MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/16/21

Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today 7/16/21. All odds for July 8 MLB bet picks were obtained from PointsBet.

It’s been so long since I’ve been able to give out a best bet on The Game Day. But we’re back from the All-Star break! We’ve got some MLB action on Friday, and I’ve found a wager that I’ll be riding for today.

Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 7/16/21.

  • Overall: 21-17 (+.86 units)
  • Team Totals: 10-7 (+.62 units)
  • First 5 IP Bets: 7-5-3 (+1.04 units)
  • Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
  • Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)

MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/16/21

Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 p.m. ET)

  • Probable Pitchers: MIA RHP Sandy Alcantara @ PHI LHP Matt Moore

Over 3.5 Runs in First Five Innings (-135) via BetMGM

Wager: 1.35 units

moneyline

-135

Marlins @ Phillies: 4+ Runs in 1st 5 Innings (7/16/21)

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I’m not the biggest fan of betting double-headers, but this will be the one time out of the entire season where I’m going to go with it. The Phillies are going to pitch Matt Moore, a left-handed starter with a 5.40 ERA on the season.

Moore wasn’t pitching in the majors from May 20 to June 25. On June 25, he went five scoreless against the Mets and allowed just one walk and three hits along with two strikeouts.

But in his next two starts, he was a bit more vulnerable. Moore allowed four runs in 8.1 innings with eight hits, five walks and two home runs. He also only struck out five batters and gave up 19 fly balls to nine ground balls. Those are below-average performances.

To be fair, Moore has been a bit lucky recently. His ERA is sitting at 5.40 but his FIP is worse at 6.23. His xFIP is also at 5.93 and he’s got a SIERA of 5.54.

In the last 30 days, Moore has really struggled against righties, as a left-handed thrower. Righties are hitting a .353 wOBA along with an ISO of .258. He’s also walking righties 13.2 percent of the time which is the same percentage of strikeouts he’s obtained.

The Marlins should have seven righties in the lineup along with a lone lefty in Jazz Chisholm, who has plenty of power against lefties. He’s actually better against lefties.

With that, this Marlins lineup combined has a .199 ISO and a .353 wOBA while walking 10 percent of the time and limiting ground balls to 39 percent. The strikeouts are usually high but should be low enough against Moore who only strikes out 12.1 percent of batters in the last 30 days he’s pitched.

On the other hand, Sandy Alcantara will take the hill for the Marlins. He’s struggled a bit as of late and has allowed 11 runs in his last three games. In two of those three, he allowed 10 runs and kept the Braves in check before that.

Alcantara has had some success against the Phillies this season. He’s gone 14 innings allowing just four hits with 13 strikeouts. But that was back in May when the sticky stuff was allowed and the Phillies didn’t have most of their lineup.

The strikeouts are much lower for Alcantara as of late as he’s only surpassed four strikeouts once in his last four starts.

The Phillies lineup has a .284 ISO and a .371 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days and have a bunch of lefties that can do serious damage to Alcantara who is allowing a .432 wOBA to lefties in the last 41 at-bats.

I wouldn’t be surprised when both starters allow two or more runs in five innings today with weather perfect for the bats.

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