Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today 6/21/21. All odds for June 21 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM.
On Thursday, we produced a winner with the Yankees and Blue Jays going over 5.5 in the first five innings despite a triple play with guys on second and third and a strikeout from Aaron Judge in another inning with one out and bases loaded. It was a sweat when it really shouldn’t have been. Anyway, let’s build off that win tonight.
Here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 6/17/21.
- Overall: 14-15 (-2.61 units)
- Team Totals: 6-6 (+0.15 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 4-5-3 (-1.96 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)
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MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 6/21/21
Cincinnati Reds @ Minnesota Twins (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Reds @ Twins June 21 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Tyler Mahle (CIN) vs. LHP A. Happ (MIN)
Over 4.5 runs scored for the Reds (-115)
Wager: 1.15 units
It’s been a miserable season for Twins lefty J.A. Happ. The 38-year-old left-hander is beginning to show age as he has allowed multiple earned runs in his last seven starts.
It all started against the White Sox, who had the time, destroyed lefties. He allowed nine runs in the first game and six runs in the second game without pitching into the fourth inning in either of those games.
He continued to struggle against the Indians and allowed seven earned runs to the Royals in back-to-back starts, throwing just 10 innings. After that, Happ went and faced the Yankees and allowed four runs in five innings, and most recently, he allowed six runs (5 ER) to the Mariners, in a 10-0 defeat where he allowed nine hits in four innings.
In the last 30 days, Happ has an xFIP of 5.63 and while he has limited walks, he’s only striking out about 20 percent of batters. Happ has also given up 51.4 percent hard contact, meaning every time a batter hits the ball, there’s a 50/50 chance the ball will come off the bat hard with exit velocity.
In his last 88 plate appearances against righties, Happ has allowed a wOBA of .391 and an ISO of .301 while giving up an average exit velocity of 92.6 mph. The Reds will more than likely have seven righties in the lineup, including a designated hitter due to playing on the road against an AL team in Minnesota.
The two lefties expected in the lineup would be Joey Votto and Jesse Winker. Currently, Winker is playing at an All-Star-caliber level, while Votto has seen Happ 23 times in his career.
Votto has gone 9-for-23 against Happ with four doubles and a home run. That’s a .391 average with an OPS of 1.157 against Votto.
Another bat that has seen Happ consistently would be Nick Castellanos, who just like Winker is playing like an All-Star. He has 12 hits in 22 at-bats against Happ with two doubles, one triple, and a home run along with seven runs batted in.
The projected lineup for the Reds has a combined isolated power number of .273 in the last 30 days against lefties, and that’s not even including slugger Aristides Aquino who came off the injured list last week. Aquino is known for his power against lefty pitchers and has already hit a home run since returning.
The Reds will have a full nine innings to score five runs in this game. Happ has allowed five or more runs by himself four times this season and has given up at least four runs six times this year. Look for the Reds to add to those totals.