April 20 MLB Bet Picks: UNDERs in Orioles @ Marlins & Brewers @ Padres

Here’s your April 20 MLB Bet Picks for 4/20/21 MLB Bets. All odds were obtained from bet365.

I’ve been off to an awful start in betting on MLB, but I’m confident that with some more discipline, I can turn it around. It’s a long season, so there’s plenty of time to get back on track.

As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card on my Twitter page @FAmmiranteTFJ.

  • Season: 39-62-1 (-27.4 units)
  • Sides: 16-18 (-1.3 units)
  • Game Totals: 7-17-1 (-11.95 units)
  • Team Totals: 1-6 (-6.15 units)
  • Props: 14-15 (-3.7 units)

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April 20 MLB Bet Tips

Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: RHP Matt Harvey (BAL) vs. RHP Nick Neidert (MIA)

UNDER 8.5 Total Runs Scored (-115)

Wager: 1.15 units (win would pay 1 unit)

over-under

-115

Baltimore Orioles @ Miami Marlins: Under 8.5 Total Runs Scored

BAL @ MIA | 04/20, 5:40 PM

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Bet $20, Payout $37

The UNDER is 7-2 in Orioles away games and 5-3-1 in Marlins home games this season. The Orioles have struggled against righties this season, posting a 74 wRC+ (T-28th), .141 ISO (20th), and 28.3 K% (28th). The Marlins haven’t fared much better against righties, putting up an 84 wRC+ (22nd), .112 ISO (29th), and 25.4 K% (16th).

Matt Harvey has a 5.02 ERA, but two of his three starts have been at Camden Yards and the other was at Fenway Park. These are two of the biggest hitter’s parks in baseball. He’ll now face the Marlins at a pitcher’s park at Marlins Stadium. Harvey has put up a solid 14.1 K-BB% so far this season.

Nick Neidert has struggled with control with an ugly 22.5% walk rate in nine innings, but he’s a rookie who the Orioles have never seen before. His two starts against the Braves and Mets each came on the road, so he’ll have the benefit of pitching in Marlins Stadium today.


Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres, 10:10 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers: RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. RHP Chris Paddack (SD)

UNDER 7 Total Runs Scored (-120)

Wager: 1.2 units (win would pay 1 unit)

over-under

-120

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres: Under 7 Total Runs Scored

MIL @ SD | 04/19, 9:10 PM

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Bet $20, Payout $37

The UNDER is 9-2 in Padres home games and 5-2 in Brewers away games this season. The Brewers haven’t been good against RHP, putting up a 76 wRC+ (26th), .141 ISO (T-19th), and 26.8 K% (21st). The Padres have cold bats right now, scoring a combined six runs in their last three games.

Corbin Burnes has looked like the best pitcher in baseball this season, putting up an 0.49 ERA (1.18 xFIP) and 48.4% strikeout rate. He has yet to issue a walk this season. The UNDER is 3-0 in Burnes’ starts this year.

Chris Paddack has had a poor start to the season, but he has a chance to get things back on track against a Brewers offense that struggles against righties. The Padres bullpen can also help this stay under, as they’ve been great this year: 2.47 ERA (3rd), 3.11 xFIP (1st), and 24.0 K-BB% (2nd).


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