Rams-Packers Bet Tips & Picks for NFC Divisional Playoffs
The Los Angeles Rams visit the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field on Saturday at 4:35 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Rams-Packers Bet Tips and Rams-Packers picks.
Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Odds and lines for Rams-Packers picks are from PointsBet, current as of Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.
Rams-Packers Bet Tips & Picks for NFL Divisional Playoffs
Picks in this article
Rams-Packers Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Rams-Packers Picks
- Against The Spread: Packers -6.5 (-110) / Rams +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Packers (-320) / Rams (+245)
- Total: 45.5 — Over 45.5 (-115) / Under 45.5 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Packers 26, Rams 19.5
The Rams are dealing with injuries to key offensive pieces, but that did not stop them in recent weeks. Not only did they beat the Cardinals in the season finale while shorthanded just to officially qualify for the postseason, but they also defeated the Seahawks last week to advance to Divisional Weekend.
While the Rams are 6-4 in their past 10 games overall, they are 4-2 in their past six including imperative victories in each of their past two games. Meanwhile, they will get a Packers club that is predominantly healthy outside of one key injury at left tackle. The Packers are 8-2 in their past 10 games and have been victorious in six consecutive contests.
Rams-Packers Bet Tips: Key Injuries
The Rams are dealing with key injuries on their offense. While QB Jared Goff is still dealing with his thumb injury, his primary backup, John Wolford is managing a neck injury suffered in last week’s win over the Seahawks which is said to be a stinger.
With both signal-callers banged-up, Rams HC Sean McVay is mum on naming a starter. However, we should assume that it will be Goff under center on Saturday against the Packers in a game with this much magnitude.
Outside of quarterback, the Rams’ are dealing with an injury at wide receiver as well. Stud slot WR Cooper Kupp suffered a knee injury in last week’s win over Seattle. While he was able to exit the field under his own power, which is always a positive sign, Kupp’s availability for Divisional Weekend remains very much up in the air. Dealing with bursitis in his knee, which is swelling or irritation of a fluid-filled sac around the knee joint. Before leaving with the injury, Kupp caught 4-of-9 targets for 78 yards in the victory.
This could come down to a “pain management” issue for Kupp. You’d have to expect that he will be out there if he is able, even if he is not close to 100%.
If Kupp sits or is limited, Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson would pick up his snaps in the slot.
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While the Packers are predominantly healthy, they do have one injury that is a significant one. Preceding Week 17’s win over the Bears, start LT David Bakhtiari tore his ACL at a Thursday practice. As a result, Bakhtiari was placed on the injured reserve list. Billy Turner will continue to start in Bakhtiari’s absence.
Bakhtiari was the No. 2 graded (91.8) tackle at Pro Football Focus on 758 offensive snaps this season. Turner was graded out as the 45th best tackle at PFF with a 69.3 grade on 884 snaps.
With Turner sliding over to the left side of the line, expect Ricky Wagner and Yosuah Nijman to manage the right.
Rams-Packers Picks: Players to Watch
Rams RB Cam Akers must have a big game if the Rams are going to have a chance to derail the Packers in Green Bay. While you can pass on the packers, they do have a managing pass-rush that can get home. However, where you can get to the Packers is running the football down their throats. We have seen them struggle against power running teams in recent years.
The Packers surrendered the 13th fewest rushing yards per game (112.8) this season with the 10th most rushing touchdowns (14) and the third-most receiving touchdowns (5) allowed to enemy backs.
In seven games since Week 11, Akers has broken out. While he’s scored a touchdown in four of those seven outings, Akers went for 84+ total yards in five of his past six games since Week 12, including two games with 176+ total yards. One of those games happened in last week’s win over the Seahawks in which Akers went for 176 total yards with a touchdown on 30 touches (two receptions). Akers has also drawn 22+ touches in four of his past five games as well.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has a tall task ahead. While he has led the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense at 31.8 points per game, he gets a Rams defense that is arguably the best in the NFL.
While the Rams are first in fewest total yards (281.9), passing yards (190.7), and points allowed per game (18.5), they are also third in rushing yards allowed per game (91.3). What’s more, the Rams also sacked the quarterback 53 times this season, good for second-most in the NFL. There is not a weakness on that defense.
Sure, Rodgers is a special player, but he will need some help from Aaron Jones. If Jones can get going to establish the run, the Rams will have to respect what Green Bay brings rushing the football, which makes Rodgers’ life a lot easier trying to find the open man amidst one of the stingiest secondaries the NFL has to offer. If the Rams can shut down Jones with their stout front, they can pin their proverbial ears back and send pressure. No quarterback, Rodgers included, is infallible with heat in their face.
Jones is a lot to handle, however. Finishing fourth in rushing yards (1104) on the 10th most carries (201) with 11 total touchdowns in 14 games, Jones is one of the most efficient backs in football. Jones ended the regular season fifth in true yards per carry (4.9) and fourth in yards per touch (5.9).
You can make the case that whichever team runs the ball better on Saturday will win this game.
Rams-Packers Picks: Weather Report
The weather at Lambeau Field calls for a clear and sunny afternoon at the time of kickoff with a 7% chance of precipitation.
The temperature for the game is set at 31 degrees Fahrenheit with 8 mph winds blowing West-NorthWest.
Rams-Packers Picks & Bet Tips
BEST BET: Packers -6.5 (-110)
LA @ GB | 01/16, 4:35 PM
On Super Wild-Card Weekend, we saw two games that I felt would be close early, but the better team would ultimately pull away. In both the Buccaneers’ win over the Football Team and the Saints’ win over the Bears, that narrative held true. Those games we close. They looked like they could go either way. However, when it was all said and done, the teams with the better offenses overcame their defensively-strong goes.
I see this Rams-Packers matchup having a similar outcome. The Rams have enough firepower on offense to score with the best of them, but a healthy Jared Goff is as erratic and inconsistent as they come. On Saturday, we are not getting a healthy Goff. Heck, for all we know, John Wolford could start or at least see time as well due to Goff’s ailing thumb. What’s more, Cooper Kupp may not play, and if he does, he will likely play with limitations thanks to knee bursitis.
As I said above in the “Players to Watch” section, the key to this game for the Rams is Cam Akers. On top of Akers, the Rams’ defense will have to pitch close to a perfect game while pressuring Aaron Rodgers to stifle the league’s best scoring offense.
The Los Angeles defense has held opponents to fewer than 23 points in each of their past five games, including two games holding foes to under seven. However, outside of the Cardinals’, the Rams have not played a high-octane offense in that period. They got Seattle twice, but the Seahawks’ offense was a shell of themselves compared to what they were early in the year.
As good as the Rams’ defense is, they will have a hard time shutting down the Packers. The Packers have scored 24+ points in seven straight games, including six games putting up north of 30.
Turnovers will prove to be deadly for the Rams. The Packers had a +7 turnover differential while the Rams ended the regular season at -3.
When it is all said and done, Green Bay will advance and cover.
Against the Spread: Bet Stats to Know
- The Packers are 5-5 against the spread in their past 10 games but 4-2 in their past six, including two straight covers.
- The Rams are 6-4 ATS in their past 10 games and 4-2 in their past six, also covering in two consecutive contests.
- The Packers have covered the spread in each of their past six meetings with the Rams.
- The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their past four home games facing a team with a winning road record.
- The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. In this case, the Packers are the favorite.
CONSIDER: Over 45.5 (-115)
LA @ GB | 01/16, 4:35 PM
Although this game features two stout defenses, one more so than the other, the over is the play.
The Packers defense is surrendering the 13th fewest points per game (23.1) while the Rams are yielding the fewest PPG (18.5). As good as both defensive units can play, we have seen them struggle at times this season.
You can run on the Packers. And while the Rams are outstanding on defense, they aren’t holding opponents to under 20 points on a weekly basis. The Rams have given up 27+ points to the Bills (35), Dolphins (28), Cardinals (28), and the Buccaneers (27). Three of those four teams employ offenses that are amongst the league’s best. Now, the Rams will get the very best in the form of the Packers.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay offense has hung points on the best of them. The Packers have scored 31+ points on the Bears twice (35, 41), Colts (31), Saints (37), and 49ers (34). While none of those defenses are as stout as the Rams, they are in the top half of the league. The only top-end defense to shut down the Packers was the Buccaneers, who held them to 10 points.
While this may be a lower scoring game early, I expect points to pick up in the second half with the Packers eventually pulling away.
Over/Under: Bet Stats to Know
- The Over is 3-4 in the past seven meetings between the Packers and Rams, going Under in each of their past two matchups.
- The Over is 2-4 in the Rams’ past six games, hitting last week snapping four straight games meeting the Under.
- The Over is 3-4 in the Packers’ past seven games, hitting in two straight.
- The Over is 5-0 in the Packers’ past five postseason games.
- Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- The Over is 5-0 in the Rams’ past five games in the Divisional Playoffs.
PASS: Rams (+245)
This is the NFL Playoffs. Anything can happen. I have said this a lot this season in my write-ups, “I can not blame anyone for betting one way or another” in this PASS/ CONSIDER section, but I won’t sign off on it. This is one of those games.
While the Rams have the league’s best defense, I have trust issues surrounding their offense and ability to consistently move the football and put points on the board. And even if they can do that, they, more so, Jared Goff, simply turns the football over way too much. If you do that against a team like the Packers, you will eventually fall.
I am punting the Rams’ Moneyline. They have too much to overcome, especially playing on the road in a stored postseason stadium like Lambeau Field.
Anthony Cervino is 70-55-4 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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