Best NBA Win Total Bets for the 2020-2021 season: For the first time since the lock-out shortened 2011-2012 season, the NBA’s season-long win totals are adjusted for a year with fewer than 82 games. This forces us to adjust our strategy to predict NBA team win totals.
The 2020-2021 season is based on a 72-game schedule. While COVID-19 complications remain in the air and outbreaks are possible, we can be confident in this full slate finishing out given how the NBA handled the bubble along with the incoming vaccine which will hopefully quell this pandemic.
The NBA, much like the NFL, will do everything in their power to not cancel games.
Rather than our usual 41-41 record representing .500, 36 wins is the mark for a middling team. Essentially, give-or-take five games for your typical estimate on what a team’s record would be. All lines are at -110 and provided by PointsBet.
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NBA Win Totals for 2021 Season on PointsBet
Best NBA Win Total Bets
Milwaukee Bucks: OVER 49.5
The Bucks enter the 2020-2021 season with an extended Giannis Antetokounmpo and freshly acquired Jrue Holiday. While their roster may not be as deep as last season’s, they are top-heavy and should mesh much better with Holiday than they did with Eric Bledsoe.
Expect Donte DiVincenzo to take a moderate leap along with a busy trade deadline. This win total presumes the Bucks win fewer than 70% of their games, which has not been the case since Mike Budenhozler took over.
Los Angeles Clippers: OVER 46.5
The Clippers have a lot to prove this season after a disappointing departure in the second round of the playoffs. They still have their two stars and made up for the loss of Montrezl Harrell by adding Serge Ibaka. This team will be gunning for regular-season wins to prove they aren’t the “little brother" in LA.
Also, don’t forget that Paul George and Kawhi Leonard only played about 10 regular-season games together last year, and they won 68% of them. This roster is easily capable of taking down more than 70% at full strength.
Brooklyn Nets: UNDER 45.5
The Nets have not won 60% of their games since 2001-2002 and are trotting out two stars coming off injury. They have solid depth, especially at guard and center.
However, it’s difficult to buy in to not only Kevin Durant playing a season fully healthy after an Achilles tear, but also Kyrie Irving and his oft-injured self remaining on the court. This team will come out the gates swinging but probably will blow a gasket eventually.
Denver Nuggets: OVER 44.5
The Nuggets are a very good team who did not have much offseason turnover. This roster is cohesive and well-coached. Their appearance in the Western Conference Finals should indicate how well they mesh together as a unit.
They performed well last regular season with a slumping Nikola Jokic early on and could come out hot with a comfortable Michael Porter Jr. and more involved Bol Bol.
Miami Heat: UNDER 44.5
Miami has not won more than 44 games since 2015-2016. This team is good, young, and deep, but they are coming off of a Finals appearance with an even shorter offseason than most.
The Heat hardly added much in the offseason and will probably continue resting Jimmy Butler like they did last year. They are not close to the best Eastern Conference team and might have this inflated total based on last year’s playoffs and hype surrounding Tyler Herro.
Utah Jazz: OVER 42.5
The Jazz are such a weird team, but they know how to win games. Over the past four years, they’ve only had one season with less than a 61% win percentage. They return their entire starting roster from last season and re-added Derrick Favors to the rotation as a backup five to Rudy Gobert.
Mike Conley is coming into the season healthy after a tumultuous 2019-2020 and should have improved chemistry with the roster as a whole, especially in-house All-Star Donovan Mitchell.
Toronto Raptors: OVER 42.5
This is such a chalky pick. The Raptors have not had a season with a win percentage below 58.5% since 2013-2014. The roster is still good and young in plenty of spots, but so much of why they’ve been great over the past decade is thanks to the contributions of the under-heralded Kyle Lowry.
He is not getting any younger as he turns 35 in March but is reportedly in great shape (we’ll see). They are without Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka and have to replace that production between Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher. It is possible to emulate but a tough task for a full-position turnover.
My gut says this should be Under with a potential down season on the way, but recent history says otherwise.
Indiana Pacers: OVER 39.5
The Pacers have surpassed a 55% win rate in each of their past three seasons. That is all that is necessary to beat these odds. The team was fairly inactive this offseason aside from drafting Cassius Stanley and should consider a healthier Victor Oladipo their big acquisition.
Oladipo may not make it through the season in a Pacers uniform, but his contributions will be much more significant given time removed from injury. This is another good, deep team that is a safe bet to make the playoffs even without bubble T.J. Warren carrying on his insane end-of-year stretch.
Detroit Pistons: UNDER 23.5
What the hell is this roster.
My eyes burn every time I open up the depth chart because of their insane offseason aside from the draft selection of Killian Hayes. New general Manager Troy Weaver is either a tanking mastermind who has a three-year plan to acquire as much talent as possible via the draft or is absolutely unfit for the job and expects to compete this year with these asinine signings.
Now, Hayes was a fantastic lottery grab as he had a legitimate case as a top-5 pick, but Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart were over-drafts. They probably want to trade Blake Griffin for parts but he has not been good/healthy enough to deal on his contract. Mason Plumlee and Jahlil Okafor are their new center rotation. They have maybe one true small forward on the roster and a bunch of fours mislabeled as threes. It is a mess in Detroit.
Win Total Bet: Sleeper Pick
Golden State Warriors: UNDER 37.5
These Warriors are not the Golden State of old, and they are still somewhat living off of that magic with this wins total. The Warriors are not deep, their starters are volatile, and Klay Thompson is once again out for the year, this time with a brutal Achilles rupture.
Thompson’s absence is hardly made up for by the wing-combo of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre. Oubre and Wiggins possess “potential" given their age and athleticism but have failed to translate that on the NBA floor thus far.
While the Warriors can absolutely win enough games to surpass 37.5 wins, it will require a healthy, full season from Stephen Curry, which is best to bet against given his recent track record. Draymond Green has aged rapidly as an athlete given the harsh role he’s played as a grinder across the floor, defending multiple positions inside and out.
Not to mention Green’s health has also been a concern.
This team outside of their two corps pieces is not very good despite adding James Wiseman with their 2nd-overall pick. Wiseman is a prototypical stat-stuffer who will start and put up nearly a double-double from the center position but in terms of on-court impact could be harmful given how the NBA has strayed away from his style of ball. Wiseman will need to expeditiously develop an above-average ability to hit from three if we are to see plus contributions from him.
NBA Win Total Over/Unders (PointsBet)
| TEAM | WIN TOTAL |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 49.5 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 46.5 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 46.5 |
| Boston Celtics | 45.5 |
| Brooklyn Nets | 45.5 |
| Miami Heat | 44.5 |
| Denver Nuggets | 44.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 44.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 43.5 |
| Utah Jazz | 42.5 |
| Toronto Raptors | 41.5 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 41.5 |
| Indiana Pacers | 39.5 |
| Phoenix Suns | 38.5 |
| Golden State Warriors | 37.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks | 36.5 |
| Houston Rockets | 34.5 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 34.5 |
| Washington Wizards | 33.5 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 31.5 |
| Orlando Magic | 30.5 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 29.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 29.5 |
| Chicago Bulls | 28.5 |
| Sacramento Kings | 27.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets | 26.5 |
| Detroit Pistons | 23.5 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 22.5 |
| New York Knicks | 21.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 21.5 |
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