Here’s your May 7 MLB Bet Pick for 5/7/21 MLB Bets. All odds for May 7 MLB Picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
The first day giving out plays for The Game Day was successful. Sure, I went 1-1, but we did profit. Anyway, I’ve been sports betting for years via my analytical background. I’m a numbers guy, and that certainly helps when betting baseball. It’s mono-y-mono at the plate.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz
- Team Totals: 0-1
- First Five IP Bets: 1-0
May 7 MLB Bet Tips
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
Probable Pitchers: RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) vs. LHP David Peterson (NYM)
New York Mets (-130)
Wager: 1.3 units (win would pay 1 unit)
If you’re looking at public money, you might not like this bet. Of course the public is going to be on Zac Gallen against the New York Mets. Gallen finished the 2020 season with a 2.75 ERA in 12 games started, and there was talk during the season that he could potentially win the Cy Young. This season, more bettors had Gallen as a Cy Young candidate and took those futures.
Those are all fair decisions. But when it comes down to this game, the Mets have the edge.
Gallen allowed six hits and four runs against the Rockies in four innings in his last start on May 1 while walking two and striking out seven. Gallen has only finished six innings once this season in four starts, and that was against the Braves during a double-header. If you remember, the Braves offense was just absolutely lost that day because Madison Bumgarner, of all people, no-hit the Braves in the second game of the no-hitter following Gallen’s one-hit performance.
If you take a look at the Diamondbacks bullpen, they haven’t been great. They’re allowing plenty of power, getting low strikeouts, and allowing 33.8% hard contact as a unit.
On the other hand, David Peterson has had three tremendous starts this season compared to two poor ones. He’s coming off a five-inning start against the Phillies where he allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out eight and allowing a single home run.
In his last 11 innings, he’s allowed eight hits with 11 strikeouts and three earned runs. Now he’ll go up against a lineup in the Diamondbacks that don’t really hit the ball hard against lefties. Arizona will likely have six righties in their lineup, and Peterson allows a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of just .292 on the season. Sure, the power numbers are a bit high against righties, but he’s also striking out 27.6% of right-handed batters.
First baseman Christian Walker strikes out 42.9% of the time against lefties, while third baseman Wyatt Mathisen walks back to the dugout 36.4% of the time against lefties.
Gallen has struggled a bit against left-handed batters, allowing a .334 wOBA to lefties. He’s walking batters 11.2% of the time and the Mets have shown some patience at the plate recently, walking in a couple of runs yesterday to take the lead.
With Gallen struggling to go deep in games and the Diamondbacks bullpen looking bottom tier, the Mets could run away with this game late even if they don’t have the lead early.
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET)
Probable Pitchers: RHP Matt Shoemaker (MIN) vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (DET)
Twins Over 4.5 Runs Scored (-115)
Wager: 1.15 units (win would pay 1 unit)
The Twins have started the season 11-19, and nobody saw this coming. On top of that, Byron Buxton has a strained hip and won’t be playing in this game. Buxton was basically the one player keeping the Twins from completely falling apart.
But now they’ll travel on the road to Detroit to hit against Tarik Skubal and the Tigers bullpen.
They’ll have a full nine at-bats in this game as the road team and will face Skubal, who has a 6.14 ERA and 0-4 for the season. Skubal has really struggled against righties this season, allowing a wOBA of .433 and tons of power from righties as a left-handed pitcher.
Righties have eight home runs in 68 at-bats with 19 hits and 14 runs batted in. On top of that, righties have walked 10 times and have a hit-by-pitch and just 10 strikeouts. Skubal is allowing an on-base percentage of .375 and an OPS of 1.081.
Righties are slugging against Skubal this season. Although Buxton won’t be in the lineup, the Twins will have Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Garlick, Jose Polanco, and Miguel Sano, who all have plenty of power against lefties as right-handed batters.
But even if Skubal pitches well and allows two runs over five innings, the Twins will get to face a Tigers bullpen that has been, by far, the worst bullpen in the majors. That bullpen has an ERA of 6.61 and has a WHIP of .172 with 25 home runs allowed.
The Twins should be able to handle Skubal and the bullpen to score five runs against the Tigers.
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