Dolphins Raiders Bet Tips for Week 16
The Miami Dolphins visit the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium on Saturday at 8:15 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Dolphins Raiders Bet Tips. Odds and lines for Dolphins-Raiders picks are from PointsBet, current as of Tuesday at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
Dolphins Raiders Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Dolphins-Raiders Picks
- Against The Spread: Dolphins -2.5 (-121)/Raiders +2.5 (+100)
- Moneyline: Dolphins (-150)/Raiders (+130)
- Total: 47.5 — Over 47.5 (-115)/Under 47.5 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 25, Raiders 22.5
This game features two teams battling for the playoffs in the AFC. While the Dolphins are currently holding the No. 7 seed, they can not afford losses with the Ravens (9-5) and Raiders (7-7) at the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds respectively not too far behind.
The Raiders are 1-4 in their past five games, losers of two straight. Despite their recent slide, the Raiders are still hanging on to postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have lost two of their past five games but managed to avoid two straight defeats with last week’s win over New England
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Dolphins-Raiders Key Injuries
Although the Dolphins are all sorts of banged up along their offensive skill position players, they keep winning. This makes this Dolphins-Raiders Picks preview a bit tricky.
RB Myles Gaskin is on the reserve/ COVID list while DeVante Parker (hamstring), Jakeem Grant (hamstring), and Mike Gesicki (shoulder) all missed last week’s win over the Patriots. However, they all have a shot to return and play on Saturday against the Raiders.
If you paid attention to practice reports last week, it looked like Parker and Gesicki were trending in the right direction before ultimately being designated inactive. Because they were close last week, they have a realistic chance against the Raiders. Meanwhile, Gaskin is entirely up in the air while Grant is the outlier and is on the wrong side of an active call.
Raiders QB Derek Carr suffered a groin injury early in last week’s loss to the Chargers and did not return to the game. While Las Vegas HC Jon Gruden told the press that he believes the starting quarterback avoided a significant tear, the injury is still viewed as serious, putting Carr’s Week 16 playing status in real question.
If Carr sits, Marcus Mariota will draw this first NFL start since Ryan Tannehill ran away with the job in Tennessee back in 2019. While the Raiders lost last week, Mariota lit a spark within the offense.
Mariota ended Week 15 completing 17-of-28 passes for 226 yards, one touchdown, and an interception while adding nine carries for 88 yards and another score on the ground.
Mariota presents a mobile option for the Raiders, which could help them to exploit a vastly talented Miami defense over Carr, your prototypical pocket passer. The Dolphins pass-rush is 10th in the NFL in sacks (37).
Dolphins-Raiders Players to Watch
Dolphins RB/ WR Lynn Bowden Jr. has come alive. The hybrid rookie, who was traded to the Dolphins by the Raiders earlier in the year, has made an impact in his first three games playing significant snaps.
While in Week 13, his first game, Bowden caught all four of his targets for 41 yards, he would follow that up with two straight outings with 7+ targets, 6+ receptions, and 37+ yards, topping out at a 7/82/0 line on nine targets in Week 14. Bowden has also had a carry in all of those games as well, but they all went for fewer than 11 yards.
Even if the Dolphins get healthier on offense, Bowden has shown that he is a playmaker and a difference-maker. He will be involved moving forward. Bowden gets a Raiders defense allowing the eighth-most total yards (385.4) in 2020.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs must get going to give the Raiders a shot. Las Vegas cannot be one-dimensional, especially facing a defense like Miami’s.
Since Week 10 in which Jacobs rushed for 112 yards and a pair of scores on 21 carries, the second-year rusher has rushed for fewer than 76 yards in each of his past four games, logging only two scores in that period.
While Jacobs went for 76 yards and a score on his 26 carries last week, he rushed for fewer than 55 yards in the previous three games.
In Saturday night’s Week 15 matchup, Jacobs will get a Dolphins defense allowing the 14th most rushing yards per game (120.0). While you can get yards on the Dolphins, they are only giving up the third-fewest touchdowns on the ground to enemy backs (8).
Dolphins-Raiders Weather Report
The weather at Allegiant Stadium will not impact the outcome of the game as it is a dome.
Dolphins-Raiders Picks & Best Bet
BEST BET: Dolphins (-150)
Let’s face it, the Dolphins are the superior team. Since the Raiders opened the year 6-3, they have dropped four of their past five games. Their defense has collapsed.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 8-2 in their past 10 games. They are on an absolute role, mostly because of their defense. But recently, including last week’s win over the Patriots in which he had nothing to throw to, Tua Tagovailoa is making an impact in Maimi’s wins.
This is another game in which the biggest difference will be the pass rush. While the Dolphins are getting to the quarterback and sacking him the 10th most times in the NFL (37), the Raiders are the polar opposite. The Raiders are sacking the quarterback at the second-worst rate in the NFL, only getting home 16 times.
If the Raiders can’t get to Tagovailoa, the rookie will have his way with their poor defense in all phases.
Turnovers will also play a role. The Dolphins have the second-best turnover differential in the NFL (+10) while the Raiders have the fifth-worst (-6).
The Dolphins are 7-1 straight up in their past eight meetings with the Raiders.
CONSIDER: Over 47.5 (-115)
While this is a hard game to project because of the two teams featured, the over is in play for Week 16’s Dolphins-Raiders matchup. While the Dolphins have the No. 1 defense in points allowed per game (18.4), the Raiders’ offense is scoring the 11th most PPG (26.9).
Meanwhile, the Dolphins offense is scoring the 16th most PPG (25.1) while the Las Vegas defense is surrendering the fourth-most PPG (30.1).
The Under is 6-4 in the Dolphins’ past 10 games and 4-1 in their past five.
However, in that time period, the Dolphins have played teams that include the Jets (twice), the Broncos, Bengals, Rams, and Patriots. Of course, those games went Under considering those offenses. And I don’t want to hear a peep about me sticking the Rams’ offense in the conversation with those other clubs, they are that hot and cold, or Jared Goff is that hot and cold. Either way, there they are.
In the four games in which Dolphins games went Over in their past 10, their foes were the Chiefs, Chargers, Cardinals, and the 49ers. All better offenses with the exception of the 49ers. In that game, the Dolphins hung 43 points on the 49ers, nearly hitting the over by themselves.
The Raiders are one of the best Over teams in the NFL. The Over is 7-3 in their past 10 games and four of their past five, including three straight.
This Raiders offense can go with any defense. I especially like them to score points if Marcus Mariota draws the start. His mobility can evade the Dolphins’ pass rush and extend plays until receivers get open. He can also take off as he did last week for 88 yards and a score on nine attempts.
The Over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings between the Dolphins and Raiders, hitting in six straight.
CONSIDER: Dolphins -2.5 (-121)
For slightly better odds than the Dolphins Moneyline, you can take them giving the 2.5 points.
The Dolphins are 5-2-1 in their past eight meetings with the Raiders.
The Dolphins have covered the spread in nine of their past 10 games, including four straight.
The Raiders are 0-4 against the spread in their past four games.
Anthony Cervino is 55-44-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
Prepare Week 16 betting tips and plan
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