Michael Rathburn debuts with your May 7 K Prop Bet Tips for 5/7/21 MLB Prop Bets. All odds were obtained from PointsBet.
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May 7 K Prop Bet Tips
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Wager: 2.5 units
I have a process when I look at betting strikeout props. The first step is to gather all the data I need, which is the prop, projected strikeouts, strikeouts per game, opponent strikeout rank, money line, total, AL or NL park. I also look to see if there are any hitters that are out or coming back which will influence the outcome.
Once I gather all the data, then I dig into the pitchers’ log to see how many times did they go over/under the posted prop and I give each pitcher a rating.
My No. 1-rated strikeout prop today was Zac Gallen by a significant margin.
The Mets are 25th in strikeout percentage this year, yet the prop is 5.5, and Gallen averages 6.8 per game. We also get the game in New York, which is more of a pitchers’ park.
Gallen has posted at least 6 strikeouts in all four starts this year, and going back to 2020, he did in 11 out of 12 starts (92%). Gallen is a slight underdog, but I am not sure why. The Diamondbacks and Mets are pretty much even on the year so far with both teams around .500.
One of the things to consider, especially when it is two National League teams, is if the game is close in the sixth inning will your pitcher get pulled placing your prop at risk? In this instance, I think even if Gallen goes 6 innings, he will already be at 6 strikeouts.
Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Wager: 2.5 units
OK, so look at my prop for over on Gallen, then look at Gomber’s prop — which is exactly the same 5.5. (?!)
Head-scratcher for me even with Gomber working away from Coors Field. When I rank all of the starting pitchers today, Gomber is dead-last. I think his K prop should be 4.5, and the money might push it there.
The Cardinals are 18th in strikeout rate which is around the middle of the pack so no real edge either way. But Gomber (+183) is a huge underdog against Jack Flaherty so the chances of him lasting more than 5 innings are slim.
Gomber only averages 4.5 strikeouts per game and his projection is about the same. The only bat out for the Cardinals is Yadier Molina, so no edge there either. He has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in 2 out of 6 starts (33%), but context is king. He got the COVID-19-impacted Astros lineup and the beat-up Dodgers in LA which is a pitchers’ park.
The problem is Gomber’s walk rate which is 6.21 per 9 innings. He just puts too many runners on base which makes it tough to go deep into games.
After reading May 7 K Prop Bet Tips and 5/7/21 MLB Player Prop Bets, make your MLB bets for May 7.