MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/6/21

Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today 7/6/21. All odds for July 6 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM.

We’re back for another week on baseball. When I first started writing for The Game Day, I was on a hot streak. Then I went on a cold streak and now we’re basically back to even for the plays posted on the site. Baseball is a sport that you have to grind out every single day. But if you do grind it out day-by-day with no days off, profit will come.

Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 7/6/21.

  • Overall: 19-16 (-.03 units)
  • Team Totals: 8-6 (-.27 units)
  • First 5 IP Bets: 7-5-3 (+1.04 units)
  • Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
  • Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)

MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 7/6/21

Cincinnati Reds @ Kansas City Royals (8:10 p.m. ET)

  • Probable Pitchers: CIN: RHP Luis Castillo| KC: LHP Kris Bubic

Reds to score 5+ Runs (-155)

Wager: 1 units

prop bet

-155

Reds To Score 5+ Runs (CIN @ KC)

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Kris Bubic will take the mound for the Royals after allowing five runs on four hits with three walks and three home runs against the Red Sox on July 1. The left-hander has an ERA of 4.99, a WHIP of 1.51 and is walking 11.8 percent of batters faced this season. With his ERA sitting at 4.99, things don’t look too good. But what if I told you, he’s actually been lucky to have a 4.99 ERA? Would you believe me?

Bubic has a 6.12 FIP and has allowed 2.06 home runs per nine innings on the year along with 4.64 walks per nine innings.

The Reds lineup has plenty of power to get after Bubic early.

At the top of the order, Jonathan India is expected to return to the lineup after being scratched last night due to a sore ankle. He’s dominated left-handed pitching and has a wOBA of .445 in the last 29 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos and Tyler Stephenson have plenty of power against lefties and have both been able to limit strikeouts as of late.

Even the bottom half of the Reds lineup is getting on base against lefties with Aristides Aquino and Kyle Farmer each having high wOBA north of .400 in the last 30 days.

Bubic is giving up 52.9 percent hard contact as of late and hasn’t pitched into the 5th inning since the month of May. That’s how bad his June was.

In June, Bubic allowed 29 hits in 18.2 innings and gave up eight home runs in the process. Clearly, the home run ball didn’t stop there as he allowed three in July against the Red Sox in his first start this month.

Also, since the crackdown of sticky stuff, Bubic hasn’t been able to strike out more than three batters in his last four starts. He also couldn’t get through three innings in his previous three starts before the game against Boston.

Lefties and righties are hitting an OPS around .850 each and while lefties don’t have the highest average against Bubic, they’ve got three home runs and a double in 36 at-bats.

Jesse Winker, one of two lefties expected in the lineup, already has a home run against Bubic in his career. Winker, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Farmer, and Castellanos are hitting a combined .433 against Bubic in 13 at-bats with an OPS of 1.400.

Plus, with Kansas City being the home team, the Reds will have a designated hitter in the lineup instead of a pitcher batting 9th. It’s also going to be 88 degrees with 8 miles per hour wind blowing out into left field. The expectation is that the right-handed batters pull the ball against Bubic into left field for some home run shots. Let’s make it happen!

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