Here’s your May 12 MLB Bet Pick for 5/12/21 MLB Bets. All odds for May 12 MLB Picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
The Red Sox couldn’t get it done last night with two runners on and one out in the 9th down one. Those are the types of games that infuriate me. You have no idea. Anyway, we’re still up overall. It’s a long season. Let’s keep pushing.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are tips for my 5/12/21 MLB Bets.
- Overall: 4-2
- Team Totals: 2-1
- First 5 IP Bets: 1-0
- Moneylines: 1-1
May 12 MLB Bet Tips
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates (12:35 p.m. ET)
- Reds @ Pirates 5/12/21 Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Sonny Gray (CIN) vs. RHP Trevor Cahil (PIT)
Reds Over 3.5 Team Total (-145)
Wager: 1.45 units (win would pay 1 unit)
We’ve got an early game on the slate for today. The Reds have not been the best offense on the road. I’m fully aware, however, they’re going up against Trevor Cahill who currently has a 6.75 ERA on the season.
Cahill already faced the Reds once this season and allowed nine hits and seven runs in four innings on the road, where he struck out four and allowed two home runs. The Reds ended up winning that game 14-1 and easily hit their team total going up against Cahill.
Lefties are smacking Cahill around this season as they’re hitting a .370 average and have an on base percentage of .414. The Reds will have four powerful lefties in the lineup that can do damage against Cahill including Jesse Winker, Mike Moustakas, Tyler Naquin and Tucker Barnhart.
But even righties like Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez have shown pop against righties this season, and with Cahill struggling to get strikeouts, balls will be in play and could easily go over the yard for this group.
Take the over 3.5 team total via BetMGM. They’ve got nine innings to get four runs against Cahill and the Pirates bullpen.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET)
- Phillies @ Nationals 5/12/21 Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. LHP Jon Lester (WAS)
Phillies First 5 Innings (-125)
Wager: 1.25 units (win would pay 1 unit)
The Phillies will send out Zack Wheeler who is coming off an impressive performance in his last start. Wheeler went nine innings and shut out the Brewers, allowing just three hits and no runs with eight strikeouts and no walks.
He was as dominant as you’ll see a pitcher this season, despite not getting a no-hitter.
Wheeler has struggled multiple times this season. But two of those three poor performances came against the Mets, a team he’s always struggled to face since leaving New York for Philadelphia a couple of years ago.
He’s held it down this year, holding righties to a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .277. Lefties have a wOBA of .230 and Wheeler really hasn’t allowed many extra-base hits this season.
The Nationals have Juan Soto back in the lineup and he’s a huge piece for that lineup as a left-handed hitter. But outside of Soto, this lineup does not look great against righties for the Nationals. Only Trea Turner, Soto, and Josh Harrison are getting on base at a high rate against righties.
Wheeler is also a ground ball pitcher and the Nationals are putting the ball on the ground 44.8 percent of the time against righties this season.
To make matters worse for the Nationals, Juan Soto, that big bat I was talking about earlier, is 4-21 against Wheeler which is a .190 batting average. So much for that…
On the other hand, the Phillies will take on Jon Lester, who will make his third start for the Nationals. He allowed three runs on four hits in five innings against the Braves in his last start. Lester has now thrown 10 innings and allowed nine hits, three runs and four walks while striking out six.
But things could’ve been much worse for Lester in those two games. Righties currently have an on-base percentage of .343 and have three extra-base hits in 32 at-bats. The veteran lefty is not getting a high amount of strikeouts and walks are high with four through 10 innings.
While the Nationals returned Juan Soto, the Phillies return Jean Segura. Segura has been an excellent addition to this Phillies team since returning back to action and is getting on base at a high rate against lefties. Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm, and Rhys Hoskins all have quality numbers against left-handed pitching so far this season with a wOBA of above .350 each.
While Bryce Harper doesn’t particularly dominate lefties as a left-handed batter, Harper is still 4-13 against Lester with a home run and two walks. that’s a .308 average against Lester, which is above what he usually brings to the table against lefties.
With all of that said, I expect Wheeler to shut down the Nationals and for the Phillies to score some runs off Lester early in this one.
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