against the New York Mets. They’ll have Jerad Eickhoff take the mound for his fourth start of the season. In his first three starts, he’s allowed six home runs with 17 hits in 12 2/3 innings. He’s also walked four and struck out only six batters.

The reason he’s been able to limit even more damage is because nearly every runner on base has been left on. All six home runs have been solo shots. Only one run was batted in with a single.

For the season, he has a 4.97 ERA, but a 9.33 FIP. He’s been absolutely torched in his first three starts but has escaped damage nearly every game beyond the home runs. That’s not going to last, even against a struggling Reds offense.

Eickhoff has an XFIP of 7.07 in the last 30 days along with just 7.5% strikeouts. He’s allowing only 30.6% ground balls and giving up 58.3% hard contact.

Against his last 23 lefties, Eickhoff is allowing a .639 wOBA and a .739 ISO. In the Reds lineup, we’ll likely see four lefties including Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Tyler Naquin and Tucker Barnhart. This Reds lineup has been struggling to put the ball in play recently against righties, but that all changes tonight against Eickhoff. A couple power shots with runners on base is all that’s needed for this Mets team.

The Mets bullpen had to go 8 2/3 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates last night due to starting pitcher Taijuan Walker having a tough outing. The Mets are going to want Eickhoff to eat innings regardless of his performance and thus should keep him in until he allows at least three runs in this one.

Plus, the weather will be solid for the bats in Cincinnati. It’ll be 84 degrees with the wind blowing toward right field, where all the lefties will be able to pull the ball for the Reds. That’ll help the ball reach the seats a bit.

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