Here’s your May 25 MLB Prop Bets for 5/25/21 MLB Prop bets. All odds for May 25 MLB Prop picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
We’re back for another week of MLB bets. Currently, I’m 11-5 with my best bets on The Game Day. I’ll look to maintain that percentage and record going into this week.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are tips for my 5/25/21 MLB Prop bets.
- Overall: 11-5
- Team Totals: 5-3
- First 5 IP Bets: 4-1
- Moneylines: 2-1
May 25 MLB Prop Bets
Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET)
- Indians @ Tigers 5/25/21 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Aaron Civale (CLE) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (DET)
Indians to win (-140)
Wager: 1.40 units
When taking a moneyline wager, the first thing you want to look at is a pitcher’s record. A starting pitcher’s record isn’t always a direct reflection on the starting pitcher, but it’s more often a reflection on how the bullpen finishes games out for that starting pitcher.
Aaron Civale will take the hill for the Indians with a 6-1 record and a 3.30 ERA. In his first 10 starts of the season, the Indians have lost just two games with Civale on the mound.
Civale has given up a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .314 to lefties and has allowed a little bit of power from those lefties as well. He will pitch to contact and not worry so much about striking batters out. Civale is only striking out 20.1 percent of batters on the year but has limited walks to 6.8 percent on the year, which is a solid, above average, number.
He’s also getting nearly 50 percent of grounders and will take on a Tigers lineup that has struggled to hit the ball on a consistent basis. Only Akil Baddoo and Jake Rogers have hit righties with consistency this year. Those two batters will project to be the eighth and ninth batters in the lineup. That shows you just how much confidence the Tigers have with their lineup right now.
Every batter in the projected lineup, outside of Harold Castro is striking out 22 percent of the time or more against righties. Civale isn’t the best strikeout pitcher in the league but he’s capable of striking out lefties at a solid clip.
In the last 30 days, Civale has fanned 25.9 percent of lefties and he’ll face Castro, Robbie Grossman, Nomar Mazara, Willi Castro and Baddoo. All of those mentioned outside of Castro are striking out at a high rate and give reason to believe that Civale can get by this Tigers order with some strikeouts.
On the other hand, the Tigers will send out Tarik Skubal, who has a 1-6 record with a 5.45 ERA. He’s been better in May compared to April but things are still not looking good. He’s allowed a .370 wOBA to lefties and a .385 wOBA to righties. Power numbers are high on both sides but righties have absolutely smacked Skubal around with 11 home runs and 14 walks.
Meanwhile, lefties are hitting Skubal with a .300 average but only have one home run and five extra-base hits in 40 at-bats.
The Indians lineup isn’t going to light up the scoreboard on a night-to-night basis but Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez and Harold Ramirez have shown off some power recently against lefties. This lineup has done a terrific job limiting strikeouts and working walks. Plus, once Skubal is out of the game, the pitching only gets worse behind a Detroit Tigers bullpen that has the highest ERA in the league this season.
I love the Indians in this spot.
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Cardinals @ White Sox 5/25/21 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Jack Flaherty (STL) vs. RHP Lucas Giolito (CWS)
Cardinals +0.5 in the first five innings (-130)
Wager: 1.30 units (win would pay 1 unit)
Jack Flaherty is 8-0 in nine starts this season with a 2.53 ERA. Not only has Flaherty been given run support, he’s also limited opponents from scoring runs. The right-hander has kept power numbers down against both sides of the plate and has really looked solid against right-handed batters, striking out 32.4 percent of righties this season.
Flaherty struggled in his first start of the season, allowing six runs in 4.1 innings pitched against the Reds. While he didn’t get the win, the Cardinals ended up winning that game 11-6. Since then, Flaherty has gone at least five innings and has put together seven quality starts of those eight starts.
Granted, these starts have come against Miami, Washington, Pittsburgh, Colorado, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati, but the White Sox stats are only inflated due to facing left-handed pitching. They haven’t been terrific against righties to begin with.
This season, only Yasmani Grandal has shown off some power against righties this season. Meanwhile, Yermin Mercedes and Yoan Moncada have found ways to get on base. But the reality is, eight batters in this projected White Sox lineup strike out 20 percent of the time or more against righties. At least half of the lineup will include right-handed batters, an area that Flaherty excels in against righties.
On the flip side, Lucas Giolito will take the hill against the Cardinals. Last year, Giolito faced the Cardinals in a seven-inning double-header game and allowed six hits, four earned runs and two walks along with five strikeouts in the loss. The Cardinals ended up winning that game, 5-1 in seven innings after the Cardinals scored four runs in the top of the first inning.
This Cardinals lineup hasn’t faced Giolito much but when they have, they’ve found success. Currently, this season, Giolito is allowing a wOBA of .340 to righties and lots of power to righties on top of that. Righties are hitting .245 with an on-base percentage of .290. He’s allowed seven home runs and 15 runs batted in against righties in 94 at-bats.
The best way to beat Giolito is finding power bats, from the right side, that smack right-handed pitching. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Yadi Molina all have power, as righties, against righties. Giolito is also walking lefties at 17.9 percent in the last 30 days.
Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Matt Carpenter and Justin Williams are all capable of working out walks or limiting strikeouts against righties.
I’ll ride the hot hand with Flaherty and the offense that continues to produce behind him in this 5/25/21 MLB Prop.
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