May 7 K Prop Bet Tips: Zac Gallen & Austin Gomber

Michael Rathburn debuts with your May 7 K Prop Bet Tips for 5/7/21 MLB Prop Bets. All odds were obtained from PointsBet.


Our friends at PointsBet are offering new customers 2 Risk-Free Bets for up to $2,000. Sign up today!


May 7 K Prop Bet Tips

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (7:10 p.m. ET)

Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Wager: 2.5 units 

Player Prop

-150

Zac Gallen To Strike Out 6 Or More Mets (ARI @ NYM, May 7)

ARI @ NYM | 05/07, 7:10 PM ET

PointsBet Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet 2 Risk-Free Bets up to $2,000
Pointsbet Logo

Bet $20, Payout $33

I have a process when I look at betting strikeout props. The first step is to gather all the data I need, which is the prop, projected strikeouts, strikeouts per game, opponent strikeout rank, money line, total, AL or NL park. I also look to see if there are any hitters that are out or coming back which will influence the outcome.

Once I gather all the data, then I dig into the pitchers’ log to see how many times did they go over/under the posted prop and I give each pitcher a rating.

My No. 1-rated strikeout prop today was Zac Gallen by a significant margin.

The Mets are 25th in strikeout percentage this year, yet the prop is 5.5, and Gallen averages 6.8 per game. We also get the game in New York, which is more of a pitchers’ park.

Gallen has posted at least 6 strikeouts in all four starts this year, and going back to 2020, he did in 11 out of 12 starts (92%). Gallen is a slight underdog, but I am not sure why. The Diamondbacks and Mets are pretty much even on the year so far with both teams around .500.

One of the things to consider, especially when it is two National League teams, is if the game is close in the sixth inning will your pitcher get pulled placing your prop at risk? In this instance, I think even if Gallen goes 6 innings, he will already be at 6 strikeouts.


Austin Gomber, Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals

Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Wager: 2.5 units

Player Prop

-150

Austin Gomber To Strike Out 5 Or Fewer Cardinals (COL @ STL, May 7)

COL @ STL | 05/07, 8:15 PM ET

PointsBet Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet 2 Risk-Free Bets up to $2,000
Pointsbet Logo

Bet $20, Payout $33

OK, so look at my prop for over on Gallen, then look at Gomber’s prop — which is exactly the same 5.5. (?!)

Head-scratcher for me even with Gomber working away from Coors Field. When I rank all of the starting pitchers today, Gomber is dead-last. I think his K prop should be 4.5, and the money might push it there.

The Cardinals are 18th in strikeout rate which is around the middle of the pack so no real edge either way. But Gomber (+183) is a huge underdog against Jack Flaherty so the chances of him lasting more than 5 innings are slim.

Gomber only averages 4.5 strikeouts per game and his projection is about the same. The only bat out for the Cardinals is Yadier Molina, so no edge there either.  He has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in 2 out of 6 starts (33%), but context is king. He got the COVID-19-impacted Astros lineup and the beat-up Dodgers in LA which is a pitchers’ park.

The problem is Gomber’s walk rate which is 6.21 per 9 innings. He just puts too many runners on base which makes it tough to go deep into games.


After reading May 7 K Prop Bet Tips and 5/7/21 MLB Player Prop Bets, make your MLB bets for May 7.

Top promotions

Welcome offer Caesars Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,500 FREE

5 stars
Welcome offer BetMGM Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,000 Risk-Free

5 stars
Welcome offer BetRivers Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Free

5 stars
Welcome offer Betway Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Risk Free Bet

5 stars

Related articles

Promotions

Welcome offer Caesars Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,500 FREE

5 stars
Welcome offer BetMGM Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,000 Risk-Free

5 stars
Welcome offer BetRivers Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Free

5 stars
Welcome offer Betway Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Risk Free Bet

5 stars

Schedule & Odds

Top Offers

NBA Betting News

  • Celtics +300 to win NBA Title

    The Boston Celtics are +300 to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The Celtics are +300 ahead of their home date with the Warriors for Game 6. We will see a considerable odds shift if the Celtics can win Game 6 on their homecourt. Boston was +310 after Game 5.

  • Celtics vs. Warriors over/under listed at 210

    The over/under for Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors is listed at 210, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The total for this contest sits at 210, down from the 210.5 it opened at. 60 percent of the public action has come on the over.

  • Warriors -400 to win NBA Championship

    The Golden State Warriors are -400 to win the NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    Golden State now sits at a prohibitive -400 to win the NBA Championship. For comparison, Stephen Curry MVP is -360. Andrew Wiggins, the dark horse to steal the award with a big close-out game, sits at +2000.

  • Celtics +310 to win NBA Championship

    The Boston Celtics are +310 to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The Celtics peaked as high as high as -230 prior to Game 3 and now sit at an attractive +310. Boston entered the season at +4000. The odds could swing wildly again if Boston wins Game 6.

  • Warriors vs. Celtics over/under listed at 210.5

    The over/under for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics is listed at 210.5, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The total for this contest sits at 210.5, down from the 212.5 it opened at. 72 percent of the public action has come on the over.