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Avalanche vs Oilers Predictions For Game 4 | Puck Line, Over/Under, & Series Bets For Western Conference Final

Posted: Jun 6, 2022Last updated: Jun 7, 2022

The Colorado Avalanche can clinch their first Stanley Cup final berth in 21 years with a victory over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 4 of the Western Conference final at Rogers Place on Monday night.

The Avalanche persevered through injuries, power-play misfortune and the raucous home crowd in Edmonton to claim a 4-2 win in Game 3 on Saturday.

Valeri Nichushkin scored twice, and J.T. Compher struck for the game-winner, his fifth goal in the past four games helping, Colorado push Edmonton to the brink of elimination.

Connor McDavid scored his ninth goal of the playoffs, and Mike Smith made 39 saves but surrendered Compher’s goal on a stoppable shot that broke a 2-all tie with just 7:18 left in regulation.

Here’s a look at our Avalanche-Oilers Game 4 prediction.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Sunday, June 5, at 1 p.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 4 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-125) / Oilers (+105)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+185) / Oilers +1.5 (-225)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (+110) / Under 7 (-135)

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Avalanche vs Oilers Game 4 Prediction

The Avalanche have persevered through adversity in these playoffs, notably the injury to starting goalie Darcy Kuemper.

They also lost No. 2 center Nazem Kadri, their third-leading regular-season scorer who has 14 points in 13 playoff games, for the remainder of the series when Evander Kane cross-checked him just 66 seconds into Game 3.


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Kane, who leads all postseason performers with 13 playoff goals, has been suspended for Game 4, which is another devastating loss for the suddenly punchless Oilers, who have just two goals in the past two games.

Smith did all he could to keep Edmonton afloat, and Ryan McLeod tied Game 3 midway through the third, giving the Oilers faithful some belief. But Compher’s goal took the wind out of Edmonton’s sails.

We thought Game 3 would be the McDavid game, where the best player on Earth put his team on his back and took over. It was looking good when he scored just 38 seconds into the game.

The Avalanche did nothing on the five-minute power play as Smith stood on his head to keep Colorado off the board. The Avalanche had 16 (!) shots on five man-advantages but did not score, mostly due to Smith’s incredible stops.

Still, the fact Colorado persevered proves its championship mettle. Everything was going against the Avalanche, especially after McLeod scored. Maybe Smith’s inconsistency aided the Avs.

But we tend to believe it was more about talent, heart and will that pushed Colorado within a game of the Cup final.

Will McDavid take over and force a Game 5? You can never rule it out. But this series felt like it was over from the moment Compher’s shot crossed the goal line. At this point, I’m betting on a sweep.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 4 Pick

Avalanche 4, Oilers 2

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 4 Best Bets

Under 7 Goals (-135)

Wager: 1 Unit

So Game 1 was the anomaly? The Avalanche have controlled the pace since the raucous and high-flying first game that featured 14 goals and a plethora of scoring chances. The Oilers had more goals in the third period of Game 1 as they’ve scored since and mustered just 53 shots over the past two games — Colorado had 43 shots in Game 3 alone.

With Kadri out, Edmonton could get its offense uncorked. But that could also be neutralized with Kane’s suspension after his hearing with the NHL Department of Player Safety on Sunday led to a one-game ban.

Plus, the Oilers played 58:54 without Kadri on the ice and only scored once.

Take the Under in Game 4.

Avalanche -1.5 Puck Line (+185)

Wager: 1 Unit

Colorado moneyline at -130 or longer goes without saying, but the Avalanche have won each of the first three games by at least two goals and have scored an empty-netter twice.

When teams face elimination they get even more desperate, which means Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft is more likely to pull Smith and keep him pulled no matter the deficit.

That should play into Colorado’s hands very much and lead to a big payout for puck-line bettors.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Oilers Game 3 Prediction

The Colorado Avalanche can move within a win of the Stanley Cup final with a victory over the Edmonton Oilers in Game 3 of the Western Conference final Saturday night at Rogers Place in Edmonton.

After a wild, 8-6 win over the Oilers in Game 1, the Avalanche authored a surgical performance in their 4-0 victory in Game 2. Colorado goalie Pavel Francouz, starting in place of the injured Darcy Kuemper, stopped 24 shots for his second career playoff shutout.

The Avalanche scored three second-period goals in a span of 2:04, including tallies by Artturi Lehkonen and Josh Manson that came 15 seconds apart.

Edmonton goalie Mike Smith stopped 36 shots in defeat, just two days after he was pulled in Game 1. The Oilers were shut out for just the second time in 14 playoff games.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Friday, June 3 at 10 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 3 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-125) / Oilers (+105)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+180) / Oilers +1.5 (-225)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (-110) / Under 7 (-110)

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 3 Prediction

Colorado dominated from the opening faceoff, and only Smith kept the Avalanche from building a huge first-period advantage. Still, the Avalanche finally cracked the Oilers, scoring the three second-period goals and holding Edmonton to just 11 shots over the final two periods.

The series shifts northwest to Edmonton, where Smith has played lights out. He has a .936 save percentage and a shutout, helping the Oilers win four of their six home playoff games this year.

We’re also waiting for Connor McDavid to exert his dominance on the series. He had about as quiet a three-point game as any player could in Game 1, his goal cut Colorado’s lead to 7-4 and each of his assists were secondary helpers.

McDavid was then held off the scoresheet and posted just two shots on goal in Game 2. We believe Game 3 will be the McDavid game; the one where the best player on the planet puts the Oilers on his back.

He has 14 points in the playoffs at Rogers Place, and playing at home will afford Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft the last change, where he undoubtedly will craft a game plan to get McDavid and linemate Leon Draisaitl away from burly Avalanche center Nazem Kadri.

The Oilers followed their only shutout loss this postseason with a four-goal outburst, where McDavid had three points himself. We predicted this series would end in five, but for that to be the case Edmonton will still need to win a game. This should be it.

Plus, Colorado is 5-0 on the road in these playoffs and is due for a clunker away from Ball Arena.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 3 Pick

Oilers 5, Avalanche 3

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 3 Best Bets

Oilers Moneyline (+105)

Wager: 1 Unit

Edmonton should be able to get off the mat and make this a series in Game 3. The Oilers have too much skill and star power to get swept, even against a team as dominant as the Avalanche.

Plus-money odds on a home dog that’s played well in its friendly confines are too good to pass up.

Over 7 Goals (-110)

Wager: 1 Unit

Edmonton’s high-octane offense is not likely to be shut down in two straight games, and Colorado is averaging 4.5 goals per game this postseason — including more than five goals per game in road contests.

Smith should be better, but Edmonton’s offense should be more engaged and get to Francouz.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Oilers Game 2 Prediction

Game 1 of the Western Conference final was a perfect mess of elite skill, chaos, and of course goals.

The Colorado Avalanche took the series edge with an 8-6 victory over the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday. Colorado, which built a 7-3 lead and chased Edmonton starting goalie Mike Smith, is now three wins from its first Stanley Cup final berth since 2001.

Edmonton fell to 0-3 in Game 1’s this postseason but has not lost in any Game 2 during the Stanley Cup playoffs. The second game, which also is at Ball Arena in Denver, is Thursday night.

Here’s a look at what to expect.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, June 1 at 11 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 2 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-175) / Oilers (+145)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+125) / Oilers +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (-135) / Under 7 (+110)

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 2 Prediction

There’s almost no way Game 2 can match Game 1, which featured 14 goals — the second most in Stanley Cup playoff history — and a stunning display of elite skill, dynamic offense, and controversy.

Still, this is going to be an offense-heavy series, particularly with Colorado likely to go with Pavel Francouz in net for Game 2 after starter Darcy Kuemper left during the second period due to an upper-body injury.

Francouz was good during the regular season (15-5-1, .916 save percentage, 2.55 goals-against average) but allowed three goals on 21 shots in Game 2 and has just a .889 save percentage and 3.59 goals-against average during the playoffs.

It appears Colorado will need to score a lot to advance. Fortunately, they have the horses to do so. Nathan MacKinnon scored for the second time in three games, defenseman Cale Makar had three points, including a controversial goal that was upheld after video review, and third-line center J.T. Compher became the night’s unlikely hero by scoring twice.

Smith, who was also pulled during Game 1 of Edmonton’s series against the Calgary Flames, allowed six goals on 25 shots but was under siege. Yet the move to replace him with backup Mikko Koskinen energized the Oilers, and they got within 7-6 in the third period before Gabriel Landeskog sealed the game with an empty-netter.

Edmonton only needs to win one in Colorado to take home-ice advantage. Still, the Avalanche have another gear to get to, especially defensively. They won’t be able to shut down the Oilers’ incredible top line of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and either Zach Hyman or Evander Kane. But they still should win if they can keep Edmonton’s role players off the board.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 2 Pick

Avalanche 5, Oilers 4 (OT)

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 2 Best Bets

Over 7 Goals (-130)

Wager: 1 Unit

Unfortunately, we did not account for this much offense in Game 1 but we won’t make the same mistake twice.

Edmonton’s games are going to have goals since it is equally skilled and porous in net. In the worst-case scenario, this will push. But based on what we saw in Game 1, there shouldn’t be a 50 percent drop in goals in Game 2.


PREVIOUSLY: Avalanche vs Oilers Game 1 Predictions

Skill, speed, and offense expect to be on the menu when the high-octane Colorado Avalanche face off against the offensive-minded Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference final.

Perennial Hart Trophy finalist Connor McDavid has been lights-out in the playoffs and is tied with linemate Leon Draisaitl for the points lead among playoff skaters (26).

McDavid had 14 points in Edmonton’s seven-game series win against the Los Angeles Kings, then Draisaitl, who is widely believed to be playing with a lower-body injury, had 17 points in the Oilers’ five-game series win against the Calgary Flames.

Yet, Edmonton expects to face its toughest challenge yet. The Avalanche are a machine, led by Conn Smythe Trophy favorites Nathan MacKinnon (+350) and Cale Makar (+450), they are 8-2 in the playoffs and have outscored opponents 43-28 during the postseason so far.

Game 1 is Tuesday in Denver. We hope the series lives up to the advanced billing. Let’s take a look at the best bets for Game 1 and the series.

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, May 31 at 10 a.m. ET.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 1 Odds

  • Moneyline: Avalanche (-190) / Oilers (+155)
  • Puck Line: Avalanche -1.5 (+125) / Oilers +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (+105) / Under 7 (-130)

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 1 Prediction

The Oilers are 8-4 in the playoffs and coming off a convincing, five-game series win over the archrival Flames. But they’ve had a hard time getting going, falling in Game 1 of each of their two previous series before rallying to win Game 2 and take over the series.

Colorado, which is in the conference final for the first time in 20 years, finally got over the second-round hump with its emotional six-game series win over the St. Louis Blues. The Avs have something the Oilers haven’t seen yet in these playoffs: a shutdown defense pairing capable of holding McDavid, Draisaitl, and their red-hot linemate Evander Kane in line.

No group can truly shut down McDavid, who is easily the best player in the sport, but Makar and Devon Toews should be a more capable duo than any group LA or Calgary threw at them.

Trust Colorado to get to Edmonton goalie Mike Smith too.

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 1 Pick

Avalanche 4, Oilers 2

Avalanche vs Oilers Game 1 Best Bets

Avalanche -1.5 Puck Line (+125)

WAGER: 1 Unit

We have a suspicion that the Oilers are due a letdown after winning four straight against the Flames, including their emotional series-clincher where McDavid wrapped it with an OT winner.

The Avalanche offense should be able to pump in some goals on Smith, who is also due a regression after standing on his head for wide swaths of play against Calgary (.907 save percentage in five games).

Under 7 Goals (-130)

WAGER: 1 Unit

As much as we’d love to see a series loaded with offense — and believe me, we will see it at some point — eight goals in a conference-final series game is an insanely high number. As a hockey fan who came of age in the dead-puck era, the notion of eight goals in a conference-final game scares me, and that isn’t even the bettor in me talking.

This series should be offense-heavy, and maybe seven pushes, but I can’t in good conscience advocate for someone to bet the Over without seeing how these teams intend to play the series. Colorado probably wants to play fast but also has the defense to limit the McDavid line. The goaltending is surely a question for both sides. But betting on eight goals is tough.


Avalanche vs Oilers Series Winner Odds

All NHL gameday odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and current as of Tuesday, May 31 at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Avalanche (-250)
  • Oilers (+205)

Avalanche vs Oilers Series Prediction

As a hockey fan, I love the fact the United States is seeing a McDavid-led run deep in the playoffs. The NHL has been pining for this since Edmonton picked him first overall in 2015, and the fact the Oilers have won two playoff rounds but also that their captain is lighting up the scoresheet is excellent for the game.

But Edmonton’s top-line production is masking the fact that it hasn’t gotten much output from the rest of the lineup — McDavid-Draisaitl-Kane has combined for 26 goals, and the rest of the Oilers team has combined for 26 goals through 12 playoff games.

Colorado coach Jared Bednar, one of the best there is, must have a game plan to neutralize McDavid and Draisaitl, which means they’ll probably see a lot of Makar, Toews, and burly center Nazem Kadri, particularly in the games in Colorado where Bednar can take advantage of the last change.

That would also free up Colorado’s top line of MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Arturri Lehkonen to focus on driving play and playing offense against Edmonton’s suspect defense unit.

Colorado should also have the edge in goal. Darcy Kuemper has struggled at times during the playoffs (2.44 goals-against average, .904 save percentage) but should be able to keep up with Smith better than Calgary goalie Jacob Markstrom did.

Frankly, we would be surprised if this is a long series.

Avalanche vs Oilers Series Pick

Avalanche in 5

Avalanche vs Oilers Series Best Bets

Avalanche -1.5 Games (-115)

WAGER: 1 Unit

If you trust the Avs to take down the Oilers in five, the odds jump to (+190). But given the odds for this, and the potential for McDavid to steal at least one game, Avalanche in six seems like a safer bet.

Author

Pat Pickens

Pat Pickens is a seasoned sportswriter who has covered the NHL since 2013 for various websites, including The New York Times, NHL.com, Sportsnet.ca, USA Today, the Associated Press and many others. His debut book, titled "The Whalers" about the history of the NHL's Hartford Whalers, was released in October 2021. His greatest successful wager was an LA Kings puck-line bet (+200) in Game 1 of the 2012 Western Conference Final.

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