Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today 7/7/21. All odds for July 7 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM.
The Cincinnati Reds did some damage last night and scored five runs by the fourth inning. That one felt good. Let’s keep the momentum going into today’s best bet.
Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 7/7/21.
- Overall: 20-16 (+.96 units)
- Team Totals: 9-6 (+.72 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 7-5-3 (+1.04 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)
MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/7/21
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (4:07 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: BOS: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez | LAA: LHP Andrew Heaney
Red Sox Over 4.5 Total Runs (-110)
Wager: 1.10 units
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Andrew Heaney is slated to take the mound for the Angels today after allowing 15 runs in his last three starts. In those three starts, Heaney has thrown just 14 innings and has given up five home runs along with five walks and 20 hits.
The southpaw was known for high spin rates, especially on his fastball. But with the crackdown of the sticky stuff, Heaney has been affected without question.
Heaney will still blow by hitters and get high strikeout totals from time to time, but he’ll also make mistakes occasionally. Good hitters can capitalize on those mistakes. He’s allowed 1.76 home runs per nine innings and is walking 7.8 percent of batters. Heaney’s WHIP has reached 1.34 and he currently has an ERA of 5.40 due to his BABIP sitting at .324.
Sometimes, BABIP can be deceiving. For Heaney, it’s deserved as he’s giving up 37 percent hard contact on the year and close to 50 percent hard contact in the last 30 days. Again, is that a coincidence? Without the sticky stuff, he’s getting hit harder, giving up more home runs, and plenty more hits.
You can be the judge there but I certainly believe so.
The Red Sox lineup from top to bottom limits their strikeouts against lefties. The projected lineup strikes out 22.8 percent of the time in the last 30 days with Christian Arroyo and Bobby Dalbec being the reason it’s that high in the first place. The rest of the lineup is striking out under 19 percent of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.
Heaney is also a pitcher who doesn’t get that many ground balls. He’s inducing just 31.1 percent of grounders recently and the Red Sox are only hitting an average of 42 percent of grounders with the projected lineup.
With Heaney on the mound and the Angels bullpen taking over later in the game, the Red Sox will have countless opportunities to cash in with temperatures over 80 degrees and wind near 10 mph blowing out to center field.