Here’s your May 11 MLB Bet Pick for 5/11/21 MLB Bets. All odds for May 11 MLB Picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
If you’ve tailed my first two articles, you’d have a record of 3-1 and in the green. That’s what I’m here for! It’s always good to start off hot when writing articles for a new company!
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are tips for my 5/11/21 MLB Bets.
- Overall: 3-1
- Team Totals: 1-1
- First 5 IP Bets: 1-0
- Moneylines: 1-0
May 11 MLB Bet Tips
Texas Rangers @ San Francisco Giants (3:45 p.m. ET)
- Rangers @ Giants Matchup
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Jordan Lyles (TEX) vs. RHP Logan Webb (SF)
Giants Over 3.5 Runs Scored (-160)
Wager: 1.24 units (win would pay 1 unit)
I’ve enjoyed having day games on a random Tuesday afternoon. But that’s not why I bet this game. It caught my eye due to the fact that Jordan Lyles is taking the mound for the Rangers.
Lyles has gone 1-2 in seven starts this season while allowing 2.45 home runs per nine innings and a batting average of balls in play of .343. That means over 34 percent of balls hit in play are becoming base hits, which is a high number for that stat.
On top of that, Lyles is inducing under 30 percent of groundballs and leaving under 70 percent of runners on base.
So far this season, Lyles has only reached six innings pitched once this season and in that outing, he still allowed three runs on five hits, including a home run.
Lyles has started seven games this season and has allowed nine home runs on the year. He’s literally allowing at least one home run per start and sometimes will give up multiple long balls. In 33 innings, he’s allowed 44 hits and 26 runs along with 10 walks and 30 strikeouts.
The Giants lineup isn’t confirmed just yet but they’ll likely bat Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford all stacked up in the middle of the order. Already this year, Yastrzemski, Posey, Belt and Crawford have smacked righties, each hitting a solid amount of extra base hits against righties while also finding a way on base at solid rate as well.
Longoria has struggled against righties so far this season, but he hasn’t against Lyles. Against Lyles, in 12 plate appearances, he’s knocked four base hits with three of them for extra bases. Posey also has solid numbers with four extra base hits of the five he’s hit against Lyles in 18 at-bats.
With the way Lyles has struggled this season against both righties and lefties, the Giants should be able to reach five or more runs in this game. With our bet, if the Giants finish with four runs, it’ll be a push and the bet will be voided.
Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)
- Athletics @ Red Sox Matchup
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Chris Bassitt (OAK) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (BOS)
Red Sox (-130)
Wager: 1.25 units (win would pay 1 unit)
On paper, we’ve got a solid pitching matchup between Chris Bassitt and Nathan Eovaldi. Both pitchers have gone about 40 innings on the year and have limited home runs really well.
Bassitt is coming off a seven-inning performance, where he allowed two runs and six hits with seven strikeouts and no walks, only to watch his team lose 9-4. The Oakland right-hander has now allowed two or more runs in every start this season. He’s allowed two runs in his last five starts, going, on average, six innings per game.
Currently, Bassitt’s strikeouts are really high. He’s fanned 24 batters in his last three starts and has seemed to really figure out how to put away batters this season. However, Bassitt has gotten into trouble against left-handed batters, giving up a solid amount of extra base hits this season. Lefties aren’t hitting a high amount of ground balls, which means lefties have been able to elevate Bassitt’s pitches a bit to get into the outfield and also into gaps or the corner.
The big four for the Red Sox will likely be the four batters to make some noise and score those two or more runs against Bassitt.
On the other hand, Eovaldi has done a terrific job limiting walks this season for the Red Sox, allowing 4.8 percent of walks this season. The Athletics walk 11.1 percent of the time against righties. That will be a little shock to the Athletics, who won’t be able to work counts and get on base at a high rate against Eovaldi without hitting the ball.
The A’s have just two batters consistently getting on base against righties this season. That’s Mark Canha and Matt Olson, who both walk at least 12 percent of the time against righties.
Eovaldi struggled in his last outing, at home, against the Tigers, allowing six runs on seven hits with five strikeouts and a walk. But he’s never allowed a home run and he’s walked two or less batters in all but one start this season.
As long as Eovaldi limits walks, just like he’s done this season, the Red Sox should be able to push away late in this game, at home in the battle between two of the best teams in the league.
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