Michael Rathburn with your May 12 K Prop Bet Tips for 5/12/21 MLB Prop Bets. All odds courtesy of PointsBet.
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May 12 K Prop Bet Tips
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET)
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Wager: 1 unit
Wheeler is coming off a dominant shutout against the Milwaukee Brewers in which he allowed just 3 hits and 0 walks while striking out 8. In 7 starts this year, he’s tallied at least 6 Ks in every outing except one, which happened over a month ago. He’s currently averaging 7 strikeouts per start, which makes him a good bet to hit the over here.
The Nationals are not a strikeout-heavy team against right-handed pitchers, however, and that is definitely reflected in the prop number at 5.5. Normally, Wheeler would have been at least 6.5 – 7.5, but the Nats have MLB’s fifth-lowest K rate vs. righties at 22%. Wheeler has been averaging close to 7 innings per start, though, so if he goes deep again he’ll have a good chance to rack up some punchouts.
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (7:20 p.m. ET)
Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Wager: 1 unit
This will be Fried’s second start since returning from his IL stint, and that could be a factor in this game against the Blue Jays. While he pitched well against the Nationals last week, he only went 5 innings and threw 72 pitches. The Braves may cap his innings again, especially since he hasn’t completed more than 5 frames in any of his 4 outings this year, which will suppress his strikeout total as well.
Fried has exceeded 6.5 strikeouts only once this year, and it was all the way back on Opening Day. Toronto doesn’t whiff a ton against lefties either, ranking in the middle of the pack with a 23% K rate vs. southpaws.
There’s always a concern when going under on a National League pitcher because they usually face the pitcher or a pinch-hitter multiple times, but Fried’s unlikely to last more than 5 or 6 innings. He’ll also probably be matched up against 7 strong right-handed batters, and his numbers against righties this year are atrocious (10.50 ERA, 2.42 WHIP, .431 BAA).
After reading May 12 K Prop Bet Tips and 5/12/21 MLB Player Prop Bets, make your MLB bets for May 12.