Michael Rathburn with your May 19 K MLB Prop Bet Tips for 5/19/21 MLB Prop Bets. All odds were obtained from PointsBet.
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May 19 MLB K Prop Bet Tips
Wade Miley, Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants (6:40 p.m. ET)
Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
Wager: 1 unit
It is a lot easier to look at the top pitchers against the weaker teams and play over on the strikeout prop. But when you have a limited amount of options, you have to go digging. I was looking at Kevin Gausman and Corbin Burnes tonight for over, but I do not like either spot for those pitchers.
I decided to look at the bottom of the board to find some value and landed on Wade Miley.
The Giants are a different team on the road vs. home. They strike out 10.5 times per game vs. 8.7 at home. When looking at Miley’s three home starts he has struck out 14 batters in 16 innings. He has only had one bad outing this year and that was at Coors. If you extract the Coors start his season totals are 36 innings, 27 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.00 ERA, and 0.75 WHIP. Outside of Buster Posey, I don’t see any serious threats in this lineup. BUT, they do draw a very high walk rate against left-handed pitchers at a 13.7% clip. On the flip side, they walk less on the road 3.7 vs. 4.4 per game.
The Giants end up around 1.18 strikeouts per inning on the road this year and Miley is averaging .88 per inning in his three home starts. That averages out to around 1 strikeout per inning so if he can last 5 innings he should be able to go over the 4.5 k prop.
Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (7:45 p.m. ET)
Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Wager: 1 unit
Flaherty comes in as a huge home favorite at -225 against Trevor Cahill. The projected starting lineup for the Pirates is just 11 for 59 against Flaherty. He faced the Pirates on May 1 and struck out 9 in 6 innings. Flaherty has been able to cut down on the walks and home runs allowed this year and I will say his strength of schedule has not been the toughest. But that will not be a factor against the lowly Pirates. I have been betting against the Pirates for most of May and will continue to do so.
The Pirates are dead last in home runs over the last 14 and 7 days with a 25% k rate and 5% walk rate. They are 10-19-1 to the under in their last 30 and 5-13 straight up in their last 18. This is one of the worst teams in baseball and will start to sell off some pieces very soon.
The Pirates average 8.6 strikeouts per 9 innings and it is up to 8.8 over the last month which is just under 1 per inning. Flaherty needs to go 7 innings tonight to hit this strikeout prop. I think we get some line value here on Flaherty because he has only gone over 6.5 strikeouts once this year and it was against these same Pirates.
After reading May 19 K Prop Bet Tips and 5/19/21 MLB K Prop Bets, make your MLB bets for May 19.