Here’s The Game Day’s Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 4 Prediction with 2021 NBA Finals Picks.
As soon as Giannis Antetokounmpo entered the Fiserv Forum on Sunday wearing black Nike Air Force 1’s, it was clear that the Phoenix Suns didn’t stand a chance. Giannis was spectacular once again in Game 3, scoring 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting from the floor with 13 rebounds and six assists. It was the play of his supporting cast, however, that helped the Milwaukee Bucks to their first win of the series.
Jrue Holiday finally got hot from deep, draining 5-of-10 three-pointers in Game 3 while also showing tenacity on the defensive end. His length and on-ball pressure made it difficult for Devin Booker to get going offensively, ultimately limiting the Suns’ star to just 10 points on 3-of-14 shooting.
After winning the first quarter, Phoenix was outscored by 18 in the second quarter and never recovered. Milwaukee’s crowd was raucous all night as the Bucks cruised to a 20-point victory. If the Suns are going to steal Game 4 on the road, they’ll have to pick up the intensity on the defensive end and push the tempo on the offensive end.
Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals will start at 9:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 14, and will air on ABC, with Milwaukee favored to win by 4.5 points at home, per BetMGM.
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Phoenix Suns vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 4 Analysis
Antetokounmpo was the story of Game 3, delivering the kind of superstar performance that legends are made of. He’s now scored over 40 points in each of the last two games. That kind of output is hard to maintain, but it might be necessary if the Bucks are going to even the series before heading back to Phoenix.
Holiday needs to continue looking for his shot, and Khris Middleton also needs to contribute offensively. If Middleton isn’t scoring the basketball, he at least needs to facilitate to find open looks for Antetokounmpo and Holiday. In order for Milwaukee to take Game 4, Holiday and/or Middleton will likely need to score at least 20 points, especially if Giannis comes back to earth a bit.
Meanwhile, Phoenix played timidly in Game 3. Their three-point attempts weren’t falling (29.0%), and they didn’t attack the basket enough (11-of-16 from the free-throw line) to compensate. They also allowed too many second-chance points, giving up a whopping 13 offensive rebounds to the Bucks. The Suns were out of the game by the beginning of the fourth quarter and ended up losing by 20 — their worst loss of the playoffs thus far.
That said, the Suns aren’t going to get blown out again in Game 4. They’ve only lost back-to-back games once in the postseason, and it was all the way back in the first round against the Los Angeles Lakers. I think there’s a good chance Phoenix wins Game 4 outright, but I’ll hedge and take them +4.5 at BetMGM.
Milwaukee Bucks: Keys To Victory
- Holiday and Middleton step up on offense.
- Keep the home crowd engaged.
- Focus on neutralizing Booker.
- Continue to crash the glass on offense and get second-chance points.
Phoenix Suns: Keys To Victory
- Find a way to limit Giannis on offense.
- Keep Milwaukee off the boards.
- Start fast and take the home crowd out of the game early
- Keep feeding Deandre Ayton in the paint, especially when he has a mismatch.
2021 NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Predictions
2021 NBA Finals Game 4 Player Prop Bets
It’s clear that Milwaukee is a better team when Holiday is aggressive in looking for his spots and getting his teammates involved. In his last five home playoff games, he’s averaging 38.2 Points+Rebounds+Assists (PRA), and his line for Game 4 sits at just 32.5 (-115). He’s gone over 32.5 PRA in four of those five games, and I think he’ll come out aggressive again on Wednesday night.
Ayton scored a quick 18 points in the first half of Game 3, but didn’t record a single point after that. He dealt with some early foul trouble and ended up only playing 24 minutes as Phoenix pulled its starters. It was a clear part of the Suns’ game plan to feed Ayton down low, especially when he had a smaller defender on his back. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should play closer to his usual 40 minutes in Game 4 and score at least 17 points, which he’s already done twice this series.
Prior to Game 3, Chris Paul had scored at least 22 points in four straight playoff games. The last time Phoenix lost a playoff game, he followed it up with a 41-point showing in Game 6 vs. the Los Angeles Clippers in the Western Conference Finals. Look for him to be more aggressive with his shot in Game 4 after attempting just 14 field goals in Game 3. He has taken 19 or more shots in seven of his last eight games and is shooting 50.6% from the field over that stretch, so I like him to score more than 21 points in Game 4.
2021 NBA Finals Game 4 Single-Game Parlay
- Jrue Holiday (Bucks): Over 32.5 PRA (-115) at BetMGM
- Deandre Ayton (Suns): Over 16.5 Points (-115) at BetMGM
- Chris Paul (Suns): Over 21.5 Points (-120) at BetMGM
Make a Single-Game Parlay with these bets (+540) at BetMGM:
Check out our full 2021 NBA Finals Game 4 picks + analysis:
Bucks vs Suns 2021 NBA Finals Schedule
- Game 1: Bucks 105, Suns 118
- Game 2: Bucks 108, Suns 118
- Game 3: Suns 100, Bucks 120
- Game 4: Wednesday, July 14, at Milwaukee, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
- Game 5: Saturday, July 17, at Phoenix, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)
- Game 6: Tuesday, July 20, at Milwaukee, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)*
- Game 7: Thursday, July 22, at Phoenix, 9 p.m. ET (ABC)*