MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21

Here’s your MLB Betting Picks of the Day and the Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21. All odds for May 28 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM, which offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.

There are some exciting pitching matchups for today’s slate, including two MLB debuts and the return of Framber Valdez for the Astros. But with heavy rain in the forecast, many games will likely be delayed or postponed, giving bettors a smaller lineup of games to choose from. Accordingly, I’m only betting on one game tonight.

As always, you can find my bets — including any late additions to the card — on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21.

  • Overall: 12-6 (+4.54 units)
  • Team Totals: 5-3 (+1.35 units)
  • First 5 IP Bets: 4-2-2 (+1.49 units)
  • Moneylines: 3-1 (+1.70 units)

MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 5/28/21

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins (8:10 p.m. ET)

  • Probable Pitchers: LHP Kris BubicΒ (KCR) vs. RHP Randy DobnakΒ (MIN)

Over 8.5 Runs Scored (-120)

Wager: 1.20 unitsΒ 

prop bet

-120

Royals & Twins To Score Over 8.5 Total Runs

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Bet $20, Payout $37

Kris Bubic has been excellent in his two starts this year, allowing just 2 earned runs on 7 hits and 5 walks with 7 strikeouts over 11 innings. However, he seems ripe for regression due to his high walk rate, as he’s issued 12 free passes over his last 21 2/3 innings. He’s also been fortunate not to surrender a home run yet this year, which is bound to change eventually.

Furthermore, some of his other peripheral numbers suggest he’s been extremely lucky thus far, such as his .234 BABIP and 85.2 percent strand rate. His 1.52 ERA is considerably lower than his expected ERA of 3.33, so it’s only a matter of time before he experiences a rough outing.

Don’t be surprised if that happens tonight against Minnesota’s potent offense, which currently ranks third in the AL in homers. The Twins have been on a roll lately, winning 6 of their last 7 games and averaging 6.43 runs per game during that stretch. They’re also one of the better-hitting teams against left-handed pitching, posting MLB’s ninth-highest wRC+ (108) versus southpaws.

Minnesota will need to score plenty of runs in this one, as Randy Dobnak will likely give up his fair share as well. Dobnak enters play on Friday with a 5.75 ERA and has been hit hard this year, allowing 21 hits (including 4 home runs) in 20 1/3 innings.

Based on the pitching matchup, I fully expect both teams to score at least 4-5 runs in this game. If that happens, we’ve got an automatic winner in our hands.


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