MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21

Posted: May 28, 2021Last updated: May 28, 2021

Here’s your MLB Betting Picks of the Day and the Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21. All odds for May 28 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM, which offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.

There are some exciting pitching matchups for today’s slate, including two MLB debuts and the return of Framber Valdez for the Astros. But with heavy rain in the forecast, many games will likely be delayed or postponed, giving bettors a smaller lineup of games to choose from. Accordingly, I’m only betting on one game tonight.

As always, you can find my bets — including any late additions to the card — on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21.

  • Overall: 12-6 (+4.54 units)
  • Team Totals: 5-3 (+1.35 units)
  • First 5 IP Bets: 4-2-2 (+1.49 units)
  • Moneylines: 3-1 (+1.70 units)

MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (8:10 p.m. ET)

  • Probable Pitchers: LHP Kris Bubic (KCR) vs. RHP Randy Dobnak (MIN)

Over 8.5 Runs Scored (-120)

Wager: 1.20 units 

Kris Bubic has been excellent in his two starts this year, allowing just 2 earned runs on 7 hits and 5 walks with 7 strikeouts over 11 innings. However, he seems ripe for regression due to his high walk rate, as he’s issued 12 free passes over his last 21 2/3 innings. He’s also been fortunate not to surrender a home run yet this year, which is bound to change eventually.

Furthermore, some of his other peripheral numbers suggest he’s been extremely lucky thus far, such as his .234 BABIP and 85.2 percent strand rate. His 1.52 ERA is considerably lower than his expected ERA of 3.33, so it’s only a matter of time before he experiences a rough outing.

Don’t be surprised if that happens tonight against Minnesota’s potent offense, which currently ranks third in the AL in homers. The Twins have been on a roll lately, winning 6 of their last 7 games and averaging 6.43 runs per game during that stretch. They’re also one of the better-hitting teams against left-handed pitching, posting MLB’s ninth-highest wRC+ (108) versus southpaws.

Minnesota will need to score plenty of runs in this one, as Randy Dobnak will likely give up his fair share as well. Dobnak enters play on Friday with a 5.75 ERA and has been hit hard this year, allowing 21 hits (including 4 home runs) in 20 1/3 innings.

Based on the pitching matchup, I fully expect both teams to score at least 4-5 runs in this game. If that happens, we’ve got an automatic winner in our hands.

After reading MLB Betting Picks of the Day with our Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21, read the rest of our MLB betting tips for May 28 and beyond — and check out our favorite welcome offers from our partners. 


Jason Radowitz

Jason Radowitz is a jack of all trades when it comes to writing sports. Jason writes and bets the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB when the sports are in season. Currently, he's a Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day providing daily content in the MLB. Earlier in his sports career, Jason was a graduate assistant for the University of Hartford Men's Basketball team using analytics and numbers to help put together the winningest season in program history. With his articles, you will be sure to get an analytical approach.

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